The results in the table were generated by simulating the NCAA tournament using the same simulator we used for Bracketology. The probabilities shown represent the proportion of the 1,000 simulations run in which each team advanced to the various stages of the tournament.
Last updated: May 23 9:42 PM
 TeamWins TitleMakes FinalMakes Final 4Makes Quarters
1Penn State56.8%100.0%100.0%100.0%
2North Carolina43.2%100.0%100.0%100.0%
3Villanova0.0%0.0%100.0%100.0%
4Yale0.0%0.0%100.0%100.0%
5Richmond0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
6Maryland0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
7Boston U0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
8Georgetown0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
9Providence0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Penn0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Saint Joseph’s0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Marist0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Duke0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Syracuse0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15UMBC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Cornell0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17UMass0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
The table shows the proportion of the 1,000 simulations run in which each team advanced to the various stages of the tournament.
Last updated: May 23 9:42 PM
 TeamChampFinalsSemisQuarters
1Penn State56.8%100.0%100.0%100.0%
2North Carolina43.2%100.0%100.0%100.0%
3Villanova0.0%0.0%100.0%100.0%
4Yale0.0%0.0%100.0%100.0%
5Richmond0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
6Maryland0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
7Boston U0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
8Georgetown0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
9Providence0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Penn0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Saint Joseph’s0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Marist0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Duke0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Syracuse0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15UMBC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16Cornell0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17UMass0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%