The results in the table were generated by simulating the NCAA tournament using the same simulator we used for Bracketology. The probabilities shown represent the proportion of the 10,000 simulations run in which each team advanced to the various stages of the tournament.
Last updated: May 19 11:12 PM
 TeamWins TitleMakes FinalMakes Final 4Makes Quarters
1Penn State39.3%54.0%100.0%100.0%
2Yale31.4%46.0%100.0%100.0%
3Duke20.0%61.2%100.0%100.0%
4Virginia9.3%38.8%100.0%100.0%
5Notre Dame0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
6Maryland0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
7Penn0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
8Loyola0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
9Richmond0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Johns Hopkins0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Army0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Marist0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Robert Morris0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Towson0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Syracuse0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16UMBC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17Georgetown0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
The table shows the proportion of the 10,000 simulations run in which each team advanced to the various stages of the tournament.
Last updated: May 19 11:12 PM
 TeamChampFinalsSemisQuarters
1Penn State39.3%54.0%100.0%100.0%
2Yale31.4%46.0%100.0%100.0%
3Duke20.0%61.2%100.0%100.0%
4Virginia9.3%38.8%100.0%100.0%
5Notre Dame0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
6Maryland0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
7Penn0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
8Loyola0.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%
9Richmond0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
10Johns Hopkins0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Army0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Marist0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Robert Morris0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Towson0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
15Syracuse0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
16UMBC0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
17Georgetown0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%