The results in the table were generated by simulating the remainder of the regular season and conference tournaments. The probabilities shown represent the proportion of the 1,000 simulations run in which each team won their conference tournment and were included in the NCAA tournament field along with the average projected RPI across all runs. I wrote a post describing the methodology.
Last updated: May 1 6:38 AM
 TeamAverage RPIConf Champ Prob.At-LargeNCAA Tournament Prob.
1Virginia4.5—%100.0%100.0%
2Penn State1.065.734.3100.0
3Duke3.7100.0100.0
4Yale3.556.343.7100.0
5Notre Dame7.399.999.9
6Loyola5.557.642.399.9
7Syracuse9.099.499.4
8Penn6.524.073.997.9
9Maryland7.223.767.891.5
10Towson8.630.158.688.7
11Johns Hopkins10.26.460.066.4
12UMass17.748.048.0
13Denver13.046.50.146.6
14Vermont42.244.044.0
15Georgetown18.140.140.1
16High Point20.339.139.1
17Robert Morris29.037.837.8
18Air Force20.837.537.5
19Cornell12.115.319.134.4
20Quinnipiac51.230.130.1
21Canisius50.529.529.5
22Sacred Heart35.527.027.0
23Albany44.726.926.9
24Hobart29.522.922.9
25Detroit46.021.621.6
26Boston U23.620.220.2
27Marist33.818.818.8
28Delaware28.318.118.1
29Richmond25.317.217.2
30Stony Brook41.416.716.7
31Army18.613.813.8
32UMBC55.812.412.4
33Mount St Marys36.012.312.3
34Lehigh35.38.48.4
35Villanova15.57.77.7
36Jacksonville42.06.26.2
37Providence44.25.75.7
38Brown27.64.44.4
39Rutgers21.34.24.2
40Drexel30.53.83.8
41Ohio State13.20.90.9
42St. John’s56.3
43Hofstra44.8
44Bryant60.8
45Marquette37.9
46VMI64.4
47Holy Cross34.4
48Navy29.6
49Saint Joseph’s52.9
50Lafayette60.9
51NJIT71.0
52Michigan34.6
53Harvard42.3
54North Carolina17.5
55Princeton24.5
56Bucknell35.5
57Fairfield51.6
58Manhattan68.6
59Monmouth61.3
60Binghamton68.1
61Bellarmine63.9
62Colgate48.8
63Dartmouth69.6
64Mercer67.3
65UMass-Lowell59.0
66Wagner72.0
67Furman56.9
68Hartford64.2
69Cleveland State43.6
70Siena56.7
71Utah53.3
72St. Bonaventure65.9
The table shows the proportion of the 1,000 simulations run in which the various outcomes occurred as well as the average RPI across all runs. I wrote a post describing the methodology.
Last updated: May 1 6:38 AM
 TeamAvg RPI.Conf Champ.At-LargeNCAA
1Virginia4.5—%100.0%100.0%
2Penn State1.065.734.3100.0
3Duke3.7100.0100.0
4Yale3.556.343.7100.0
5Notre Dame7.399.999.9
6Loyola5.557.642.399.9
7Syracuse9.099.499.4
8Penn6.524.073.997.9
9Maryland7.223.767.891.5
10Towson8.630.158.688.7
11Johns Hopkins10.26.460.066.4
12UMass17.748.048.0
13Denver13.046.50.146.6
14Vermont42.244.044.0
15Georgetown18.140.140.1
16High Point20.339.139.1
17Robert Morris29.037.837.8
18Air Force20.837.537.5
19Cornell12.115.319.134.4
20Quinnipiac51.230.130.1
21Canisius50.529.529.5
22Sacred Heart35.527.027.0
23Albany44.726.926.9
24Hobart29.522.922.9
25Detroit46.021.621.6
26Boston U23.620.220.2
27Marist33.818.818.8
28Delaware28.318.118.1
29Richmond25.317.217.2
30Stony Brook41.416.716.7
31Army18.613.813.8
32UMBC55.812.412.4
33Mount St Marys36.012.312.3
34Lehigh35.38.48.4
35Villanova15.57.77.7
36Jacksonville42.06.26.2
37Providence44.25.75.7
38Brown27.64.44.4
39Rutgers21.34.24.2
40Drexel30.53.83.8
41Ohio State13.20.90.9
42St. John’s56.3
43Hofstra44.8
44Bryant60.8
45Marquette37.9
46VMI64.4
47Holy Cross34.4
48Navy29.6
49Saint Joseph’s52.9
50Lafayette60.9
51NJIT71.0
52Michigan34.6
53Harvard42.3
54North Carolina17.5
55Princeton24.5
56Bucknell35.5
57Fairfield51.6
58Manhattan68.6
59Monmouth61.3
60Binghamton68.1
61Bellarmine63.9
62Colgate48.8
63Dartmouth69.6
64Mercer67.3
65UMass-Lowell59.0
66Wagner72.0
67Furman56.9
68Hartford64.2
69Cleveland State43.6
70Siena56.7
71Utah53.3
72St. Bonaventure65.9