The results in the table were generated by simulating the remainder of the regular season and conference tournaments. The probabilities shown represent the proportion of the 3,000 simulations run in which each team won their conference tournment and were included in the NCAA tournament field along with the average projected RPI across all runs. I wrote a post describing the methodology.
Last updated: Apr 21 9:22 PM
 TeamAverage RPIConf Champ Prob.At-LargeNCAA Tournament Prob.
1Penn State1.059.8%40.2%100.0%
2Duke3.2100.0100.0
3Syracuse5.999.399.3
4Virginia6.699.199.1
5Maryland4.230.468.298.6
6Yale5.348.748.997.6
7Loyola6.959.336.796.0
8Notre Dame8.793.993.9
9Penn6.725.368.693.9
10Ohio State9.25.479.584.9
11Towson10.529.232.661.8
12Cornell11.820.827.047.8
13Vermont37.747.547.5
14UMass18.942.542.5
15Denver13.739.51.140.6
16Air Force21.136.236.2
17High Point21.935.835.8
18Albany37.035.435.4
19Hobart25.432.832.8
20Detroit33.932.032.0
21Robert Morris31.731.631.6
22Canisius46.529.729.7
23Georgetown18.528.928.9
24Richmond24.424.524.5
25Quinnipiac50.221.521.5
26Delaware28.521.421.4
27Villanova14.418.71.620.3
28Boston U20.219.619.6
29Sacred Heart37.118.118.1
30Marist36.915.915.9
31Mount St Marys39.613.513.5
32Stony Brook44.812.912.9
33Lehigh30.811.211.2
34Drexel28.56.86.8
35Army18.56.56.5
36Johns Hopkins12.42.93.26.1
37Providence47.75.85.8
38Marquette35.45.45.4
39Saint Joseph’s50.63.93.9
40Princeton25.43.83.8
41Jacksonville42.73.53.5
42Bucknell33.82.52.5
43UMass-Lowell58.02.12.1
44St. John’s56.11.71.7
45Rutgers21.81.51.5
46Brown35.41.41.4
47UMBC58.81.41.4
48Siena54.00.80.8
49Holy Cross39.00.60.6
50Hartford64.30.60.6
51Navy34.40.30.3
52North Carolina21.00.10.1
53Hofstra45.0
54Bryant60.3
55VMI65.1
56Lafayette62.3
57NJIT70.9
58Michigan43.7
59Harvard41.5
60Fairfield51.0
61Manhattan65.1
62Monmouth61.8
63Binghamton69.4
64Bellarmine65.0
65Colgate43.2
66Dartmouth68.0
67Mercer67.7
68Wagner72.0
69Furman57.6
70Cleveland State47.3
71Utah55.1
72St. Bonaventure64.9
The table shows the proportion of the 3,000 simulations run in which the various outcomes occurred as well as the average RPI across all runs. I wrote a post describing the methodology.
Last updated: Apr 21 9:22 PM
 TeamAvg RPI.Conf Champ.At-LargeNCAA
1Penn State1.059.8%40.2%100.0%
2Duke3.2100.0100.0
3Syracuse5.999.399.3
4Virginia6.699.199.1
5Maryland4.230.468.298.6
6Yale5.348.748.997.6
7Loyola6.959.336.796.0
8Notre Dame8.793.993.9
9Penn6.725.368.693.9
10Ohio State9.25.479.584.9
11Towson10.529.232.661.8
12Cornell11.820.827.047.8
13Vermont37.747.547.5
14UMass18.942.542.5
15Denver13.739.51.140.6
16Air Force21.136.236.2
17High Point21.935.835.8
18Albany37.035.435.4
19Hobart25.432.832.8
20Detroit33.932.032.0
21Robert Morris31.731.631.6
22Canisius46.529.729.7
23Georgetown18.528.928.9
24Richmond24.424.524.5
25Quinnipiac50.221.521.5
26Delaware28.521.421.4
27Villanova14.418.71.620.3
28Boston U20.219.619.6
29Sacred Heart37.118.118.1
30Marist36.915.915.9
31Mount St Marys39.613.513.5
32Stony Brook44.812.912.9
33Lehigh30.811.211.2
34Drexel28.56.86.8
35Army18.56.56.5
36Johns Hopkins12.42.93.26.1
37Providence47.75.85.8
38Marquette35.45.45.4
39Saint Joseph’s50.63.93.9
40Princeton25.43.83.8
41Jacksonville42.73.53.5
42Bucknell33.82.52.5
43UMass-Lowell58.02.12.1
44St. John’s56.11.71.7
45Rutgers21.81.51.5
46Brown35.41.41.4
47UMBC58.81.41.4
48Siena54.00.80.8
49Holy Cross39.00.60.6
50Hartford64.30.60.6
51Navy34.40.30.3
52North Carolina21.00.10.1
53Hofstra45.0
54Bryant60.3
55VMI65.1
56Lafayette62.3
57NJIT70.9
58Michigan43.7
59Harvard41.5
60Fairfield51.0
61Manhattan65.1
62Monmouth61.8
63Binghamton69.4
64Bellarmine65.0
65Colgate43.2
66Dartmouth68.0
67Mercer67.7
68Wagner72.0
69Furman57.6
70Cleveland State47.3
71Utah55.1
72St. Bonaventure64.9