The results in the table were generated by simulating the remainder of the regular season and conference tournaments. The probabilities shown represent the proportion of the 500 simulations run in which each team won their conference tournment and were included in the NCAA tournament field along with the average projected RPI across all runs. I wrote a post describing the methodology.
Last updated: May 5 9:23 PM
 TeamAverage RPIConf Champ Prob.At-LargeNCAA Tournament Prob.
1Penn State1.0100.0%—%100.0%
2Penn2.3100.0100.0
3Virginia3.4100.0100.0
4Duke3.6100.0100.0
5Yale4.7100.0100.0
6Loyola6.3100.0100.0
7Towson7.6100.0100.0
8Johns Hopkins8.0100.0100.0
9Notre Dame8.8100.0100.0
10Syracuse9.3100.0100.0
11Maryland11.0100.0100.0
12Army15.0100.0100.0
13Georgetown16.0100.0100.0
14Richmond19.7100.0100.0
15Robert Morris24.0100.0100.0
16Marist28.0100.0100.0
17UMBC51.0100.0100.0
18Cornell12.0
19Denver13.3
20Ohio State13.7
21Villanova17.0
22North Carolina18.0
23High Point19.3
24Rutgers21.0
25UMass22.0
26Air Force23.0
27Princeton25.0
28Drexel26.0
29Boston U27.0
30Navy29.0
31Hobart30.0
32Brown31.0
33Lehigh32.0
34Delaware33.0
35Bucknell34.0
36Mount St Marys35.0
37Holy Cross36.0
38Michigan37.0
39Marquette38.0
40Sacred Heart39.0
41Stony Brook40.0
42Jacksonville41.0
43Harvard42.0
44Hofstra43.3
45Cleveland State43.7
46Vermont45.0
47Providence46.0
48Colgate47.0
49Albany48.0
50Detroit49.0
51Quinnipiac50.0
52Fairfield52.0
53Canisius53.0
54Saint Joseph’s54.0
55Utah55.0
56Siena56.0
57Furman57.3
58St. John’s57.7
59UMass-Lowell59.0
60Lafayette60.0
61Monmouth61.0
62Bryant62.0
63Bellarmine63.0
64VMI64.0
65Hartford65.0
66St. Bonaventure66.0
67Binghamton67.0
68Mercer68.3
69Manhattan68.7
70Dartmouth70.0
71NJIT71.0
72Wagner72.0
The table shows the proportion of the 500 simulations run in which the various outcomes occurred as well as the average RPI across all runs. I wrote a post describing the methodology.
Last updated: May 5 9:23 PM
 TeamAvg RPI.Conf Champ.At-LargeNCAA
1Penn State1.0100.0%—%100.0%
2Penn2.3100.0100.0
3Virginia3.4100.0100.0
4Duke3.6100.0100.0
5Yale4.7100.0100.0
6Loyola6.3100.0100.0
7Towson7.6100.0100.0
8Johns Hopkins8.0100.0100.0
9Notre Dame8.8100.0100.0
10Syracuse9.3100.0100.0
11Maryland11.0100.0100.0
12Army15.0100.0100.0
13Georgetown16.0100.0100.0
14Richmond19.7100.0100.0
15Robert Morris24.0100.0100.0
16Marist28.0100.0100.0
17UMBC51.0100.0100.0
18Cornell12.0
19Denver13.3
20Ohio State13.7
21Villanova17.0
22North Carolina18.0
23High Point19.3
24Rutgers21.0
25UMass22.0
26Air Force23.0
27Princeton25.0
28Drexel26.0
29Boston U27.0
30Navy29.0
31Hobart30.0
32Brown31.0
33Lehigh32.0
34Delaware33.0
35Bucknell34.0
36Mount St Marys35.0
37Holy Cross36.0
38Michigan37.0
39Marquette38.0
40Sacred Heart39.0
41Stony Brook40.0
42Jacksonville41.0
43Harvard42.0
44Hofstra43.3
45Cleveland State43.7
46Vermont45.0
47Providence46.0
48Colgate47.0
49Albany48.0
50Detroit49.0
51Quinnipiac50.0
52Fairfield52.0
53Canisius53.0
54Saint Joseph’s54.0
55Utah55.0
56Siena56.0
57Furman57.3
58St. John’s57.7
59UMass-Lowell59.0
60Lafayette60.0
61Monmouth61.0
62Bryant62.0
63Bellarmine63.0
64VMI64.0
65Hartford65.0
66St. Bonaventure66.0
67Binghamton67.0
68Mercer68.3
69Manhattan68.7
70Dartmouth70.0
71NJIT71.0
72Wagner72.0