Win probability is an estimate based on the win percentage of every team that has been in a comparable time and score situation. We start with the basic time and score, then add or subtract win probability from each team depending on the recent sequence of plays and what that tells us about the likelihood that each team will score. Please, please, please do not treat this as a prediction. 90% win probability does not mean that the team has a 90% chance to win; it means that teams in the current situation have won 90% of the time. Win probabilities at the opening face-off are based on our current ELO ratings.

Virginia Win Probability: 100.0%
Recent Plays
Game State Team Play Elapsed VA Win Odds
VA +1 Unforced Turnover 9s -4.2%
VA +1 Penalty - 1 min 0s +3.5%
VA +1 Goalie Change 41s +1.2%
VA +1 Assisted Goal 0s -4.5%
VA +2 Timeout 0s 0.0%
VA +2 Faceoff Win 6s +1.4%
VA +2 Good Clear 3s +0.4%
VA +2 Ground Ball 3s +0.4%
VA +2 Ground Ball 2s +1.1%
VA +2 Forced Turnover 8s -1.1%
VA +2 Timeout 0s -0.2%
VA +2 Goalie Change 41s +2.2%
VA +2 Ground Ball 11s -2.3%
VA +2 Saved Shot 1s +0.2%
VA +2 Ground Ball 1s -0.2%
VA +2 Forced Turnover 7s +0.7%
VA +2 Faceoff Win 0s -0.7%
VA +2 Assisted Goal 34s -0.4%
VA +3 Missed Shot 14s +0.2%
VA +3 Penalty - 1 min 2s +0.3%