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Win probability is an estimate based on the win percentage of every team that has been in a comparable time and score situation. We start with the basic time and score, then add or subtract win probability from each team depending on the recent sequence of plays and what that tells us about the likelihood that each team will score. Please, please, please do not treat this as a prediction. 90% win probability does not mean that the team has a 90% chance to win; it means that teams in the current situation have won 90% of the time. Win probabilities at the opening face-off are based on our current ELO ratings.

Vermont Win Probability: 95.0%
Recent Plays  
Game State Team Play Elapsed V Win Odds
V +5 Missed Shot 4s
V +5 Penalty – 1 min 9s +0.1%
V +5 Unforced Turnover
V +5 Ground Ball 4s
V +5 Saved Shot 12s +0.2%
V +5 Goalie Change 2s
V +5 Penalty – 1 min
V +5 Forced Turnover 1m 11s +0.9%
V +4 Penalty – 1 min 31s +0.4%
V +5 Assisted Goal
V +4 Forced Turnover 12s +0.2%
V +4 Failed Clear 6s
V +4 Ground Ball 2s
V +4 Forced Turnover 25s +1.0%
V +4 Shot Clock On 1m 0s +0.6%
V +4 Good Clear 3s –0.1%
V +4 Saved Shot 20s +0.2%
V +4 Missed Shot 36s +0.5%
V +4 Ground Ball 25s +0.9%
V +4 Missed Shot 13s –0.8%