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Win probability is an estimate based on the win percentage of every team that has been in a comparable time and score situation. We start with the basic time and score, then add or subtract win probability from each team depending on the recent sequence of plays and what that tells us about the likelihood that each team will score. Please, please, please do not treat this as a prediction. 90% win probability does not mean that the team has a 90% chance to win; it means that teams in the current situation have won 90% of the time. Win probabilities at the opening face-off are based on our current ELO ratings.

Mount St Marys Win Probability: 94.8%
Recent Plays  
Game State Team Play Elapsed Mount Win Odds
Mount +9 Faceoff Win
Mount +9 Unassisted Goal 6s +0.1%
Mount +10 Missed Shot 4s
Mount +10 Ground Ball 5s +0.1%
Mount +10 Unforced Turnover 1m 1s +1.4%
Mount +10 Faceoff Win
Mount +10 Assisted Goal 1s
Mount +9 Assisted Goal 43s +1.0%
Mount +8 Pipe Shot 9s +0.2%
Mount +8 Saved Shot 9s +0.2%
Mount +8 Missed Shot 16s +0.4%
Mount +8 Penalty – 30 sec 2s
Mount +8 Missed Shot 8s +0.2%
Mount +8 Good Clear 5s +0.1%
Mount +8 Ground Ball 11s +0.3%
Mount +8 Saved Shot 28s +0.6%
Mount +8 Faceoff Win
Mount +8 Assisted Goal 19s +0.4%
Mount +9 Ground Ball 9s +0.2%
Mount +9 Forced Turnover 20s +0.4%