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Win probability is an estimate based on the win percentage of every team that has been in a comparable time and score situation. We start with the basic time and score, then add or subtract win probability from each team depending on the recent sequence of plays and what that tells us about the likelihood that each team will score. Please, please, please do not treat this as a prediction. 90% win probability does not mean that the team has a 90% chance to win; it means that teams in the current situation have won 90% of the time. Win probabilities at the opening face-off are based on our current ELO ratings.

Recent Plays  
Game State Team Play Elapsed UMD Win Odds  
UMD +6 Missed Shot 20s +0.13%  
UMD +6 Good Clear 4s +0.04%  
UMD +6 Saved Shot 21s +0.39%  
UMD +6 Good Clear 5s +0.17%  
UMD +6 Saved Shot 7s +0.05%  
UMD +6 Unforced Turnover 16s +0.97%  
UMD +6 Failed Clear 5s –0.28%  
UMD +6 Missed Shot 3s –0.34%  
UMD +6 Ground Ball 7s –0.22%  
UMD +6 Missed Shot 1m 8s +0.38%  
UMD +6 Good Clear 7s +0.08%  
UMD +6 Unforced Turnover 28s +0.31%  
UMD +6 Missed Shot +0.00%  
UMD +6 Penalty – 30 sec 28s +0.30%  
UMD +6 Ground Ball 4s +0.04%  
UMD +6 Good Clear 6s +0.07%  
UMD +6 Forced Turnover 25s +0.67%  
UMD +6 Missed Shot 55s +0.33%  
UMD +6 Good Clear 9s –0.03%  
UMD +6 Saved Shot 1m 31s +0.96%