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Win probability is an estimate based on the win percentage of every team that has been in a comparable time and score situation. We start with the basic time and score, then add or subtract win probability from each team depending on the recent sequence of plays and what that tells us about the likelihood that each team will score. Please, please, please do not treat this as a prediction. 90% win probability does not mean that the team has a 90% chance to win; it means that teams in the current situation have won 90% of the time. Win probabilities at the opening face-off are based on our current ELO ratings.

Johns Hopkins Win Probability: 0.0%
Recent Plays
Game State Team Play Elapsed JHU Win Odds
NC +2 Unforced Turnover 26s –0.8%
NC +2 Missed Shot 9s +1.3%
NC +2 Penalty – 1 min 10s +2.2%
NC +2 Missed Shot 16s –0.8%
NC +2 Faceoff Win +0.4%
NC +2 Unassisted Goal 6s –5.4%
NC +1 Shot Clock On 43s –6.3%
NC +1 Good Clear 2s –5.8%
NC +1 Unforced Turnover 11s –12.0%
NC +1 Missed Shot 20s +3.6%
NC +1 Missed Shot 37s –8.5%
NC +1 Unforced Turnover 5s +3.2%
NC +1 Faceoff Win –4.1%
NC +1 Assisted Goal 15s +19.6%
NC +2 Missed Shot 30s +2.8%
NC +2 Missed Shot 9s +3.0%
NC +2 Good Clear 13s –2.1%
NC +2 Faceoff Win +1.7%
NC +2 Unassisted Goal 56s +6.5%
NC +3 Faceoff Win