NELJ 2022 Season Preview: NEC
Now for something new. I’ve run through several of the New England programs and put them under the LacrosseReference microscope. This isn’t going to contain very many predictions. My goal is to give you a sense of where each program is heading into the 2022 season and which players and games are likely to determine their success or failure as the season unfolds.
Today we are going to cover the 3 New England teams from the NEC. The teams are presented in order of their current LaxElo ratings. Let’s go…
Bryant MLAX
Bryant, remarkably, had two of the top 5 most efficient players in Division 1 Men’s lacrosse last season. Marc ORourke finished 5th and Isaiah Davis was the most efficient player in all of D1 MLAX (measured by usage-adjusted EGA). Add the Bulldogs’ offensive weapons to a young two-headed faceoff monster and it would appear that this team is destined for another NEC title.
Not so fast. When I look at the defensive side of the ball, there are questions. Losing Jake Fiske means that Coach Pressler is losing a top defenseman. For his career, Fiske had a 4.60 caused-turnover to penalty ratio. When you look at the defense overall, they return just 61% of their production, only behind Wagner in the conference.
Hobart, Saint Joe’s, Merrimack; these teams are right there at the Bulldogs’ heels. The 2021 defense came away with an NEC-best 26.8% opponent-adjusted efficiency rating (18th in the country). If there is anything that’s going to knock the Bulldogs off their perch, it’s how well they can adapt to a new rotation on that side.
Schedule Round-up
Strength-of-Schedule is estimated using the LacrosseReference Lax-Elo model, which assigns every team a rating based on their wins-and-losses and the scores of those games. For reference, the average team is assigned a 1500 rating.
Bryant MLAX Overall SOS: 1435 (59th nationally)
Non-Conference: 1475 (48th)
The toughest 3-game stretch for Bryant MLAX comes between Mar 26th and Apr 9th. Their average win probability in these 3 games is 56.5%
| Opponent | LaxElo | Rank | WP |
|---|---|---|---|
| @ Providence | 1508 | 39th | 61% |
| @ Boston U | 1533 | 37th | 57% |
| vs Dartmouth | 1314 | 62nd | 83% |
| vs Bellarmine | 1310 | 63rd | 83% |
| @ Vermont | 1604 | 22nd | 47% |
| vs Air Force | 1460 | 46th | 67% |
| vs Merrimack | 1449 | 48th | 69% |
| @ Hobart | 1570 | 31st | 52% |
| vs LIU | 1444 | 49th | 69% |
| @ Saint Joseph’s | 1598 | 24th | 48% |
| vs Sacred Heart | 1266 | 67th | 86% |
| @ Mount St Marys | 1353 | 60th | 79% |
| @ Brown | 1602 | 23rd | 48% |
| vs Wagner | 1083 | 73rd | 95% |
| Games in blue are part of the critical stretch for Bryant MLAX | |||
Returning Talent Breakdown
There is certainly scope for guys to step into larger roles this year. Just 78% of their overall production from last season’s roster is back this season.
Players-to-Watch
This section may not always show the best or most well-known players on a roster. We’re really trying to shine a spotlight on the players that will determine each team’s overall success or failure.
Below is a selection of players likely to have an out-sized impact on the success of the Bulldogs this year
| Player | Notes |
|---|---|
| Jacob Alexander | TOP SKILL: his mark of 7.4 Offensive EGA tells the story of his season last year. That figure works out to the 88th percentile nationally FACEOFF ELO: He enters the season as the 18th-rated faceoff guy based on the faceoff Elo model. |
| Logan McGovern | TOP SKILL: his mark of 4.0 Points/Gm tells the story of his season last year. That figure works out to the 99th percentile nationally TEAM LEADER: He was the top distributor on the team last year; no one had more assists last year than his 24. |
| Bennett Abladian | TOP SKILL: his mark of 28.2 Offensive EGA tells the story of his season last year. That figure works out to the 98th percentile nationally TEAM LEADER: He was the leading goal-scorer on the team last year with a total tally of 28 goals scored. |
| Nathan Laliberte | TOP SKILL: the thing that most stands out is Ball Security; his performance last season puts him in the 90th percentile nationally. FACEOFF ELO: Based on the entirety of his career faceoffs and accounting for the guys he has faced, he enters the season as the 15th-rated faceoff guy in the country. |
| Marc ORourke | TOP SKILL: the thing that most stands out is Points/Gm; his performance last season puts him in the 99th percentile nationally. |
Merrimack MLAX
The most important statistical nugget from the Warriors’ 2021 season is this. In their first 6 games, the offense scored a goal on 24.6% of all possessions. In their last 4 games, their offensive efficiency was 30.3%. In those first 6 games, their record was 2-4. They finished 3-1.
For the season, Merrimack was the 37th rated offensive unit in the country and 40th after you account for the defenses they played. But that 30.3% mark they put up over their last 4 games would have put them 21st in the entire country. The question is whether the offense will be able to carry that momentum into 2022.
Continuity will help. Merrimack returns their 10 highest-play share guys from the offensive side of the ball. Another way to say that is that their entire offense is back. Sean Black may hold the key. He had 31.6% of their assists last season, but his individual ball security rating was in just the 44th percentile among qualifying players. If he can create offense last year while cutting out some of the turnovers from his game, look for the offense to sniff the top-20 and be one of the best in the NEC.
Schedule Round-up
Merrimack MLAX Overall SOS: 1409 (64th nationally)
Non-Conference: 1402 (63rd)
The toughest 3-game stretch for Merrimack MLAX comes between Feb 5th and Feb 19th. Their average win probability in these 3 games is 47.3%
| Opponent | LaxElo | Rank | WP |
|---|---|---|---|
| @ Hofstra | 1554 | 34th | 35% |
| @ Boston U | 1533 | 37th | 38% |
| @ Dartmouth | 1314 | 62nd | 69% |
| @ Holy Cross | 1428 | 51st | 53% |
| vs UMass-Lowell | 1185 | 71st | 82% |
| @ Bryant | 1585 | 27th | 31% |
| @ LIU | 1444 | 49th | 51% |
| vs Mount St Marys | 1353 | 60th | 63% |
| @ Sacred Heart | 1266 | 67th | 74% |
| vs Hobart | 1570 | 31st | 33% |
| @ Wagner | 1083 | 73rd | 89% |
| vs Saint Joseph’s | 1598 | 24th | 30% |
| Games in blue are part of the critical stretch for Merrimack MLAX | |||
Returning Talent Breakdown
There is certainly scope for guys to step into larger roles this year. Just 89% of their overall production from last season’s roster is back this season.
Players-to-Watch
Below is a selection of players likely to have an out-sized impact on the success of the Warriors this year
| Player | Notes |
|---|---|
| Tommy Rooney | TOP SKILL: his most impressive statistical category last season was Points/Gm, where he ranked in the 98th percentile among qualifying players nationally. TEAM LEADER: He was the leading goal-scorer on the team last year with a total tally of 24 goals scored. |
| Christian Thomas | TOP SKILL: his most impressive statistical category last season was Defensive EGA, where he ranked in the 98th percentile among qualifying players nationally. FACEOFF ELO: Based on the entirety of his career faceoffs and accounting for the guys he has faced, he enters the season as the 73rd-rated faceoff guy in the country. |
| Jack Rooney | TOP SKILL: the thing that most stands out is Points/Gm; his performance last season puts him in the 98th percentile nationally. FACEOFF ELO: He enters the season as the 92nd-rated faceoff guy based on the faceoff Elo model. TEAM LEADER: He was the leading goal-scorer on the team last year with a total tally of 24 goals scored. |
| Sean Black | TOP SKILL: his mark of 2.3 Points/Gm tells the story of his season last year. That figure works out to the 95th percentile nationally TEAM LEADER: He was the top distributor on the team last year; no one had more assists last year than his 18. |
| Drew Hailey | TOP SKILL: his mark of 1.8 Points/Gm tells the story of his season last year. That figure works out to the 93rd percentile nationally IMPROVEMENT FOCUS: He was the weak-link when it comes to ball security on the team last year, coughing the ball up a total of 20 times. |
Sacred Heart MLAX
Some of you may remember the debates about human cloning that erupted when scientists in the UK created Dolly the sheep from a cell taken from another sheep. Just for kicks, I’d love to hear the debate among Sacred Heart fans if instead of a Dorset sheep, the scientists were talking about cloning Max Tuttle.
In 2019, the Pioneers ended the year with a 34% opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency mark. That was good enough to finish 16th nationally and a smidge ahead of Hobart for the top spot in the NEC. Last year, their adjusted efficiency was just 22.4% and they finished ahead of only Wagner in conference. Losing Logan Liljeberg off last year’s roster isn’t going to help.
But before you accuse me of being too down on this squad, we should point out that their defense has been trending up. With a 30.8% opponent adjusted defensive efficiency, 2021 was the best year they’ve had on D since 2017. Regardless, this is a season where you are looking for progress out of this team.
Schedule Round-up
Sacred Heart MLAX Overall SOS: 1394 (67th nationally)
Non-Conference: 1341 (70th)
The toughest 3-game stretch for Sacred Heart MLAX comes between Apr 9th and Apr 23rd. Their average win probability in these 3 games is 17.5%
| Opponent | LaxElo | Rank | WP |
|---|---|---|---|
| @ Hofstra | 1554 | 34th | 16% |
| @ Lafayette | 1092 | 72nd | 73% |
| vs Quinnipiac | 1402 | 53rd | 31% |
| vs Fairfield | 1309 | 64th | 44% |
| @ Providence | 1508 | 39th | 20% |
| @ UMass-Lowell | 1185 | 71st | 62% |
| vs Hobart | 1570 | 31st | 15% |
| vs Mount St Marys | 1353 | 60th | 38% |
| @ Wagner | 1083 | 73rd | 74% |
| vs Merrimack | 1449 | 48th | 26% |
| @ Bryant | 1585 | 27th | 14% |
| @ Saint Joseph’s | 1598 | 24th | 13% |
| vs LIU | 1444 | 49th | 26% |
| Games in blue are part of the critical stretch for Sacred Heart MLAX | |||
Returning Talent Breakdown
It’s not that the cupboard is bare; it’s just that the players that filled it last year are no longer around. In fact, 54% of the team’s total production is no longer on the roster this year.
Players-to-Watch
Below is a selection of players likely to have an out-sized impact on the success of the Pioneers this year
| Player | Notes |
|---|---|
| Donovan Lacey | TOP SKILL: his most impressive statistical category last season was Defensive EGA, where he ranked in the 98th percentile among qualifying players nationally. FACEOFF ELO: Based on the entirety of his career faceoffs and accounting for the guys he has faced, he enters the season as the 92nd-rated faceoff guy in the country. |
| Sal Miccio | TOP SKILL: his most impressive statistical category last season was Points/Gm, where he ranked in the 95th percentile among qualifying players nationally. |
| Alex Weiss | TOP SKILL: his most impressive statistical category last season was Offensive EGA, where he ranked in the 82nd percentile among qualifying players nationally. IMPROVEMENT FOCUS: He was the weak-link when it comes to ball security on the team last year, coughing the ball up a total of 17 times. |
| Conor Sullivan | TOP SKILL: his mark of 3.6 Defensive EGA tells the story of his season last year. That figure works out to the 94th percentile nationally |
| Ben Palanchi | TOP SKILL: his mark of 1.8 Offensive EGA tells the story of his season last year. That figure works out to the 77th percentile nationally FACEOFF ELO: Based on the entirety of his career faceoffs and accounting for the guys he has faced, he enters the season as the 105th-rated faceoff guy in the country. |
About LacrosseReference
Basketball has KenPom; lacrosse has LacrosseReference. Zack produces live win probabilities for every game, and manages the free LR Newsletter. As part of mission to make lacrosse more fun to coach, play and follow, he also runs a season-long Win Totals contest and a Bracket Challenge for the NCAA tournament each spring.