Stats & Analysis

Conf Tournament Week: WLAX

0 Comment May 11, 2021

Before we get into the top EGA games, I am running a Bracket Challenge for both the men’s and women’s NCAA tournaments. If you haven’t already signed up, check it out.
Each week, we will look back at the games that were to see which players had the largest individual performances. I say largest because the contributions that we can measure (from play by play) tend to be things that are easy to count. This includes, goals, shots, assists, turnovers, penalties, etc. We can’t measure a defender who shuts down an opposing player so completely that she doesn’t even touch the ball. Still, it is interesting to be able to identify the players that really filled it up each weekend and give them a shout out here.
For a bit of background, in order to rank single game performances, we needed a way to condense box score stats to a single number for each player. In order to do this, we relied on our expected goal values methodology, which assigns a goal value to each type of play depending on how often it leads to a goal in the next 60 seconds. By adding up all the expected goals added for each player, we can get to that single number and these rankings.
We have also tagged each performance with the opponent’s ELO rating. The higher the number, the stronger the opponent. This should help to give some context for each performance. Did the player feast on the dregs of D1 or did they put up these numbers against a quality opponent?
A quick note: whenever you see the PRO logo () a click will take you directly to the player’s PRO page. In some cases, you’ll see the “unlocked” PRO logo () which tells you that the player’s team is unlocked and you’ll be able to see all the PRO content.
Top Single Game Scores of the week
#1 – Ally Kennedy (Stony Brook) – 10.49 goals added May 6 vs UMBC Opp ELO: 1388 Lots of harrumphing over the weekend when Stony Brook was given the 8 seed in the tournament. Honestly, I wonder how much the teams and coaches care about that stuff. I mean, you are in the tournament and you were going to have to go through the one-seed at some point. Why not get it over with early? Regardless, I’m sure UNC is looking forward to another matchup with Ally Kennedy. She was everywhere against UMBC, with an impressive 4 GBs to go with her offensive output. The scary thing is that Stony Brook managed to limit her usage a bit this year. Her weighted play share was 15.8%, which is the lowest mark since 2018. That could mean fresher legs for the tournament. Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 99th Total EGA 99th Offensive EGA 99th Excess Goals 9th eGoals/Shot 74th Shooting Percentage 75th Shot-on-Goal Rate 61st Play Shares 97th PRO Definitions Box Score Stats Goals Assists Shots 7 1 9 GBs Draw Controls SOG 4 6 8 Turnovers Penalties Caused TO 0 0 2 Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 99th Total EGA 99th Offensive EGA 99th Excess Goals 9th eGoals/Shot 74th Shooting Percentage 75th Shot-on-Goal Rate 61st Play Shares 97th PRO Definitions
#2 – Hailey Rhatigan (Mercer) – 8.00 goals added May 6 vs Coastal Carolina Opp ELO: 1717 Congrats to Mercer on a run through the field and into an NCAA berth. And Hailey Rhatigan’s performance in those final two games is arguably the biggest factor in how they made it happen. In the CCA and Furman games, she scored 11 goals on 17 shots. Against Coastal, she also poured in 4 assists. Compare her season in 2021 to hear last season in 2019. The thing that stands out the most is her improved shooting. She’s at 48.9% this year, which is over 10 percentage points better than ’19. Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 98th Total EGA 93rd Offensive EGA 94th Excess Goals 10th eGoals/Shot 64th Shooting Percentage 55th Shot-on-Goal Rate 42nd Play Shares 99th PRO Definitions Box Score Stats Goals Assists Shots 6 4 11 GBs Draw Controls SOG 1 1 7 Turnovers Penalties Caused TO 4 3 1 Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 98th Total EGA 93rd Offensive EGA 94th Excess Goals 10th eGoals/Shot 64th Shooting Percentage 55th Shot-on-Goal Rate 42nd Play Shares 99th PRO Definitions
#3 – Ally Kennedy (Stony Brook) – 7.84 goals added May 8 vs Albany Opp ELO: 1725 12 goals on 19 shots over 2 games. Yeah, that’ll get you two spots on the weekly EGA list. The fact that she only committed a single turnover in those 2 games is icing on the cake for a team that outscored their AEC opponents 41-22 in the tournament. Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 99th Total EGA 99th Offensive EGA 99th Excess Goals 9th eGoals/Shot 74th Shooting Percentage 75th Shot-on-Goal Rate 61st Play Shares 97th PRO Definitions Box Score Stats Goals Assists Shots 5 0 10 GBs Draw Controls SOG 6 4 6 Turnovers Penalties Caused TO 1 0 1 Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 99th Total EGA 99th Offensive EGA 99th Excess Goals 9th eGoals/Shot 74th Shooting Percentage 75th Shot-on-Goal Rate 61st Play Shares 97th PRO Definitions
#4 – Kasey Dorney (Wagner) – 7.58 goals added May 5 vs LIU Opp ELO: 1269 Dorney had her highest single-game EGA performance against LIU on May 5. And it was an extremely efficient performance. 5 goals on 7 shots, with an assist and just the single turnover. Dorney ends her 2021 campaign with a career high 4.3 EGA per game, thanks to nearly halving her turnover rate and maintaining a mid-40 percent shooting percentage despite taking more than 2 shots more per game. Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 96th Total EGA 90th Offensive EGA 82nd Excess Goals 12th eGoals/Shot 46th Shooting Percentage 50th Shot-on-Goal Rate 46th Play Shares 91st PRO Definitions Box Score Stats Goals Assists Shots 5 1 7 GBs Draw Controls SOG 3 7 7 Turnovers Penalties Caused TO 1 0 1 Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 96th Total EGA 90th Offensive EGA 82nd Excess Goals 12th eGoals/Shot 46th Shooting Percentage 50th Shot-on-Goal Rate 46th Play Shares 91st PRO Definitions
#5 – Blair Pearre (Towson) – 7.46 goals added May 5 vs Elon Opp ELO: 1682 Pearre’s 2021 is remarkably similar to her 2020 season when you look at shooting. Her shooting percentage is down from 53.8% to 53.3% and her SOG rate is down from 84.6% to 84.4%. Almost exactly the same shooting profile. Where it differs is that she took 6 shots per game this year, up from 4.3 last year. She also reduced her individual turnover rate from 0.50 to 0.36. It’s always good to see when a player can take on a larger role without sacrificing efficiency. She clearly did that. Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 99th Total EGA 89th Offensive EGA 87th Excess Goals 84th eGoals/Shot 85th Shooting Percentage 86th Shot-on-Goal Rate 73rd Play Shares 95th PRO Definitions Box Score Stats Goals Assists Shots 4 3 7 GBs Draw Controls SOG 0 8 6 Turnovers Penalties Caused TO 1 0 0 Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 99th Total EGA 89th Offensive EGA 87th Excess Goals 84th eGoals/Shot 85th Shooting Percentage 86th Shot-on-Goal Rate 73rd Play Shares 95th PRO Definitions
#6 – Molly Brock (Jacksonville) – 7.11 goals added May 6 vs Stetson Opp ELO: 1085 In her first 5 games, Molly Brock averaged just 2.4 shots per game. But she scored 6 goals on those 12 shots. It appears to have earned her more chances. In the final 7 games of the season, she averaged 5.5 shots per game and poured in another 23 goals. That means that over her final 7 games, she actually shot even better: 59%. it looks even better if we take account of the difficulty of the shots she took. Her excess-goals / shot rating this year is effectively neutral, where last year she was a net negative shooter. Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 95th Total EGA 92nd Offensive EGA 87th Excess Goals 85th eGoals/Shot 85th Shooting Percentage 88th Shot-on-Goal Rate 58th Play Shares 87th PRO Definitions Box Score Stats Goals Assists Shots 6 1 7 GBs Draw Controls SOG 2 4 6 Turnovers Penalties Caused TO 2 2 1 Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 95th Total EGA 92nd Offensive EGA 87th Excess Goals 85th eGoals/Shot 85th Shooting Percentage 88th Shot-on-Goal Rate 58th Play Shares 87th PRO Definitions
#7 – Sadie Grozier (Colorado) – 7.04 goals added May 8 vs Stanford Opp ELO: 2046 Sadie Grozier would have been on this list more this year if not for the depth of the Buffaloes’ offensive unit. Her weighted play share is just 13.8%, which is below what I would consider a high-usage player. Still, it was a successful season for her. Her turnover rate has been on a steady downward trend over her career: 2018: 1.02 2019: 0.72 2020: 0.59 2021: 0.49 Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 88th Total EGA 94th Offensive EGA 95th Excess Goals 2nd eGoals/Shot 47th Shooting Percentage 45th Shot-on-Goal Rate 75th Play Shares 89th PRO Definitions Box Score Stats Goals Assists Shots 6 1 9 GBs Draw Controls SOG 2 0 8 Turnovers Penalties Caused TO 2 0 0 Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 88th Total EGA 94th Offensive EGA 95th Excess Goals 2nd eGoals/Shot 47th Shooting Percentage 45th Shot-on-Goal Rate 75th Play Shares 89th PRO Definitions
#8 – Brianna Harris (Florida) – 6.84 goals added May 8 vs Temple Opp ELO: 1585 Generally, when the Gators appeared on this list, it was because of Shannon Kavanagh. Not this time. Brianna Harris gets her first top EGA game of the season with a 6.84 explosion against Temple in the AAC finals. This was her 3rd game this season with at least 5 goals and no more than 1 missed shot. Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 90th Total EGA 96th Offensive EGA 97th Excess Goals 51st eGoals/Shot 83rd Shooting Percentage 87th Shot-on-Goal Rate 75th Play Shares 90th PRO Definitions Box Score Stats Goals Assists Shots 6 4 7 GBs Draw Controls SOG 0 2 7 Turnovers Penalties Caused TO 2 4 0 Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 90th Total EGA 96th Offensive EGA 97th Excess Goals 51st eGoals/Shot 83rd Shooting Percentage 87th Shot-on-Goal Rate 75th Play Shares 90th PRO Definitions
#9 – Kyra LaMotte (Furman) – 6.74 goals added May 6 vs Wofford Opp ELO: 669 LaMotte’s season ended with a one-goal loss to Mercer with an NCAA bid on the line. But to even get to that game, she powered the Paladins through Wofford with a 7-point outburst en route to a 21 goal game for Furman. Easily the best season of her career. She doubled her goals/g average while her play share only jumped 50%. So her production grew more than her usage rate, which means she was more efficient with her touches this year. Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 88th Total EGA 92nd Offensive EGA 90th Excess Goals 32nd eGoals/Shot 79th Shooting Percentage 82nd Shot-on-Goal Rate 67th Play Shares 72nd PRO Definitions Box Score Stats Goals Assists Shots 6 1 9 GBs Draw Controls SOG 2 1 7 Turnovers Penalties Caused TO 0 0 2 Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 88th Total EGA 92nd Offensive EGA 90th Excess Goals 32nd eGoals/Shot 79th Shooting Percentage 82nd Shot-on-Goal Rate 67th Play Shares 72nd PRO Definitions
#10 – Karson Harris (Drexel) – 6.64 goals added May 7 vs Towson Opp ELO: 1763 Drexel may have lost the CAA title game in devastating fashion, but Harris can look back fondly on the semifinals against Towson. The Dragons knocked out the Tigers in a 15-14 nailbiter that was nothing like their previous 10 and 12 goal victories over Towson. If not for Harris’ 5-point day, they probably don’t even get a crack at JMU in the finals. The concern for Drexel is whether or not their future opponents figure out how the Dukes held Harris scoreless and forced her into her first negative EGA game of the year. Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 99th Total EGA 99th Offensive EGA 98th Excess Goals 37th eGoals/Shot 82nd Shooting Percentage 83rd Shot-on-Goal Rate 68th Play Shares 99th PRO Definitions Box Score Stats Goals Assists Shots 3 2 5 GBs Draw Controls SOG 3 8 4 Turnovers Penalties Caused TO 1 1 2 Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 99th Total EGA 99th Offensive EGA 98th Excess Goals 37th eGoals/Shot 82nd Shooting Percentage 83rd Shot-on-Goal Rate 68th Play Shares 99th PRO Definitions

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