Conf Tournament Week – MLAX
Before we get into the top EGA games, I am running a Bracket Challenge for both the men’s and women’s NCAA tournaments. If you haven’t already signed up, check it out. | |
Each week, we will look back at the games that were to see which players had the largest individual performances. I say largest because the contributions that we can measure (from play by play) tend to be things that are easy to count. This includes, goals, shots, assists, turnovers, penalties, etc. We can’t measure a defender who shuts down an opposing player so completely that he doesn’t even touch the ball. Still, it is interesting to be able to identify the players that really filled it up each weekend and give them a shout out here. | |
For a bit of background, in order to rank single game performances, we needed a way to condense box score stats to a single number for each player. In order to do this, we relied on our expected goal values methodology, which assigns a goal value to each type of play depending on how often it leads to a goal in the next 60 seconds. By adding up all the expected goals added for each player, we can get to that single number and these rankings. | |
We have also tagged each performance with the opponent’s ELO rating. The higher the number, the stronger the opponent. This should help to give some context for each performance. Did the player feast on the dregs of D1 or did they put up these numbers against a quality opponent? | |
A quick note: whenever you see the PRO logo (![]() ![]() |
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Top Single Game Scores of the week |
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#1 – Tommy Burke (Vermont) – 8.12 goals added
May 8 vs Albany Opp ELO: 1606
If Vermont has a chance at knocking off Maryland in the first round of the tournament, it’s because of Tommy Burke. He’s winning 71.3% of his faceoffs this year, which is 3rd nationally. But given the strength of the opponents he has faced, he’s actually the 2nd rated FOGO overall.
The Terps, on the other hand, have the 32nd rated opp-adjusted faceoff unit in MLAX. The Catamounts will likely struggle to stay with Maryland on a per-possession basis, but if Burke can give them a big possession edge, anything can happen. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
99th
Total EGA
90th
Faceoff EGA
92nd
Excess Goals
27th
Shooting Percentage
49th
Faceoff Win%
92nd
Faceoff Elo
99th
Play Shares
93rd
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
1
0
2 (2)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
16
23
79%
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
0
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
99th
Total EGA
90th
Faceoff EGA
92nd
Excess Goals
27th
Shooting Percentage
49th
Faceoff Win%
92nd
Faceoff Elo
99th
Play Shares
93rd
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#2 – Jared Bernhardt (Maryland) – 7.39 goals added
May 6 vs Michigan Opp ELO: 1458
Speaking of the Terps, the hard-shells were given the #3 seed, with a likely 2nd round collision with Notre Dame. Certainly not the cleanest draw for a team that many regarded as the #1 team in the country this season. But, such is life in a B1G conference-only season. I’m sure Coach Tillman isn’t sweating it too much.
In helping the Terps to the B1G title, Jared Bernhardt cemented his status as a Tewaaraton finalist. In the game against Michigan, his skill set was on full display. Interestingly though, in the finals against JHU, he was limited to just 5 shots, which was his lowest total of the year and the offense overall was held to their lowest efficiency since their 2nd game of the year. Will be curious to see if Vermont or ND have similar success in the first few rounds. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
97th
Total EGA
99th
Offensive EGA
99th
Excess Goals
19th
eGoals/Shot
85th
Shooting Percentage
87th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
78th
Play Shares
96th
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
8
2
12 (11)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
2
0
N/A
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
0
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
97th
Total EGA
99th
Offensive EGA
99th
Excess Goals
19th
eGoals/Shot
85th
Shooting Percentage
87th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
78th
Play Shares
96th
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#3 – Jakob Phaup (Syracuse) – 7.24 goals added
May 7 vs Robert Morris Opp ELO: 1543
Phaup was great in the final game for the Orange heading into Selection Sunday. His 24 faceoff wins tied a season high, and maybe most important, it was the first that they won over 63% of their faceoffs against a team not named Virginia.
The match-up with Georgetown looms in the 1st round, and it seems like the chances of a Cuse upset hinge on whether Phaup can be convinced that he’s actually going against Petey LaSalla instead of James Reilly. The Cuse offense is good enough to score against Georgetown, but the Cuse defense is vulnerable. Best way to mitigate that risk is win faceoffs. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
92nd
Total EGA
93rd
Faceoff EGA
95th
Excess Goals
30th
Shooting Percentage
32nd
Faceoff Win%
89th
Faceoff Elo
97th
Play Shares
84th
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
0
0
0 (0)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
16
24
75%
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
0
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
92nd
Total EGA
93rd
Faceoff EGA
95th
Excess Goals
30th
Shooting Percentage
32nd
Faceoff Win%
89th
Faceoff Elo
97th
Play Shares
84th
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#4 – Jacob Alexander (Bryant) – 6.95 goals added
May 8 vs Saint Joseph’s Opp ELO: 1659
Another FOGO on another tournament team. The Bulldogs continued their post-season magic in taking the NEC title. They were good enough against St. Joe’s to win even without the possession advantage, but it certainly wouldn’t have been a 6-goal quasi-blowout.
Alexander’s game against Zach Cole actually bumped the Bulldog above the Hawks’ star FOGO in the faceoff Elo ratings. Now they get a chance at ACC squad in the Cavaliers. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
97th
Total EGA
80th
Faceoff EGA
85th
Excess Goals
36th
Shooting Percentage
81st
Faceoff Win%
87th
Faceoff Elo
97th
Play Shares
77th
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
1
2
1 (1)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
12
17
56%
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
2
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
97th
Total EGA
80th
Faceoff EGA
85th
Excess Goals
36th
Shooting Percentage
81st
Faceoff Win%
87th
Faceoff Elo
97th
Play Shares
77th
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#5 – Owen Hiltz (Syracuse) – 6.94 goals added
May 7 vs Robert Morris Opp ELO: 1543
When people are optimistic about Syracuse’s chances in the tournament, you’ll often hear Hiltz mentioned. When they are pessimistic, it’s the defense.
Against RoMo, Hiltz showed why people are excited. 15 shots was his largest workload of the season, but he maintained the efficiency nicely, ending up with a 47% shooting day. If you ignore Brown, Georgetown is the best opponent-adjusted defense in the country, so he and his teammates have their work cut out for them. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
96th
Total EGA
76th
Offensive EGA
82nd
Excess Goals
23rd
eGoals/Shot
66th
Shooting Percentage
77th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
77th
Play Shares
94th
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
7
2
15 (12)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
1
0
N/A
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
2
1
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
96th
Total EGA
76th
Offensive EGA
82nd
Excess Goals
23rd
eGoals/Shot
66th
Shooting Percentage
77th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
77th
Play Shares
94th
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#6 – Zach Cole (Saint Joseph’s) – 6.36 goals added
May 5 vs LIU Opp ELO: 1440
Very weird year for Zach Cole. On the face off it, it was a great season. He was on this list quite a bit. He won 68% of his draws. St Joe’s had the No. 9 opp-adjusted faceoff unit in the country.
But when you compare 2021 to 2020, when he won 75.6% of his faceoffs, it’s hard not to wonder what might have been. Was it the new rules? Weirdness because of COVID? With the lost to Bryant fresh in their minds, there may not be a team more looking forward to fall practice than St. Joe’s. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
99th
Total EGA
97th
Faceoff EGA
98th
Excess Goals
6th
Shooting Percentage
42nd
Faceoff Win%
93rd
Faceoff Elo
96th
Play Shares
99th
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
0
0
1 (1)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
14
23
71%
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
0
1
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
99th
Total EGA
97th
Faceoff EGA
98th
Excess Goals
6th
Shooting Percentage
42nd
Faceoff Win%
93rd
Faceoff Elo
96th
Play Shares
99th
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#7 – Mikey Sisselberger (Lehigh) – 6.22 goals added
May 7 vs Colgate Opp ELO: 1382
Lehigh didn’t get to play for the Patriot League title, and the world missed out on a great FOGO matchup between Sisselberger and Loyola’s Bailey Savio. Against Colgate though, Sisselberger did his thing, although perhaps not as dominantly as he’s been doing it.
The 69% win rate, coveted by most FOGOs, was the first time in 7 games that they were sub 70%. Lehigh has been the best possession team in the nation this year, having had a full +10.2 possession advantage per game. Rutgers, on the other hand, had 22 fewer possessions than their opponents overall. Possession for possession, Rutgers was the more efficient team this season. It’s rare that faceoffs turn an efficiency gap into a win, but if you had to ID a 1st round game where that could happen, it would be this one. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
99th
Total EGA
92nd
Faceoff EGA
93rd
Excess Goals
13th
Shooting Percentage
43rd
Faceoff Win%
93rd
Faceoff Elo
99th
Play Shares
97th
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
0
0
3 (0)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
14
18
72%
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
1
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
99th
Total EGA
92nd
Faceoff EGA
93rd
Excess Goals
13th
Shooting Percentage
43rd
Faceoff Win%
93rd
Faceoff Elo
99th
Play Shares
97th
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#8 – James Reilly (Georgetown) – 5.82 goals added
May 6 vs Villanova Opp ELO: 1669
Georgetown got the 5th seed thanks to an impressive run to another Big East tournament title. Overcoming the Loyola loss (which may have had more impact on the structure of the bracket than just about any game this season), showed a lot of bounce-back for this team.
For his part, James Reilly’s Big East tournament was not statistically impressive. He won 19 of 46 faceoffs against the 6th and 28th rated faceoff units in the country. But if you isolate the Villanova game, it was his 2nd highest EGA performance of the season, helped along by a season-high 3 shots and a goal. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
97th
Total EGA
96th
Faceoff EGA
96th
Excess Goals
35th
Shooting Percentage
83rd
Faceoff Win%
85th
Faceoff Elo
94th
Play Shares
95th
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
1
0
3 (2)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
11
17
58%
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
0
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
97th
Total EGA
96th
Faceoff EGA
96th
Excess Goals
35th
Shooting Percentage
83rd
Faceoff Win%
85th
Faceoff Elo
94th
Play Shares
95th
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#9 – Dylan McIntosh (Hofstra) – 5.81 goals added
May 6 vs Delaware Opp ELO: 1688
Before Hofstra got roasted by the Dragons of Drexel, they, led by McIntosh, won a tense, low-scoring affair against Delaware in the CAA semis. The 8 shots he took against the Blue Hens set a season-high and the 5 goals also bested his previous high against Fairfield.
The Drexel game was no-doubt not how they wanted to end the year, but perhaps the 2 prior games will be something for McIntosh to build off of. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
79th
Total EGA
82nd
Offensive EGA
86th
Excess Goals
17th
eGoals/Shot
72nd
Shooting Percentage
76th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
71st
Play Shares
68th
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
5
0
8 (6)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
2
0
N/A
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
0
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
79th
Total EGA
82nd
Offensive EGA
86th
Excess Goals
17th
eGoals/Shot
72nd
Shooting Percentage
76th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
71st
Play Shares
68th
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#10 – Bailey Savio (Loyola) – 5.70 goals added
May 4 vs Navy Opp ELO: 1570
Well, after all that Loyola will be dancing. It would have been exciting to see them play Lehigh, but the sting of the cancellation is certainly lessened by the fact that the committee put the Hounds in the field anyway. What could have been a sour COVID note to end what has been a strangely normal season probably gets mostly forgotten since we’ll get to see Loyola play at least one more game (COVID protocols pending of course).
And they will need everything they can get from Bailey Savio if they are going to counter the 2-headed monster in Denver’s Stathakis and Ierlan pair. The game he had against Navy might just be the blueprint. The 21 faceoff wins were a season high. Of course, Navy is the 41st rated faceoff unit in the country. Denver is … higher than that. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
96th
Total EGA
98th
Faceoff EGA
99th
Excess Goals
20th
Shooting Percentage
55th
Faceoff Win%
83rd
Faceoff Elo
93rd
Play Shares
96th
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
0
0
1 (0)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
11
21
75%
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
1
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
96th
Total EGA
98th
Faceoff EGA
99th
Excess Goals
20th
Shooting Percentage
55th
Faceoff Win%
83rd
Faceoff Elo
93rd
Play Shares
96th
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