Top Individual Performances (Week 13 WLAX)
Each week, we will look back at the games that were to see which players had the largest individual performances. I say largest because the contributions that we can measure (from play by play) tend to be things that are easy to count. This includes, goals, shots, assists, turnovers, penalties, etc. We can’t measure a defender who shuts down an opposing player so completely that she doesn’t even touch the ball. Still, it is interesting to be able to identify the players that really filled it up each weekend and give them a shout out here. | |
For a bit of background, in order to rank single game performances, we needed a way to condense box score stats to a single number for each player. In order to do this, we relied on our expected goal values methodology, which assigns a goal value to each type of play depending on how often it leads to a goal in the next 60 seconds. By adding up all the expected goals added for each player, we can get to that single number and these rankings. | |
We have also tagged each performance with the opponent’s ELO rating. The higher the number, the stronger the opponent. This should help to give some context for each performance. Did the player feast on the dregs of D1 or did they put up these numbers against a quality opponent? | |
A quick note: whenever you see the PRO logo (![]() ![]() |
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Top Single Game Scores of the week |
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#1 – Cassidy Spilis (Rutgers) – 9.59 goals added
Apr 30 vs Northwestern Opp ELO: 2280
Northwestern brought home the trophy, but Spilis ended up with the top single-game performance (statistically) in the B1G tournament.
This was the first time in the 3 games against NU that she was able to break out a bit. She score 2 goals and added 1 assist in the weekend series in March. So while the outcome wasn’t what they wanted, I’m sure it felt good for her to finally have a good game against the purple-people-eaters. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
97th
Total EGA
86th
Offensive EGA
85th
Excess Goals
92nd
eGoals/Shot
86th
Shooting Percentage
83rd
Shot-on-Goal Rate
68th
Play Shares
98th
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots
9
0
11
GBs
Draw Controls
SOG
0
9
11
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
0
3
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
97th
Total EGA
86th
Offensive EGA
85th
Excess Goals
92nd
eGoals/Shot
86th
Shooting Percentage
83rd
Shot-on-Goal Rate
68th
Play Shares
98th
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#2 – Natalie Karlen (Central Michigan) – 9.02 goals added
Apr 28 vs Kent State Opp ELO: 930
Karlen is currently shooting 55.7% on the season. That is up from 41.9% last season. And she’s doing it on 8.2 shots/gm vs just 6.2 last year.
And the increase in shooting effectiveness seems to be down to genuine improvement in her shooting skill because after applying the shot quality filter, her excess goals / shot rating is net positive this year (+.01) after being net negative in every other year of her career up until now. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
96th
Total EGA
99th
Offensive EGA
99th
Excess Goals
8th
eGoals/Shot
72nd
Shooting Percentage
68th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
50th
Play Shares
97th
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots
8
3
11
GBs
Draw Controls
SOG
2
0
11
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
0
0
1
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
96th
Total EGA
99th
Offensive EGA
99th
Excess Goals
8th
eGoals/Shot
72nd
Shooting Percentage
68th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
50th
Play Shares
97th
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#3 – Nicole McNeely (Siena) – 8.52 goals added
Apr 28 vs Marist Opp ELO: 1353
Double-Dip Alert!!! McNeely had quite the week, with the 3rd and 4th highest EGA performances of the week in back-to-back games. This game was about volume; she took 11 shots (season-high) and canned 7 of them while adding 3 assists.
And when you consider the fact that Marist is the best defense that Siena has faced all season, this performance gets a little extra shine. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
88th
Total EGA
89th
Offensive EGA
90th
Excess Goals
26th
eGoals/Shot
73rd
Shooting Percentage
71st
Shot-on-Goal Rate
55th
Play Shares
93rd
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots
7
3
11
GBs
Draw Controls
SOG
1
4
10
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
2
1
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
88th
Total EGA
89th
Offensive EGA
90th
Excess Goals
26th
eGoals/Shot
73rd
Shooting Percentage
71st
Shot-on-Goal Rate
55th
Play Shares
93rd
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#4 – Nicole McNeely (Siena) – 7.99 goals added
May 1 vs Canisius Opp ELO: 1319
While her game against Marist was about volume, the win over Canisius showed the efficient side of McNeely’s game. In this one, she put up 5 goals on 6 shots and added 3 ground balls to the mix.
For the year, the thing that really stands out about McNeely’s improvement as a player is turnovers. Even after adjusted for a slightly lower play share this year, her turnover rate is a third less than it was in 2020. At .43, it’s the lowest mark she’s put up in her career. It’s an addition-by-subtraction sort of situation. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
88th
Total EGA
89th
Offensive EGA
90th
Excess Goals
26th
eGoals/Shot
73rd
Shooting Percentage
71st
Shot-on-Goal Rate
55th
Play Shares
93rd
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots
5
1
6
GBs
Draw Controls
SOG
3
10
6
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
1
0
1
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
88th
Total EGA
89th
Offensive EGA
90th
Excess Goals
26th
eGoals/Shot
73rd
Shooting Percentage
71st
Shot-on-Goal Rate
55th
Play Shares
93rd
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#5 – Charlotte North (Boston College) – 7.92 goals added
Apr 30 vs Syracuse Opp ELO: 2379
Most players will never have a 7.92 EGA game in their entire career. North’s output in the Syracuse game was merely her 5th best EGA performance of the year.
Chew on that. There will be a lot of eyes watching what she can do in the NCAAs. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
99th
Total EGA
99th
Offensive EGA
99th
Excess Goals
99th
eGoals/Shot
89th
Shooting Percentage
89th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
59th
Play Shares
98th
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots
6
1
9
GBs
Draw Controls
SOG
0
11
8
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
1
5
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
99th
Total EGA
99th
Offensive EGA
99th
Excess Goals
99th
eGoals/Shot
89th
Shooting Percentage
89th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
59th
Play Shares
98th
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#6 – Kelly Horning (Fairfield) – 7.65 goals added
May 1 vs Marist Opp ELO: 1334
Long-time listener, first-time caller. This is the first top-10 EGA performance of the season for Horning, who has generally been a very consistent player who tends to come in just under the normal EGA threshold. Not in this one.
Her game against Marist fairly normal for her in that she picked up 5 GBs for the 4th time this year. The difference, and what landed her on this list, was the opportunity she got on offense. This was the first game with double-digit shots (10) and the first game with over 4 goals (6). Add that all up and you get a slot on the EGA list. (In other news, Marist’s defense, after having a very strong start to the year, is showing up quite a bit here as the opposing defense. Makes you wonder if there are some tired legs brewing there.) Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
93rd
Total EGA
95th
Offensive EGA
91st
Excess Goals
34th
eGoals/Shot
80th
Shooting Percentage
75th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
45th
Play Shares
96th
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots
6
0
10
GBs
Draw Controls
SOG
5
5
8
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
3
3
3
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
93rd
Total EGA
95th
Offensive EGA
91st
Excess Goals
34th
eGoals/Shot
80th
Shooting Percentage
75th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
45th
Play Shares
96th
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#7 – Mackenzie Gandy (Robert Morris) – 7.54 goals added
May 1 vs Youngstown State Opp ELO: 1352
RMU ended this game with a +17 possession advantage over Youngstown. It was their 2nd best possession game of the year. And Gandy certainly did her part to contribute to that mark, scooping up 6 ground balls.
As with so many other performances that make it to this list, it was the combination of possession-gaining GBs and fairly typical scoring that earned her a spot here. This game was the 3rd time she posted 6 goals. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
94th
Total EGA
97th
Offensive EGA
98th
Excess Goals
0th
eGoals/Shot
41st
Shooting Percentage
41st
Shot-on-Goal Rate
38th
Play Shares
90th
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots
6
2
10
GBs
Draw Controls
SOG
6
0
8
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
2
0
2
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
94th
Total EGA
97th
Offensive EGA
98th
Excess Goals
0th
eGoals/Shot
41st
Shooting Percentage
41st
Shot-on-Goal Rate
38th
Play Shares
90th
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#8 – Izzy Scane (Northwestern) – 7.40 goals added
May 2 vs Maryland Opp ELO: 1992
The Scane-Train rolled through the B1G tournament with a final whistle-stop against the Terps. Scane was kept relatively quite against Rutgers (don’t worry, her teammates more than took advantage of the opportunity), so it was nice to see her have a day against Maryland.
If anything, she is probably kicking herself over the 6 turnovers, which was a season high. In fact, the entire team was a bit loose with the ball in this one. They turned it over on 36.2% of their possessions, which was the 2nd highest raw turnover rate of the year. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
99th
Total EGA
98th
Offensive EGA
98th
Excess Goals
56th
eGoals/Shot
84th
Shooting Percentage
87th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
46th
Play Shares
97th
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots
9
0
15
GBs
Draw Controls
SOG
1
0
12
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
6
4
1
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
99th
Total EGA
98th
Offensive EGA
98th
Excess Goals
56th
eGoals/Shot
84th
Shooting Percentage
87th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
46th
Play Shares
97th
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#9 – Taryn Ohlmiller (Stony Brook) – 7.39 goals added
May 1 vs UMBC Opp ELO: 1443
When people talk about surgical precision, I think they mean games like Ohlmiller had against UMBC. 10 goals on 8 shots. Add in an assist and a GB. Zero turnovers.
If Stony Brook is going to make noise in May, they’ll need more games like this from her. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
97th
Total EGA
98th
Offensive EGA
98th
Excess Goals
23rd
eGoals/Shot
77th
Shooting Percentage
82nd
Shot-on-Goal Rate
60th
Play Shares
88th
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots
8
1
10
GBs
Draw Controls
SOG
1
0
10
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
0
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
97th
Total EGA
98th
Offensive EGA
98th
Excess Goals
23rd
eGoals/Shot
77th
Shooting Percentage
82nd
Shot-on-Goal Rate
60th
Play Shares
88th
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#10 – Abby Jones (Kent State) – 7.11 goals added
May 1 vs Detroit Mercy Opp ELO: 1111
Jones has had a somewhat weird year. Her weighted play share is 12.8%, down from 19.5% last year. So the offensive opportunities are being spread around more on a deeper roster for the Kent State. That’s a good thing.
And her shooting percentage is up nearly 10 percentage points (44.4% this year vs 34.7% last year). Also good. But her turnover rate is up substantially (.86 this year vs .55 last year). The deeper roster suggests that some of the pressure has been taken off of her this season. That explains the higher shooting percentage, but not the higher turnover rate. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
96th
Total EGA
93rd
Offensive EGA
92nd
Excess Goals
8th
eGoals/Shot
57th
Shooting Percentage
45th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
41st
Play Shares
99th
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots
5
2
9
GBs
Draw Controls
SOG
2
2
7
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
3
0
1
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
96th
Total EGA
93rd
Offensive EGA
92nd
Excess Goals
8th
eGoals/Shot
57th
Shooting Percentage
45th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
41st
Play Shares
99th
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