Stats & Analysis

Top Individual Performances (Week 13 MLAX)

0 Comment May 3, 2021

Each week, we will look back at the games that were to see which players had the largest individual performances. I say largest because the contributions that we can measure (from play by play) tend to be things that are easy to count. This includes, goals, shots, assists, turnovers, penalties, etc. We can’t measure a defender who shuts down an opposing player so completely that he doesn’t even touch the ball. Still, it is interesting to be able to identify the players that really filled it up each weekend and give them a shout out here.
For a bit of background, in order to rank single game performances, we needed a way to condense box score stats to a single number for each player. In order to do this, we relied on our expected goal values methodology, which assigns a goal value to each type of play depending on how often it leads to a goal in the next 60 seconds. By adding up all the expected goals added for each player, we can get to that single number and these rankings.
We have also tagged each performance with the opponent’s ELO rating. The higher the number, the stronger the opponent. This should help to give some context for each performance. Did the player feast on the dregs of D1 or did they put up these numbers against a quality opponent?
A quick note: whenever you see the PRO logo () a click will take you directly to the player’s PRO page. In some cases, you’ll see the “unlocked” PRO logo () which tells you that the player’s team is unlocked and you’ll be able to see all the PRO content.
Top Single Game Scores of the week
#1 – Pat Kavanagh (Notre Dame) – 9.22 goals added May 1 vs Syracuse Opp ELO: 1675 I don’t think anyone would be surprised at the #1 EGA game then week. Kavanagh led the charge for a dominant Irish win over Syracuse. Kavanagh has been making a push for Tewaaraton-finalist status. I always think about offensive players along 2 dimensions: ability to create offense for others and ability to finish their own chances. Here is how Kavanagh’s 2021 campaign compares. Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 99th Total EGA 87th Offensive EGA 89th Excess Goals 17th eGoals/Shot 62nd Shooting Percentage 67th Shot-on-Goal Rate 50th Play Shares 98th PRO Definitions Box Score Stats Goals Assists Shots (OG) 5 5 11 (6) GBs FO Won FO Pct 5 0 N/A Turnovers Penalties Caused TO 1 0 2 Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 99th Total EGA 87th Offensive EGA 89th Excess Goals 17th eGoals/Shot 62nd Shooting Percentage 67th Shot-on-Goal Rate 50th Play Shares 98th PRO Definitions
#2 – Jacob Alexander (Bryant) – 9.06 goals added Apr 27 vs LIU Opp ELO: 1466 When you have 72 offensive possessions and there are 37 goals scored, conditions are ripe for big FOGO EGA games. Jacob Alexander took advantage with a 30-win day against Bryant. Oh, and the 30 faceoff wins? Career high. Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 95th Total EGA 73rd Faceoff EGA 81st Excess Goals 43rd Shooting Percentage 84th Faceoff Win% 90th Faceoff Elo 82nd Play Shares 69th PRO Definitions Box Score Stats Goals Assists Shots (OG) 1 0 4 (3) GBs FO Won FO Pct 16 30 75% Turnovers Penalties Caused TO 3 0 0 Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 95th Total EGA 73rd Faceoff EGA 81st Excess Goals 43rd Shooting Percentage 84th Faceoff Win% 90th Faceoff Elo 82nd Play Shares 69th PRO Definitions
#3 – Jack Kiernan (Siena) – 6.98 goals added Apr 30 vs Monmouth Opp ELO: 1354 Tough year for Siena. They are winless, but 4 of those losses were by a single goal. While they didn’t get the victory in this game, we should still recognize Kiernan’s strong game. He shot 5 of 8, and that 63% mark was a season-high. In his other game with 5 goals, it took him 16 shots to get there. Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 95th Total EGA 93rd Offensive EGA 94th Excess Goals 11th eGoals/Shot 72nd Shooting Percentage 68th Shot-on-Goal Rate 59th Play Shares 94th PRO Definitions Box Score Stats Goals Assists Shots (OG) 5 2 8 (8) GBs FO Won FO Pct 6 0 N/A Turnovers Penalties Caused TO 1 0 1 Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 95th Total EGA 93rd Offensive EGA 94th Excess Goals 11th eGoals/Shot 72nd Shooting Percentage 68th Shot-on-Goal Rate 59th Play Shares 94th PRO Definitions
#4 – Marc Orourke (Bryant) – 6.80 goals added Apr 27 vs LIU Opp ELO: 1466 This has been an, admittedly, down year for the Bryant offense. They’ve followed a weird zig-zag pattern over the past few years. Here is their year by year r aw offensive efficiency: ’17: 29.0% ’18: 32.3% ’19: 26.15 ’20: 32.8% ’21: 27.8% Not sure what to make of that exactly, but regardless, O’Rourke has started strong in his 2 games played after missing the first 8 Bulldogs’ games of the year. Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 98th Total EGA 97th Offensive EGA 98th Excess Goals 4th eGoals/Shot 71st Shooting Percentage 68th Shot-on-Goal Rate 42nd Play Shares 97th PRO Definitions You wonder if his teammates are deferring to him out of sympathy that he didn’t get to play until recently. O’Rourke is averaging 19 shots across his 2 games played, which is nearly 8 shots/gm more than the 2nd place player (Jake Carraway – Georgetown). In fact, the 19 shots/gm average that O’Rourke sits on is the highest (by a full 6 shots) of any player in my MLAX database, which goes back to 2015. Box Score Stats Goals Assists Shots (OG) 6 1 24 (14) GBs FO Won FO Pct 2 0 N/A Turnovers Penalties Caused TO 0 0 1 Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 98th Total EGA 97th Offensive EGA 98th Excess Goals 4th eGoals/Shot 71st Shooting Percentage 68th Shot-on-Goal Rate 42nd Play Shares 97th PRO Definitions
#5 – Tommy Burke (Vermont) – 6.55 goals added Apr 28 vs Albany Opp ELO: 1593 Tommy Burke had himself a week. Across 2 games (Albany on Wednesday and Stony Brook on Saturday), he won 45 ot 62 faceoffs. For his efforts, he climbed into the number 7 spot in the faceoff Elo ratings. Burke has adjusted to the new rules very well this season. His win rate (70.4%) is up 24 percentage points over last season, and the Catamounts are reaping the benefits to the tune of a +7.9 possession advantage this year. Last year, they were down a possession a game. Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 98th Total EGA 87th Faceoff EGA 91st Excess Goals 27th Shooting Percentage 37th Faceoff Win% 92nd Faceoff Elo 98th Play Shares 93rd PRO Definitions Box Score Stats Goals Assists Shots (OG) 0 0 1 (1) GBs FO Won FO Pct 14 23 69% Turnovers Penalties Caused TO 1 0 0 Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 98th Total EGA 87th Faceoff EGA 91st Excess Goals 27th Shooting Percentage 37th Faceoff Win% 92nd Faceoff Elo 98th Play Shares 93rd PRO Definitions
#6 – Ashton Wood (Mercer) – 6.38 goals added May 1 vs Bellarmine Opp ELO: 1263 Vintage FOGO day here. against Bellarmine, in a game that Mercer lost 11 – 8. Add in 16 ground balls and 20 faceoff wins and you’ve got a pretty full stat sheet. No trillion-club here. Repeat this against a team stronger than Bellarmine, and he’ll really get people talking. Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 99th Total EGA 96th Faceoff EGA 97th Excess Goals 18th Shooting Percentage 63rd Faceoff Win% 91st Faceoff Elo 98th Play Shares 99th PRO Definitions Box Score Stats Goals Assists Shots (OG) 0 0 0 (0) GBs FO Won FO Pct 16 20 90% Turnovers Penalties Caused TO 1 0 0 Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 99th Total EGA 96th Faceoff EGA 97th Excess Goals 18th Shooting Percentage 63rd Faceoff Win% 91st Faceoff Elo 98th Play Shares 99th PRO Definitions
#7 – Tommy Burke (Vermont) – 6.16 goals added May 1 vs Stony Brook Opp ELO: 1585 See above. One other nugget though: aside from Brown’s single victory, Vermont is the only team to in D1 MLAX to have enjoyed a possession advantage in every game they’ve played this season. Burke is, obviously, the biggest reason for that. Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 98th Total EGA 87th Faceoff EGA 91st Excess Goals 27th Shooting Percentage 37th Faceoff Win% 92nd Faceoff Elo 98th Play Shares 93rd PRO Definitions Box Score Stats Goals Assists Shots (OG) 0 0 1 (1) GBs FO Won FO Pct 12 22 75% Turnovers Penalties Caused TO 1 0 1 Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 98th Total EGA 87th Faceoff EGA 91st Excess Goals 27th Shooting Percentage 37th Faceoff Win% 92nd Faceoff Elo 98th Play Shares 93rd PRO Definitions
#8 – Brendan Nichtern (Army) – 6.14 goals added Apr 30 vs Colgate Opp ELO: 1342 Nichtern has had a target on his back this season. His weighted play share is down from 14.1% last year to 12.9% this year. He’s taking a full shot/gm less than he did last year. Opponents have been successful with this strategy, as the Black Knights’ offensive efficiency is down nearly 6 percentage points from last season. The big indicator for them is whether he’s able to turn that extra attention into opportunities for teammates. In their 3 losses, he’s got 1.6 assists/gm. In the 6 wins, that figure is 3.8. If he’s not going to get his goals this year, Army’s post-season success is going to come down to how many he can create for his running mates. Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 98th Total EGA 97th Offensive EGA 98th Excess Goals 4th eGoals/Shot 63rd Shooting Percentage 61st Shot-on-Goal Rate 48th Play Shares 99th PRO Definitions Box Score Stats Goals Assists Shots (OG) 3 5 5 (4) GBs FO Won FO Pct 1 0 N/A Turnovers Penalties Caused TO 0 0 1 Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 98th Total EGA 97th Offensive EGA 98th Excess Goals 4th eGoals/Shot 63rd Shooting Percentage 61st Shot-on-Goal Rate 48th Play Shares 99th PRO Definitions
#9 – David Closterman (Vermont) – 6.12 goals added May 1 vs Stony Brook Opp ELO: 1585 Closterman get the efficiency award this week. He had zero turnovers to with his 9 points. His 6 goals came on just 8 shots. Throw in a GB and that stat-sheet was filled with all the right type of squigglies. On the year, Closterman has doubled his assist rate from last season (1.55 per game compared to .75 last year). I’m guessing that may have been a point of emphasis for the entire offense; their assist rate last year was just 48.8%, which is the lowest mark they have put up in 7 years. This year they are back up to a more normal 56.6%. Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 91st Total EGA 88th Offensive EGA 91st Excess Goals 72nd eGoals/Shot 87th Shooting Percentage 85th Shot-on-Goal Rate 60th Play Shares 90th PRO Definitions Box Score Stats Goals Assists Shots (OG) 6 3 9 (8) GBs FO Won FO Pct 1 0 N/A Turnovers Penalties Caused TO 0 0 0 Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 91st Total EGA 88th Offensive EGA 91st Excess Goals 72nd eGoals/Shot 87th Shooting Percentage 85th Shot-on-Goal Rate 60th Play Shares 90th PRO Definitions
#10 – Mike Robinson (Delaware) – 5.75 goals added Apr 30 vs UMass Opp ELO: 1656 It’s a good sign when you can win in different ways. The Blue Hens shot just 21% against UMass, but still won fairly comfortably thanks to a strong effort on the defensive end. Robinson didn’t have a typical day. His 3 goals came on 17 shots, and honestly, he’s on this list more because of the 9 GBs than the offensive output. It’s a robust team that can win different ways, and you need players will to adapt to do it. Great sign for Delaware as the enter the CAA tournament. Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 98th Total EGA 88th Offensive EGA 89th Excess Goals 10th eGoals/Shot 68th Shooting Percentage 69th Shot-on-Goal Rate 60th Play Shares 99th PRO Definitions Box Score Stats Goals Assists Shots (OG) 3 0 17 (8) GBs FO Won FO Pct 9 0 N/A Turnovers Penalties Caused TO 2 0 0 Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 98th Total EGA 88th Offensive EGA 89th Excess Goals 10th eGoals/Shot 68th Shooting Percentage 69th Shot-on-Goal Rate 60th Play Shares 99th PRO Definitions

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