Top Individual Performances (Week 13 MLAX)
Each week, we will look back at the games that were to see which players had the largest individual performances. I say largest because the contributions that we can measure (from play by play) tend to be things that are easy to count. This includes, goals, shots, assists, turnovers, penalties, etc. We can’t measure a defender who shuts down an opposing player so completely that he doesn’t even touch the ball. Still, it is interesting to be able to identify the players that really filled it up each weekend and give them a shout out here. | |
For a bit of background, in order to rank single game performances, we needed a way to condense box score stats to a single number for each player. In order to do this, we relied on our expected goal values methodology, which assigns a goal value to each type of play depending on how often it leads to a goal in the next 60 seconds. By adding up all the expected goals added for each player, we can get to that single number and these rankings. | |
We have also tagged each performance with the opponent’s ELO rating. The higher the number, the stronger the opponent. This should help to give some context for each performance. Did the player feast on the dregs of D1 or did they put up these numbers against a quality opponent? | |
A quick note: whenever you see the PRO logo (![]() ![]() |
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Top Single Game Scores of the week |
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#1 – Pat Kavanagh (Notre Dame) – 9.22 goals added
May 1 vs Syracuse Opp ELO: 1675
I don’t think anyone would be surprised at the #1 EGA game then week. Kavanagh led the charge for a dominant Irish win over Syracuse.
Kavanagh has been making a push for Tewaaraton-finalist status. I always think about offensive players along 2 dimensions: ability to create offense for others and ability to finish their own chances. Here is how Kavanagh’s 2021 campaign compares. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
99th
Total EGA
87th
Offensive EGA
89th
Excess Goals
17th
eGoals/Shot
62nd
Shooting Percentage
67th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
50th
Play Shares
98th
![]() Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
5
5
11 (6)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
5
0
N/A
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
1
0
2
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
99th
Total EGA
87th
Offensive EGA
89th
Excess Goals
17th
eGoals/Shot
62nd
Shooting Percentage
67th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
50th
Play Shares
98th
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#2 – Jacob Alexander (Bryant) – 9.06 goals added
Apr 27 vs LIU Opp ELO: 1466
When you have 72 offensive possessions and there are 37 goals scored, conditions are ripe for big FOGO EGA games. Jacob Alexander took advantage with a 30-win day against Bryant.
Oh, and the 30 faceoff wins? Career high. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
95th
Total EGA
73rd
Faceoff EGA
81st
Excess Goals
43rd
Shooting Percentage
84th
Faceoff Win%
90th
Faceoff Elo
82nd
Play Shares
69th
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
1
0
4 (3)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
16
30
75%
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
3
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
95th
Total EGA
73rd
Faceoff EGA
81st
Excess Goals
43rd
Shooting Percentage
84th
Faceoff Win%
90th
Faceoff Elo
82nd
Play Shares
69th
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#3 – Jack Kiernan (Siena) – 6.98 goals added
Apr 30 vs Monmouth Opp ELO: 1354
Tough year for Siena. They are winless, but 4 of those losses were by a single goal. While they didn’t get the victory in this game, we should still recognize Kiernan’s strong game. He shot 5 of 8, and that 63% mark was a season-high. In his other game with 5 goals, it took him 16 shots to get there.
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
95th
Total EGA
93rd
Offensive EGA
94th
Excess Goals
11th
eGoals/Shot
72nd
Shooting Percentage
68th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
59th
Play Shares
94th
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
5
2
8 (8)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
6
0
N/A
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
1
0
1
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
95th
Total EGA
93rd
Offensive EGA
94th
Excess Goals
11th
eGoals/Shot
72nd
Shooting Percentage
68th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
59th
Play Shares
94th
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#4 – Marc Orourke (Bryant) – 6.80 goals added
Apr 27 vs LIU Opp ELO: 1466
This has been an, admittedly, down year for the Bryant offense. They’ve followed a weird zig-zag pattern over the past few years. Here is their year by year r aw offensive efficiency:
’17: 29.0% Not sure what to make of that exactly, but regardless, O’Rourke has started strong in his 2 games played after missing the first 8 Bulldogs’ games of the year. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
98th
Total EGA
97th
Offensive EGA
98th
Excess Goals
4th
eGoals/Shot
71st
Shooting Percentage
68th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
42nd
Play Shares
97th
You wonder if his teammates are deferring to him out of sympathy that he didn’t get to play until recently. O’Rourke is averaging 19 shots across his 2 games played, which is nearly 8 shots/gm more than the 2nd place player (Jake Carraway – Georgetown). In fact, the 19 shots/gm average that O’Rourke sits on is the highest (by a full 6 shots) of any player in my MLAX database, which goes back to 2015.
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
6
1
24 (14)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
2
0
N/A
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
0
0
1
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
98th
Total EGA
97th
Offensive EGA
98th
Excess Goals
4th
eGoals/Shot
71st
Shooting Percentage
68th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
42nd
Play Shares
97th
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#5 – Tommy Burke (Vermont) – 6.55 goals added
Apr 28 vs Albany Opp ELO: 1593
Tommy Burke had himself a week. Across 2 games (Albany on Wednesday and Stony Brook on Saturday), he won 45 ot 62 faceoffs. For his efforts, he climbed into the number 7 spot in the faceoff Elo ratings.
Burke has adjusted to the new rules very well this season. His win rate (70.4%) is up 24 percentage points over last season, and the Catamounts are reaping the benefits to the tune of a +7.9 possession advantage this year. Last year, they were down a possession a game. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
98th
Total EGA
87th
Faceoff EGA
91st
Excess Goals
27th
Shooting Percentage
37th
Faceoff Win%
92nd
Faceoff Elo
98th
Play Shares
93rd
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
0
0
1 (1)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
14
23
69%
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
1
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
98th
Total EGA
87th
Faceoff EGA
91st
Excess Goals
27th
Shooting Percentage
37th
Faceoff Win%
92nd
Faceoff Elo
98th
Play Shares
93rd
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#6 – Ashton Wood (Mercer) – 6.38 goals added
May 1 vs Bellarmine Opp ELO: 1263
Vintage FOGO day here. against Bellarmine, in a game that Mercer lost 11 – 8. Add in 16 ground balls and 20 faceoff wins and you’ve got a pretty full stat sheet. No trillion-club here.
Repeat this against a team stronger than Bellarmine, and he’ll really get people talking. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
99th
Total EGA
96th
Faceoff EGA
97th
Excess Goals
18th
Shooting Percentage
63rd
Faceoff Win%
91st
Faceoff Elo
98th
Play Shares
99th
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
0
0
0 (0)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
16
20
90%
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
1
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
99th
Total EGA
96th
Faceoff EGA
97th
Excess Goals
18th
Shooting Percentage
63rd
Faceoff Win%
91st
Faceoff Elo
98th
Play Shares
99th
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#7 – Tommy Burke (Vermont) – 6.16 goals added
May 1 vs Stony Brook Opp ELO: 1585
See above.
One other nugget though: aside from Brown’s single victory, Vermont is the only team to in D1 MLAX to have enjoyed a possession advantage in every game they’ve played this season. Burke is, obviously, the biggest reason for that. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
98th
Total EGA
87th
Faceoff EGA
91st
Excess Goals
27th
Shooting Percentage
37th
Faceoff Win%
92nd
Faceoff Elo
98th
Play Shares
93rd
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
0
0
1 (1)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
12
22
75%
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
1
0
1
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
98th
Total EGA
87th
Faceoff EGA
91st
Excess Goals
27th
Shooting Percentage
37th
Faceoff Win%
92nd
Faceoff Elo
98th
Play Shares
93rd
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#8 – Brendan Nichtern (Army) – 6.14 goals added
Apr 30 vs Colgate Opp ELO: 1342
Nichtern has had a target on his back this season. His weighted play share is down from 14.1% last year to 12.9% this year. He’s taking a full shot/gm less than he did last year.
Opponents have been successful with this strategy, as the Black Knights’ offensive efficiency is down nearly 6 percentage points from last season. The big indicator for them is whether he’s able to turn that extra attention into opportunities for teammates. In their 3 losses, he’s got 1.6 assists/gm. In the 6 wins, that figure is 3.8. If he’s not going to get his goals this year, Army’s post-season success is going to come down to how many he can create for his running mates. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
98th
Total EGA
97th
Offensive EGA
98th
Excess Goals
4th
eGoals/Shot
63rd
Shooting Percentage
61st
Shot-on-Goal Rate
48th
Play Shares
99th
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
3
5
5 (4)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
1
0
N/A
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
0
0
1
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
98th
Total EGA
97th
Offensive EGA
98th
Excess Goals
4th
eGoals/Shot
63rd
Shooting Percentage
61st
Shot-on-Goal Rate
48th
Play Shares
99th
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#9 – David Closterman (Vermont) – 6.12 goals added
May 1 vs Stony Brook Opp ELO: 1585
Closterman get the efficiency award this week. He had zero turnovers to with his 9 points. His 6 goals came on just 8 shots. Throw in a GB and that stat-sheet was filled with all the right type of squigglies.
On the year, Closterman has doubled his assist rate from last season (1.55 per game compared to .75 last year). I’m guessing that may have been a point of emphasis for the entire offense; their assist rate last year was just 48.8%, which is the lowest mark they have put up in 7 years. This year they are back up to a more normal 56.6%. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
91st
Total EGA
88th
Offensive EGA
91st
Excess Goals
72nd
eGoals/Shot
87th
Shooting Percentage
85th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
60th
Play Shares
90th
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
6
3
9 (8)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
1
0
N/A
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
0
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
91st
Total EGA
88th
Offensive EGA
91st
Excess Goals
72nd
eGoals/Shot
87th
Shooting Percentage
85th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
60th
Play Shares
90th
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#10 – Mike Robinson (Delaware) – 5.75 goals added
Apr 30 vs UMass Opp ELO: 1656
It’s a good sign when you can win in different ways. The Blue Hens shot just 21% against UMass, but still won fairly comfortably thanks to a strong effort on the defensive end.
Robinson didn’t have a typical day. His 3 goals came on 17 shots, and honestly, he’s on this list more because of the 9 GBs than the offensive output. It’s a robust team that can win different ways, and you need players will to adapt to do it. Great sign for Delaware as the enter the CAA tournament. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
98th
Total EGA
88th
Offensive EGA
89th
Excess Goals
10th
eGoals/Shot
68th
Shooting Percentage
69th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
60th
Play Shares
99th
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
3
0
17 (8)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
9
0
N/A
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
2
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
98th
Total EGA
88th
Offensive EGA
89th
Excess Goals
10th
eGoals/Shot
68th
Shooting Percentage
69th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
60th
Play Shares
99th
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