Top Individual Performances (Week 8 WLAX)
Each week, we will look back at the games that were to see which players had the largest individual performances. I say largest because the contributions that we can measure (from play by play) tend to be things that are easy to count. This includes, goals, shots, assists, turnovers, penalties, etc. We can’t measure a defender who shuts down an opposing player so completely that she doesn’t even touch the ball. Still, it is interesting to be able to identify the players that really filled it up each weekend and give them a shout out here. | |
For a bit of background, in order to rank single game performances, we needed a way to condense box score stats to a single number for each player. In order to do this, we relied on our expected goal values methodology, which assigns a goal value to each type of play depending on how often it leads to a goal in the next 60 seconds. By adding up all the expected goals added for each player, we can get to that single number and these rankings. | |
We have also tagged each performance with the opponent’s ELO rating. The higher the number, the stronger the opponent. This should help to give some context for each performance. Did the player feast on the dregs of D1 or did they put up these numbers against a quality opponent? | |
A quick note: whenever you see the PRO logo (![]() ![]() |
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Top Single Game Scores of the week |
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#1 – Natalie Karlen (Central Michigan) – 10.26 goals added
Apr 1 vs Kent State Opp ELO: 964
Karlen’s game against Kent State was a rare game that earned more than 10 EGA. A 13-point outing will do that. Her 55.6% shooting mark was more or less equaled by her teammates. The CMU mark of 58.3% for the day was their best shooting performance of the season.
That has been a theme of Karlen’s season so far. She is shooting 49.3% on the year, which is a career high. That, combine with a increased in attempts / game from 6.2 to 8.1, is why her EGA per game average is 4.56 this year. That is, of course, also a career high. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
95th
Total EGA
98th
Offensive EGA
98th
Excess Goals
5th
eGoals/Shot
65th
Shooting Percentage
61st
Shot-on-Goal Rate
46th
Play Shares
97th
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots
10
3
14
GBs
Draw Controls
SOG
1
0
12
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
2
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
95th
Total EGA
98th
Offensive EGA
98th
Excess Goals
5th
eGoals/Shot
65th
Shooting Percentage
61st
Shot-on-Goal Rate
46th
Play Shares
97th
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#2 – Ally Kennedy (Stony Brook) – 8.78 goals added
Apr 3 vs Vermont Opp ELO: 1536
Ally Kennedy has enjoyed conference play. The Seawolves took some lumps in their non-conference schedule, but since the loss to Syracuse, they’ve reeled off 7 straight wins. And in that stretch, Kennedy has had some of her best games, culminating in the 7 goal explosion against the Catamounts.
It would be fair to say that she dominated this game. Her play share was 15.9% in this one, which is the highest usage rate she’s had since Mar 7 against Towson. Sometimes, you just have to let your star go and get out of the way. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
99th
Total EGA
99th
Offensive EGA
99th
Excess Goals
8th
eGoals/Shot
72nd
Shooting Percentage
72nd
Shot-on-Goal Rate
61st
Play Shares
97th
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots
7
0
12
GBs
Draw Controls
SOG
1
6
9
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
2
0
1
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
99th
Total EGA
99th
Offensive EGA
99th
Excess Goals
8th
eGoals/Shot
72nd
Shooting Percentage
72nd
Shot-on-Goal Rate
61st
Play Shares
97th
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#3 – Elisabeth Ralph (Wofford) – 7.94 goals added
Mar 31 vs Presbyterian Opp ELO: 764
Talk about a change-of-fortune. On Feb 25, the Terriers lost to the Blue Hose by a score of 16-9. The offense put up an anemic 20% efficiency rating and for Elisabeth Ralph, it was not a day to remember. She scored 2 goals, but have 2 turnovers and ended with a 2.24 EGA stat line.
Flip the calendar to March, and the story was a bit different. She gook 14 shots (season high) and canned 8 goals (season high) while committing zero turnovers. Best game of the year, by far, for Wofford. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
86th
Total EGA
79th
Offensive EGA
79th
Excess Goals
88th
eGoals/Shot
84th
Shooting Percentage
81st
Shot-on-Goal Rate
76th
Play Shares
94th
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots
8
0
14
GBs
Draw Controls
SOG
0
3
13
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
0
1
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
86th
Total EGA
79th
Offensive EGA
79th
Excess Goals
88th
eGoals/Shot
84th
Shooting Percentage
81st
Shot-on-Goal Rate
76th
Play Shares
94th
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#4 – Siena Gore (Kennesaw State) – 7.84 goals added
Mar 30 vs Winthrop Opp ELO: 1268
The Owls have now played Winthrop to a tie this year. In 2 games, both teams have scored 23 goals. In this one, Winthrop got the better of Kennesaw State, in part by clamping own on the Owls offense. It was the first time since a loss to Florida that KSU scored fewer than 13 goals.
Still, Gore had a big day, even if her teammates did not. She scored 10 goals on 6 shots, which actually slighted dropped her season shooting percentage to 62%. But I’m sure that when she looks back on this day, she’ll be focused on the 4 turnovers. A spot on the EGA list is no balm for a disappointing mark in the loss column. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
99th
Total EGA
99th
Offensive EGA
99th
Excess Goals
99th
eGoals/Shot
89th
Shooting Percentage
87th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
51st
Play Shares
99th
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots
6
0
10
GBs
Draw Controls
SOG
5
5
8
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
4
1
1
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
99th
Total EGA
99th
Offensive EGA
99th
Excess Goals
99th
eGoals/Shot
89th
Shooting Percentage
87th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
51st
Play Shares
99th
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#5 – Charlotte North (Boston College) – 7.64 goals added
Apr 3 vs Duke Opp ELO: 1810
That had to feel good. A tight victory over her former team. 6 goals on 9 shots. It’s been a difficult run for BC; their past 3 games have been against the 10th and 16th rated defenses nationally (on an opponent-adjusted basis).
But they came out of it 3-0 and firmly cemented with Syracuse at the top of the 2nd tier of ACC teams. I continue to be impressed with North’s shot-making ability this year. Despite all the attention that opposing defenses are giving her, she’s managed a plus excess shooting mark and greatly improved on her 2020 shooting percentage. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
99th
Total EGA
99th
Offensive EGA
99th
Excess Goals
99th
eGoals/Shot
87th
Shooting Percentage
87th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
57th
Play Shares
98th
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots
6
0
9
GBs
Draw Controls
SOG
0
7
7
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
3
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
99th
Total EGA
99th
Offensive EGA
99th
Excess Goals
99th
eGoals/Shot
87th
Shooting Percentage
87th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
57th
Play Shares
98th
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#6 – Casey Harkins (American) – 7.19 goals added
Apr 3 vs Bucknell Opp ELO: 1234
In the 2 games before American played Bucknell, Harkins took 8 shots, put 5 on goal and ended up with 0 goals (although she did have 5 assists against Longwood). That is not to say that she played poorly, just that those were the stats. Then, against the Bison, she scored 5 goals on 7 shots and still found the time to ring up 6 helpers. Busy day.
It’s been a hot-or-cold situation for Harkins so far this year. She has the aforementioned 2 games where she could get anything to go. In her other 3 games, she shot 83%, 75% and 71%. Go figure. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
88th
Total EGA
93rd
Offensive EGA
93rd
Excess Goals
14th
eGoals/Shot
59th
Shooting Percentage
51st
Shot-on-Goal Rate
57th
Play Shares
88th
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots
5
6
7
GBs
Draw Controls
SOG
3
0
7
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
4
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
88th
Total EGA
93rd
Offensive EGA
93rd
Excess Goals
14th
eGoals/Shot
59th
Shooting Percentage
51st
Shot-on-Goal Rate
57th
Play Shares
88th
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#7 – Juliana George (VCU) – 7.18 goals added
Apr 1 vs George Mason Opp ELO: 1483
The game against Mason, was the season’s best effort for VCU. Their 44.9% efficiency mark was a season high, in part because they only turned it over on 18% of their possessions.
George had 3 of those turnovers, but more than made up for it with 6 points, a 44% shooting mark and 3 ground balls. For the year, her shooting has been the main area of improvement. She shot just 25% in 2020; that mark in 2021 (so far): 43%. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
89th
Total EGA
72nd
Offensive EGA
75th
Excess Goals
27th
eGoals/Shot
49th
Shooting Percentage
49th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
42nd
Play Shares
93rd
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots
4
2
9
GBs
Draw Controls
SOG
3
8
9
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
3
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
89th
Total EGA
72nd
Offensive EGA
75th
Excess Goals
27th
eGoals/Shot
49th
Shooting Percentage
49th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
42nd
Play Shares
93rd
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#8 – Jay Browne (Stanford) – 6.87 goals added
Mar 31 vs Fresno State Opp ELO: 1318
Browne is another one of those young players whose game has shown a lot of maturity in the COVID season. Since last year, her turnover rate has nearly halved and she’s averaging nearly 2 full assists more than last year.
Her play share is up, while her shots/gm is down, which indicates that she’s settling into a facilitator role within this offense. And against Fresno, that was on full display. The 7 assists was a season high. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
93rd
Total EGA
72nd
Offensive EGA
75th
Excess Goals
72nd
eGoals/Shot
82nd
Shooting Percentage
85th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
82nd
Play Shares
91st
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots
2
7
3
GBs
Draw Controls
SOG
6
0
3
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
2
0
2
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
93rd
Total EGA
72nd
Offensive EGA
75th
Excess Goals
72nd
eGoals/Shot
82nd
Shooting Percentage
85th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
82nd
Play Shares
91st
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#9 – Karson Harris (Drexel) – 6.19 goals added
Apr 3 vs Hofstra Opp ELO: 1637
Karson Harris (and all the Dragons, really) for the win! The Hofstra game was a lopsided victory for the Drexel squad and an extremely efficient one for Harris. She only took 6 shots, but 5 were on goal and 4 were in the back of the net. She’s been shooting great all season, but the distinguishing thing about this performance is how she was able to create her own offense.
Assisted goals are great, but sometimes, you just need a player to take the bull by the horns and make things happen. She did that in this one. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
99th
Total EGA
99th
Offensive EGA
97th
Excess Goals
48th
eGoals/Shot
83rd
Shooting Percentage
83rd
Shot-on-Goal Rate
68th
Play Shares
99th
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots
4
1
6
GBs
Draw Controls
SOG
2
4
5
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
1
0
1
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
99th
Total EGA
99th
Offensive EGA
97th
Excess Goals
48th
eGoals/Shot
83rd
Shooting Percentage
83rd
Shot-on-Goal Rate
68th
Play Shares
99th
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#10 – Sadie Grozier (Colorado) – 6.16 goals added
Apr 2 vs USC Opp ELO: 1991
Grozier keyed the offense for the Buffs in a nice win over the Trojans. Her 5 goals matched her season high (SDSU on Pi Day) and she added an assist and a GB. Perhaps most importantly, she kept her stat line clean with no turnovers.
That has been the big trend for Grozier over her career. Here is her individual turnover rate by year: ’18: 1.02 It’s amazing what having your top usage players be secure with the ball does for an offense. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
87th
Total EGA
93rd
Offensive EGA
95th
Excess Goals
1st
eGoals/Shot
43rd
Shooting Percentage
42nd
Shot-on-Goal Rate
72nd
Play Shares
91st
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots
5
1
8
GBs
Draw Controls
SOG
1
0
8
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
0
0
1
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
87th
Total EGA
93rd
Offensive EGA
95th
Excess Goals
1st
eGoals/Shot
43rd
Shooting Percentage
42nd
Shot-on-Goal Rate
72nd
Play Shares
91st
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