Stats & Analysis

Top Individual Performances (Week 7 MLAX)

0 Comment March 29, 2021

Each week, we will look back at the games that were to see which players had the largest individual performances. I say largest because the contributions that we can measure (from play by play) tend to be things that are easy to count. This includes, goals, shots, assists, turnovers, penalties, etc. We can’t measure a defender who shuts down an opposing player so completely that he doesn’t even touch the ball. Still, it is interesting to be able to identify the players that really filled it up each weekend and give them a shout out here.
For a bit of background, in order to rank single game performances, we needed a way to condense box score stats to a single number for each player. In order to do this, we relied on our expected goal values methodology, which assigns a goal value to each type of play depending on how often it leads to a goal in the next 60 seconds. By adding up all the expected goals added for each player, we can get to that single number and these rankings.
We have also tagged each performance with the opponent’s ELO rating. The higher the number, the stronger the opponent. This should help to give some context for each performance. Did the player feast on the dregs of D1 or did they put up these numbers against a quality opponent?
A quick note: whenever you see the PRO logo () a click will take you directly to the player’s PRO page. In some cases, you’ll see the “unlocked” PRO logo () which tells you that the player’s team is unlocked and you’ll be able to see all the PRO content.
Top Single Game Scores of the week
#1 – Jake Naso (Duke) – 7.89 goals added Mar 25 vs Syracuse Opp ELO: 1733 Adler made the save at the end to seal the victory, but the MVP for Duke was Jake Naso. Cuse won the efficiency battle, but Duke won the game because of the +8 possession advantage they enjoyed. The Blue Devils won 57.5% of their faceoffs last year. This year, it’s 60.7%. Their offense was 36.5% last year. This year it’s 36.8%. They added quite a few names on offense, but just based on results, the addition of Naso may turn out to be the bigger deal. Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 98th Total EGA 80th Faceoff EGA 87th Excess Goals 96th Shooting Percentage 99th Faceoff Win% 92nd Faceoff Elo 94th Play Shares 97th PRO Definitions Box Score Stats Goals Assists Shots (OG) 1 0 1 (1) GBs FO Won FO Pct 14 24 75% Turnovers Penalties Caused TO 0 0 0 Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 98th Total EGA 80th Faceoff EGA 87th Excess Goals 96th Shooting Percentage 99th Faceoff Win% 92nd Faceoff Elo 94th Play Shares 97th PRO Definitions
#2 – Nathan Kapp (Jacksonville) – 7.69 goals added Mar 27 vs VMI Opp ELO: 1014 2nd slot, 2nd FOGO. Nathan Kapp’s game against VMI can certainly be excused based on the opponent. VMI is the worst opp-adjusted FO unit in the country. You can’t ignore Kapp’s progress though. His win percentage is up almost 17 percentage points since last year, and he’s currently 8th in the faceoff Elo ratings. Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 95th Total EGA 82nd Faceoff EGA 88th Excess Goals 38th Shooting Percentage 61st Faceoff Win% 81st Faceoff Elo 98th Play Shares 95th PRO Definitions Box Score Stats Goals Assists Shots (OG) 0 1 1 (0) GBs FO Won FO Pct 18 26 89% Turnovers Penalties Caused TO 4 1 0 Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 95th Total EGA 82nd Faceoff EGA 88th Excess Goals 38th Shooting Percentage 61st Faceoff Win% 81st Faceoff Elo 98th Play Shares 95th PRO Definitions
#3 – Zach Cole (Saint Joseph’s) – 7.26 goals added Mar 27 vs Mount St Marys Opp ELO: 1302 Zach Cole is our 3rd FOGO to head this week’s list after a 20 win day against MSM on Saturday. Cole hasn’t quite regained his stature from last season, but the tide continues to turn for the Hawks’ star. He did record his 1st goal of the year in this one, helping the EGA total up to season-high levels. Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 99th Total EGA 95th Faceoff EGA 96th Excess Goals 7th Shooting Percentage 42nd Faceoff Win% 93rd Faceoff Elo 97th Play Shares 99th PRO Definitions Box Score Stats Goals Assists Shots (OG) 1 0 4 (3) GBs FO Won FO Pct 14 20 64% Turnovers Penalties Caused TO 1 0 0 Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 99th Total EGA 95th Faceoff EGA 96th Excess Goals 7th Shooting Percentage 42nd Faceoff Win% 93rd Faceoff Elo 97th Play Shares 99th PRO Definitions
#4 – Jimmeh Koita (Drexel) – 6.83 goals added Mar 27 vs Robert Morris Opp ELO: 1518 Jimmeh Koita had a bit of a down year in the shortened 2020 season. His 46.1% win rate was his lowest total since his freshman season in 2017. He has bounced back in 2021, posting a 55.1% win rate that is only behind his breakout 57% mark in 2019. It does help the EGA figures that this was the fastest paced, highest scoring game that the Dragons have played all season. Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 95th Total EGA 98th Faceoff EGA 99th Excess Goals 19th Shooting Percentage 50th Faceoff Win% 78th Faceoff Elo 89th Play Shares 97th PRO Definitions Box Score Stats Goals Assists Shots (OG) 0 1 0 (0) GBs FO Won FO Pct 13 23 67% Turnovers Penalties Caused TO 1 0 0 Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 95th Total EGA 98th Faceoff EGA 99th Excess Goals 19th Shooting Percentage 50th Faceoff Win% 78th Faceoff Elo 89th Play Shares 97th PRO Definitions
#5 – Ryan Tierney (Hofstra) – 6.17 goals added Mar 26 vs Fairfield Opp ELO: 1388 Finally, a non-FOGO. Tierney strikes again after a more-than-3 week absence because of COVID issues. The big difference in this game is that he was more of a one-man-show. In previous outings, a lot of his goals were assisted. In this one, he was able to generate his own offense. I believe that team level assist rates are overrated; sometimes you just need that guy who can go get a goal. Tierney showing off that skill bodes well for the remainder of the Pride’s season. Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 98th Total EGA 99th Offensive EGA 99th Excess Goals 1st eGoals/Shot 71st Shooting Percentage 67th Shot-on-Goal Rate 54th Play Shares 99th PRO Definitions Box Score Stats Goals Assists Shots (OG) 5 1 15 (11) GBs FO Won FO Pct 2 0 N/A Turnovers Penalties Caused TO 1 1 2 Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 98th Total EGA 99th Offensive EGA 99th Excess Goals 1st eGoals/Shot 71st Shooting Percentage 67th Shot-on-Goal Rate 54th Play Shares 99th PRO Definitions
#6 – Tommy Burke (Vermont) – 6.09 goals added Mar 27 vs Hartford Opp ELO: 1287 Only our #2 player this week, Nathan Kapp, has seen a larger rise in his faceoff Elo rating than Burke this year. Of note, Burke’s 2021 win rate is 22 percentage points better than his mark from last year (68.5% vs 46.4%). As a result he’s jumped up to the number 5 slot in the faceoff Elo ratings. If you are trying to make a list of the biggest improvements, whether from the new rules or just organic player development, Burke has to be near or at the top of that list. Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 96th Total EGA 78th Faceoff EGA 85th Excess Goals 39th Shooting Percentage 42nd Faceoff Win% 90th Faceoff Elo 99th Play Shares 92nd PRO Definitions Box Score Stats Goals Assists Shots (OG) 1 0 1 (1) GBs FO Won FO Pct 10 19 73% Turnovers Penalties Caused TO 1 0 0 Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 96th Total EGA 78th Faceoff EGA 85th Excess Goals 39th Shooting Percentage 42nd Faceoff Win% 90th Faceoff Elo 99th Play Shares 92nd PRO Definitions
#7 – Ethan Walker (Denver) – 5.82 goals added Mar 27 vs Providence Opp ELO: 1572 Ethan Walker and the Pios cruised to a 19-11 victory, thanks in part to a +15 possession margin bestowed upon them by the best FO unit in the country. The big difference for Walker in this matchup (compared to the first game against the Friars) was opportunity. He only took 2 shots the first time around, compared to 9 attempts in this one. The other big difference was his activity in the groundball game. His 4 GBs made this a well-rounded effort. Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 97th Total EGA 99th Offensive EGA 99th Excess Goals 7th eGoals/Shot 80th Shooting Percentage 81st Shot-on-Goal Rate 73rd Play Shares 97th PRO Definitions Box Score Stats Goals Assists Shots (OG) 4 2 9 (6) GBs FO Won FO Pct 4 0 N/A Turnovers Penalties Caused TO 1 0 0 Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 97th Total EGA 99th Offensive EGA 99th Excess Goals 7th eGoals/Shot 80th Shooting Percentage 81st Shot-on-Goal Rate 73rd Play Shares 97th PRO Definitions
#8 – Owen Corry (NJIT) – 5.67 goals added Mar 27 vs UMass-Lowell Opp ELO: 1242 I was happy to see that a Highlander made this week’s list. The game on Saturday was the first AEC win for the program and so represents a pretty big milestone in the life of a newer program. Combine that with the success LIU has had this year, and the prospects for new entrants in D1 is looking up. Owen Corry had a breakout game in this one with 56% shooting mark that was a season-high. He’s been much improved this year, with career highs in basically every statistical category. Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 83rd Total EGA 63rd Offensive EGA 71st Excess Goals 17th eGoals/Shot 39th Shooting Percentage 30th Shot-on-Goal Rate 14th Play Shares 96th PRO Definitions Box Score Stats Goals Assists Shots (OG) 5 2 9 (6) GBs FO Won FO Pct 1 0 N/A Turnovers Penalties Caused TO 1 0 0 Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 83rd Total EGA 63rd Offensive EGA 71st Excess Goals 17th eGoals/Shot 39th Shooting Percentage 30th Shot-on-Goal Rate 14th Play Shares 96th PRO Definitions
#9 – Brian Herber (Hofstra) – 5.48 goals added Mar 26 vs Fairfield Opp ELO: 1388 Tierney gets the highlights, but Herber has been as important to the Pride’s 4-1 start as anyone. Take just one example, Hofstra has had a +8.6 possession advantage average this year. Last year, that figure was a respectable +4.9. Given the struggles on defense (55th rated on an opp-adjusted basis), the possession edge has been crucial. In the 4 wins, they’ve been +9, +9, +10, +13. In their lone loss, they were basically even on possessionns (+1 against SJU). Herber has won 66.7% this year, up from 62.9% last year. Take a few possessions away here and there, and Hofstra could easily have more than the 1 loss. Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 96th Total EGA 94th Faceoff EGA 96th Excess Goals 52nd Shooting Percentage 79th Faceoff Win% 88th Faceoff Elo 96th Play Shares 95th PRO Definitions Box Score Stats Goals Assists Shots (OG) 0 0 2 (1) GBs FO Won FO Pct 12 18 75% Turnovers Penalties Caused TO 1 0 0 Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 96th Total EGA 94th Faceoff EGA 96th Excess Goals 52nd Shooting Percentage 79th Faceoff Win% 88th Faceoff Elo 96th Play Shares 95th PRO Definitions
#10 – Anthony DiMatteo (LIU) – 5.46 goals added Mar 27 vs Wagner Opp ELO: 1008 Two weeks in a row that LIU has placed a player on this list. Last week it was LaCalandra; this week it’s DiMatteo after a 16 FO win / 13 GB day against Wagner. It’s a hidden stat most of the time, so it doesn’t get the attention I think it deserves, but a big part of what has driven the Sharks’ success this year is possessions. Last year, they averaged 5.1 fewer possessions than their opponents. This year, they are averaging 3.5 more possessions. The only game where they did not have an advantage on possessions was against Hobart. Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 94th Total EGA 40th Faceoff EGA 60th Excess Goals 73rd Shooting Percentage 31st Faceoff Win% 90th Faceoff Elo 77th Play Shares 63rd PRO Definitions Box Score Stats Goals Assists Shots (OG) 0 0 1 (0) GBs FO Won FO Pct 13 16 57% Turnovers Penalties Caused TO 0 0 0 Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 94th Total EGA 40th Faceoff EGA 60th Excess Goals 73rd Shooting Percentage 31st Faceoff Win% 90th Faceoff Elo 77th Play Shares 63rd PRO Definitions

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