That has been the story of his career. Never a great shooter, Lanchbury has become a bigger and bigger driver of the Richmond offense in his time there. The chart below shows the year-over-year growth in his assist share (the percentage of all Richmond assists he records).

High Point currently sits in 10th in the opp-adjusted efficiency ratings, but 31st in TO%. That is the dark-side of Nolting’s season (and career). His individual turnover rate is 1.29 in 2021, which puts him in the 9th percentile in D1 MLAX. Not great.

I think that really speaks to an issue with the HPU offensive scheme. They have the 42nd best expected shooting percentage this year, which means that the quality of their shots is not great. They make up for it by being a bunch of sharp-shooters, with a +9.4% excess shooting percentage. Their offense doesn’t generate great shots; they rely on great shooters to turn meh shots into goals.

Bryant’s an interesting team because they tend to have fairly well-regarded units on offense and defense. This year, they are pairing that with a faceoff unit that holds its own and, to-date, has given the Bulldogs a +6 per-game possession advantage. I don’t know what to make of the NEC this year, but Bryant is certainly poised to have their say in how that conference shakes out.

Adding the goal and the assist was a nice cherry-on-top.

You can also see it in his assist totals. He’s averaging 2.3 per game, up from 1.6 last year. And his assist share is 19.4%, also the highest of his career.

I think it would be fair to say that UVA loses this game if not for his 22 faceoff wins. His win rate is 7.8 percentage points higher than last year and he’s currently sitting 2nd in the faceoff Elo ratings behind Notre Dame’s Kyle Gallagher.

What’s changed is that they aren’t canning nearly as many. A lot of the overperformance last year was the result of a +4.8 excess shooting mark; their 35.4% shooting mark was 4.8 percentage points better than we would expect from a league-average shooting team. This year, by that same mark, they are at -0.8, only a bit worse than league average. If they can regain some of that shooting stroke, maybe they can get the offense closer to where it was last year.

Could not be further from the truth with LIU. Compared to their first year, and these are opponent-adjusted figures, there defensive is nearly 8 percentage points better, they are facing off 15 points better, and their keepers have been 7 points better. The offense? 2 points worse. Not there is anything wrong with that; improvement in 3 of the 4 key areas is a massive step forward.

Now, all that said, LaCalandra has been a big part of the reason they are 4-1. His shooting is much improved this year and his turnover rate is down. Interestingly, his overall play share is down a bit from last year, while his shots are up. Seems like LIU has been doing a better job fitting players into the right roles this year on offense.

For the season, Towson has assisted on 58% of their goals, but that is roughly unchanged from last year (57.1%). The real reason the offense is nearly 3 percentage points better in 2021 is shooting. They’ve created better shots than last year, and after accounting for that, their shooters have been more effective as well.