Top Individual Performances (Week 6 MLAX)
Each week, we will look back at the games that were to see which players had the largest individual performances. I say largest because the contributions that we can measure (from play by play) tend to be things that are easy to count. This includes, goals, shots, assists, turnovers, penalties, etc. We can’t measure a defender who shuts down an opposing player so completely that he doesn’t even touch the ball. Still, it is interesting to be able to identify the players that really filled it up each weekend and give them a shout out here. | |
For a bit of background, in order to rank single game performances, we needed a way to condense box score stats to a single number for each player. In order to do this, we relied on our expected goal values methodology, which assigns a goal value to each type of play depending on how often it leads to a goal in the next 60 seconds. By adding up all the expected goals added for each player, we can get to that single number and these rankings. | |
We have also tagged each performance with the opponent’s ELO rating. The higher the number, the stronger the opponent. This should help to give some context for each performance. Did the player feast on the dregs of D1 or did they put up these numbers against a quality opponent? | |
A quick note: whenever you see the PRO logo (![]() ![]() |
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Top Single Game Scores of the week |
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#1 – Ryan Lanchbury (Richmond) – 6.99 goals added
Mar 20 vs Bellarmine Opp ELO: 1263
Don’t look now, but Richmond has quietly put together a season where they have the #20 rated offense after adjusting for opposing defenses. And on this day, it was 9 assists from Lanchbury that helped the Spiders hit 40+% offensive efficiency for the first time this year. He is up to 18 assists on the season, and has a 41% assist share. Throw in 3 GBs and it was a very full stat-sheet.
That has been the story of his career. Never a great shooter, Lanchbury has become a bigger and bigger driver of the Richmond offense in his time there. The chart below shows the year-over-year growth in his assist share (the percentage of all Richmond assists he records). Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
94th
Total EGA
97th
Offensive EGA
98th
Excess Goals
3rd
eGoals/Shot
69th
Shooting Percentage
75th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
69th
Play Shares
97th
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
3
9
9 (6)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
3
0
N/A
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
2
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
94th
Total EGA
97th
Offensive EGA
98th
Excess Goals
3rd
eGoals/Shot
69th
Shooting Percentage
75th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
69th
Play Shares
97th
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#2 – Asher Nolting (High Point) – 6.72 goals added
Mar 19 vs VMI Opp ELO: 1041
The biggest shift for Nolting this year has been his shooting. For the first time in his career, he’s got a positive excess shooting percentage. That means that he is now combining his ability to get to spots with an above-average ability to convert those chances into goals. That’s a potent combination.
High Point currently sits in 10th in the opp-adjusted efficiency ratings, but 31st in TO%. That is the dark-side of Nolting’s season (and career). His individual turnover rate is 1.29 in 2021, which puts him in the 9th percentile in D1 MLAX. Not great. I think that really speaks to an issue with the HPU offensive scheme. They have the 42nd best expected shooting percentage this year, which means that the quality of their shots is not great. They make up for it by being a bunch of sharp-shooters, with a +9.4% excess shooting percentage. Their offense doesn’t generate great shots; they rely on great shooters to turn meh shots into goals. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
98th
Total EGA
98th
Offensive EGA
99th
Excess Goals
11th
eGoals/Shot
79th
Shooting Percentage
78th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
57th
Play Shares
99th
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
6
4
7 (7)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
1
0
N/A
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
1
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
98th
Total EGA
98th
Offensive EGA
99th
Excess Goals
11th
eGoals/Shot
79th
Shooting Percentage
78th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
57th
Play Shares
99th
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#3 – Jacob Alexander (Bryant) – 6.71 goals added
Mar 21 vs Wagner Opp ELO: 1041
Always nice to note some career highs. This game was Alexander’s most faceoffs taken, most faceoff wins, highest faceoff win-rate, most points, most GBs, most shots and of course, highest EGA total.
Bryant’s an interesting team because they tend to have fairly well-regarded units on offense and defense. This year, they are pairing that with a faceoff unit that holds its own and, to-date, has given the Bulldogs a +6 per-game possession advantage. I don’t know what to make of the NEC this year, but Bryant is certainly poised to have their say in how that conference shakes out. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
81st
Total EGA
47th
Faceoff EGA
64th
Excess Goals
47th
Shooting Percentage
60th
Faceoff Win%
90th
Faceoff Elo
21st
Play Shares
53rd
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
1
0
3 (3)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
13
19
73%
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
1
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
81st
Total EGA
47th
Faceoff EGA
64th
Excess Goals
47th
Shooting Percentage
60th
Faceoff Win%
90th
Faceoff Elo
21st
Play Shares
53rd
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#4 – Collin Hoben (High Point) – 6.21 goals added
Mar 19 vs VMI Opp ELO: 1041
Collin Hoben was a big part of the reason that Nolting and the offense were able to put away the Keydets. For the game, they ended up with a +17 possession advantage, and his 17-7 record at the faceoff x went a long way toward making that happen.
Adding the goal and the assist was a nice cherry-on-top. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
87th
Total EGA
73rd
Faceoff EGA
82nd
Excess Goals
63rd
Shooting Percentage
60th
Faceoff Win%
85th
Faceoff Elo
91st
Play Shares
84th
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
1
1
1 (1)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
9
17
70%
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
0
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
87th
Total EGA
73rd
Faceoff EGA
82nd
Excess Goals
63rd
Shooting Percentage
60th
Faceoff Win%
85th
Faceoff Elo
91st
Play Shares
84th
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#5 – Tehoka Nanticoke (Albany) – 6.12 goals added
Mar 20 vs Binghamton Opp ELO: 1302
Big day for Tehoka against Binghamton. And a full day for the stat line. 9 points is a season high. A big positive for Albany this year is that Nanticoke has a lower play share than last season (in part from missing their first game), but even in the games he’s played, he has yet to have a raw play share value over 10%. That means his teammates are picking up more of the slack.
You can also see it in his assist totals. He’s averaging 2.3 per game, up from 1.6 last year. And his assist share is 19.4%, also the highest of his career. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
97th
Total EGA
97th
Offensive EGA
98th
Excess Goals
1st
eGoals/Shot
60th
Shooting Percentage
63rd
Shot-on-Goal Rate
65th
Play Shares
97th
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
6
3
13 (12)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
1
0
N/A
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
3
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
97th
Total EGA
97th
Offensive EGA
98th
Excess Goals
1st
eGoals/Shot
60th
Shooting Percentage
63rd
Shot-on-Goal Rate
65th
Play Shares
97th
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#6 – Petey LaSalla (Virginia) – 6.09 goals added
Mar 20 vs Robert Morris Opp ELO: 1536
The Cavs are lucky to escape this one with a win. It was their 2nd worst offensive showing of the season. It was an ok defensive day. It was their worst day with respect to turnovers all season. The bright spot: it was LaSalla’s best day at the faceoff x so far.
I think it would be fair to say that UVA loses this game if not for his 22 faceoff wins. His win rate is 7.8 percentage points higher than last year and he’s currently sitting 2nd in the faceoff Elo ratings behind Notre Dame’s Kyle Gallagher. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
97th
Total EGA
96th
Faceoff EGA
96th
Excess Goals
20th
Shooting Percentage
79th
Faceoff Win%
89th
Faceoff Elo
99th
Play Shares
95th
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
0
1
1 (1)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
9
22
81%
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
0
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
97th
Total EGA
96th
Faceoff EGA
96th
Excess Goals
20th
Shooting Percentage
79th
Faceoff Win%
89th
Faceoff Elo
99th
Play Shares
95th
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#7 – Dylan Beckwith (Fairfield) – 6.03 goals added
Mar 17 vs Sacred Heart Opp ELO: 1339
Last year, Fairfield was scorching the nets to the tune of a 39.9% offensive efficiency mark. They have come back to earth this year, currently sitting at 29.9%. And if you dig in, the sjots they are generating roughly are almost exactly the same quality as the shots they were getting last year (30.3% expected shooting pct this year vs 30.6% last year).
What’s changed is that they aren’t canning nearly as many. A lot of the overperformance last year was the result of a +4.8 excess shooting mark; their 35.4% shooting mark was 4.8 percentage points better than we would expect from a league-average shooting team. This year, by that same mark, they are at -0.8, only a bit worse than league average. If they can regain some of that shooting stroke, maybe they can get the offense closer to where it was last year. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
96th
Total EGA
98th
Offensive EGA
99th
Excess Goals
1st
eGoals/Shot
60th
Shooting Percentage
59th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
49th
Play Shares
98th
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
5
4
11 (7)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
3
0
N/A
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
6
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
96th
Total EGA
98th
Offensive EGA
99th
Excess Goals
1st
eGoals/Shot
60th
Shooting Percentage
59th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
49th
Play Shares
98th
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#8 – Richie LaCalandra (LIU) – 5.91 goals added
Mar 20 vs Sacred Heart Opp ELO: 1324
Ok, LIU is now 2-1 over Sacred Heart and 2-0 over everyone else. Weird, but it’s a weird year. Regardless, it’s fun to see a newer program on the D1 level having success. It’s tempting to see a new team having success, to see some offensive highlights from their games and conclude that it’s an offensive-led renaissance.
Could not be further from the truth with LIU. Compared to their first year, and these are opponent-adjusted figures, there defensive is nearly 8 percentage points better, they are facing off 15 points better, and their keepers have been 7 points better. The offense? 2 points worse. Not there is anything wrong with that; improvement in 3 of the 4 key areas is a massive step forward. Now, all that said, LaCalandra has been a big part of the reason they are 4-1. His shooting is much improved this year and his turnover rate is down. Interestingly, his overall play share is down a bit from last year, while his shots are up. Seems like LIU has been doing a better job fitting players into the right roles this year on offense. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
99th
Total EGA
82nd
Offensive EGA
87th
Excess Goals
22nd
eGoals/Shot
67th
Shooting Percentage
69th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
66th
Play Shares
99th
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
4
3
10 (9)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
0
0
N/A
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
0
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
99th
Total EGA
82nd
Offensive EGA
87th
Excess Goals
22nd
eGoals/Shot
67th
Shooting Percentage
69th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
66th
Play Shares
99th
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#9 – James Avanzato (Towson) – 5.90 goals added
Mar 20 vs Delaware Opp ELO: 1650
Another tough ending for the Tigers, but they can be pleased with the game Avanzato ended up with. He had 5 assists on a day when two thirds of the Tigers’ goals were assisted. Add in 2 goals, and it’s an impressive stat line.
For the season, Towson has assisted on 58% of their goals, but that is roughly unchanged from last year (57.1%). The real reason the offense is nearly 3 percentage points better in 2021 is shooting. They’ve created better shots than last year, and after accounting for that, their shooters have been more effective as well. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
82nd
Total EGA
67th
Offensive EGA
76th
Excess Goals
31st
eGoals/Shot
71st
Shooting Percentage
68th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
45th
Play Shares
84th
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
2
5
9 (3)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
2
0
N/A
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
2
0
2
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
82nd
Total EGA
67th
Offensive EGA
76th
Excess Goals
31st
eGoals/Shot
71st
Shooting Percentage
68th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
45th
Play Shares
84th
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#10 – Zach Cole (Saint Joseph’s) – 5.89 goals added
Mar 20 vs Merrimack Opp ELO: 1424
For the second time in as many weeks, Zach Cole regained some of his 2020 form and landed a slot on the top-10 list. This time, it was for an 18/19 performance against Merrimack. This time game under his belt, his season win rate jumps up to 70.9% (still down from 75.6% last year). And he has rebounded to the 7th rated FOGO in the faceoff Elo ratings.
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
99th
Total EGA
95th
Faceoff EGA
96th
Excess Goals
7th
Shooting Percentage
39th
Faceoff Win%
93rd
Faceoff Elo
98th
Play Shares
99th
Box Score Stats
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
0
0
3 (3)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
14
18
94%
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
0
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
99th
Total EGA
95th
Faceoff EGA
96th
Excess Goals
7th
Shooting Percentage
39th
Faceoff Win%
93rd
Faceoff Elo
98th
Play Shares
99th
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