Top Individual Performances (Week 5 WLAX)

0 Comment March 16, 2021

Each week, we will look back at the games that were to see which players had the largest individual performances. I say largest because the contributions that we can measure (from play by play) tend to be things that are easy to count. This includes, goals, shots, assists, turnovers, penalties, etc. We can’t measure a defender who shuts down an opposing player so completely that she doesn’t even touch the ball. Still, it is interesting to be able to identify the players that really filled it up each weekend and give them a shout out here.
For a bit of background, in order to rank single game performances, we needed a way to condense box score stats to a single number for each player. In order to do this, we relied on our expected goal values methodology, which assigns a goal value to each type of play depending on how often it leads to a goal in the next 60 seconds. By adding up all the expected goals added for each player, we can get to that single number and these rankings.
We have also tagged each performance with the opponent’s ELO rating. The higher the number, the stronger the opponent. This should help to give some context for each performance. Did the player feast on the dregs of D1 or did they put up these numbers against a quality opponent?
A quick note: whenever you see the PRO logo () a click will take you directly to the player’s PRO page. In some cases, you’ll see the “unlocked” PRO logo () which tells you that the player’s team is unlocked and you’ll be able to see all the PRO content.
Top Single Game Scores of the week
#1 – Charlotte North (Boston College) – 10.20 goals added Mar 13 vs Virginia Opp ELO: 1912 The script I run to calculate this list also produces some summary stats for each of the top players to help me craft these little snippets. The most telling thing about Charlotte North’s 10.20 EGA game against UVA is that the script thinks she is primarily a draw control specialist because she won so many draws. Of course, she also scored 7 goals, had 2 assists, and at least as many highlight reel plays. It was an impressive performance…to say the least. (As a reminder, BC is the “unlocked” WLAX team on the PRO site right now if you want to really dig into their stats.) Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 99th Total EGA 99th Offensive EGA 99th Excess Goals 99th eGoals/Shot 87th Shooting Percentage 87th Shot-on-Goal Rate 60th Play Shares 98th PRO Definitions If you drill down into the trends for North and BC, one thing stands out; she’s not having to shoulder as much of the offensive load this year. You heard that right; despite all the highlights, her teammates are picking up a larger share of the burden. This shows how her assist share has changed (percentage of all team assists she had). I suspect that part of the reason she’s been able to generate all these highlights is precisely because her teammates are more productive. Otherwise it’s too easy for defenses to key on her. And the result, is a big uptick in her shooting percentage. And of course, when your best player is doing that, it makes the whole offense work better. So far this year, BC has the #1 opponent-adjusted shooting percentage and the #2 rated offense overall. Box Score Stats Goals Assists Shots 7 2 7 GBs Draw Controls SOG 0 14 7 Turnovers Penalties Caused TO 0 1 1 Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 99th Total EGA 99th Offensive EGA 99th Excess Goals 99th eGoals/Shot 87th Shooting Percentage 87th Shot-on-Goal Rate 60th Play Shares 98th PRO Definitions
#2 – Alyssa Parrella (Hofstra) – 10.01 goals added Mar 13 vs Villanova Opp ELO: 1378 Villanova won this game 12-9. Or, you could look at it a different way: Alyssa Parrella 10 – Villanova 9. Hard to overstate what an important part of this offense she is. Take a look at the games they’ve played and the number of shots she’s taken. SJU – 12 (W) UConn – 16 (W) Albany – 6 (L) Nova -18 (W) Notice a pattern. Albany was the only game where her play share was under 10%. When she’s been able to get going, the offense has been good enough to win. When she didn’t, they lost. Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 99th Total EGA 99th Offensive EGA 99th Excess Goals 2nd eGoals/Shot 69th Shooting Percentage 66th Shot-on-Goal Rate 52nd Play Shares 99th PRO Definitions Box Score Stats Goals Assists Shots 10 0 18 GBs Draw Controls SOG 1 4 14 Turnovers Penalties Caused TO 3 0 1 Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 99th Total EGA 99th Offensive EGA 99th Excess Goals 2nd eGoals/Shot 69th Shooting Percentage 66th Shot-on-Goal Rate 52nd Play Shares 99th PRO Definitions
#3 – Erin Kerstetter (Wagner) – 8.64 goals added Mar 10 vs LIU Opp ELO: 1223 Kerstetter makes her 2nd appearance on the weekly list with a mid-week 8.64 EGA outing against LIU. Interestingly, this game could hardly be more different, statistically, than her 8.09 EGA game back in February. To start, in this one, she only shot 33%, where she shot 67% against Nova. In that game, most of her EGA came from her goals, but in this one, she had 5 GBs and 3 assists to go along with 4 goals. That’s a good sign for her though; having more ways to impact the game leads to a more robust season, no matter what the situation. Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 99th Total EGA 75th Offensive EGA 72nd Excess Goals 27th eGoals/Shot 47th Shooting Percentage 53rd Shot-on-Goal Rate 76th Play Shares 82nd PRO Definitions Box Score Stats Goals Assists Shots 4 3 12 GBs Draw Controls SOG 5 5 11 Turnovers Penalties Caused TO 0 0 2 Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 99th Total EGA 75th Offensive EGA 72nd Excess Goals 27th eGoals/Shot 47th Shooting Percentage 53rd Shot-on-Goal Rate 76th Play Shares 82nd PRO Definitions
#4 – Emma Vinall (American) – 8.43 goals added Mar 13 vs Lehigh Opp ELO: 1644 Welcome to the party Emma Vinall. She was one of the highest scoring EGA players last season, before COVID took away the rest of the year, so it is a minor surprise that it’s taken 3 full games for her to post a total that lands her on this list. The downside for American is that she had to take so much on her shoulders in this game. Her play share of 23% is way higher than her first two games and her season play share is up 3 percentage points from last year. If they are going to get into the win column, they are going to need someone else to take some of the burden off Vinall’s shoulders. Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 99th Total EGA 97th Offensive EGA 96th Excess Goals 99th eGoals/Shot 87th Shooting Percentage 86th Shot-on-Goal Rate 59th Play Shares 97th PRO Definitions Box Score Stats Goals Assists Shots 5 1 10 GBs Draw Controls SOG 2 10 8 Turnovers Penalties Caused TO 2 1 2 Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 99th Total EGA 97th Offensive EGA 96th Excess Goals 99th eGoals/Shot 87th Shooting Percentage 86th Shot-on-Goal Rate 59th Play Shares 97th PRO Definitions
#5 – Lauren Gilbert (Northwestern) – 8.19 goals added Mar 11 vs Penn State Opp ELO: 1759 Penn State played Northwestern much tougher in the 2nd game of the weekend. But in the first, they couldn’t handle the efficient machine that was Lauren Gilbert. She shot 70% and managed grab 3 GBs. So far in 2021, she’s done more or less what she did last year, just more often. She’s taken 8.4 shots per game, up from 5.6 last year, and her shooting percentage has hardly budged. As a team, it’s interesting to see how Penn State was able to learn from the first game and played much stouter defense in the 2nd. On Thursday, the Wildcats put up a 51.1% efficiency rating on offense. On Saturday, it was just 37%. Penn State didn’t force more turnovers, but they did limit NU to “just” 48.6% shooting. Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 92nd Total EGA 95th Offensive EGA 95th Excess Goals 72nd eGoals/Shot 83rd Shooting Percentage 85th Shot-on-Goal Rate 72nd Play Shares 85th PRO Definitions Box Score Stats Goals Assists Shots 7 1 10 GBs Draw Controls SOG 3 7 9 Turnovers Penalties Caused TO 0 0 0 Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 92nd Total EGA 95th Offensive EGA 95th Excess Goals 72nd eGoals/Shot 83rd Shooting Percentage 85th Shot-on-Goal Rate 72nd Play Shares 85th PRO Definitions
#6 – Marissa Gore (Kennesaw State) – 8.11 goals added Mar 15 vs Stetson Opp ELO: 1091 Kennesaw always seems to find their way on to this list. This week it was Marissa Gore, with 7 points in the win over Stetson. Gore is a case study in what ball security can do for a player. She is shooting almost exactly the same percentage as last year (53.6% vs 53.3% last year), but she’s averaging a full goal/game more because her individual turnover rate has nearly halved (.88 last year to .49 this year). Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 93rd Total EGA 94th Offensive EGA 90th Excess Goals 21st eGoals/Shot 69th Shooting Percentage 66th Shot-on-Goal Rate 70th Play Shares 95th PRO Definitions Box Score Stats Goals Assists Shots 6 1 10 GBs Draw Controls SOG 5 3 10 Turnovers Penalties Caused TO 1 3 2 Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 93rd Total EGA 94th Offensive EGA 90th Excess Goals 21st eGoals/Shot 69th Shooting Percentage 66th Shot-on-Goal Rate 70th Play Shares 95th PRO Definitions
#7 – Courtney Renehan (UMBC) – 7.56 goals added Mar 13 vs Hartford Opp ELO: 701 Courtney Renehan supplied the fireworks for the Retrievers in Catonsville on Saturday. She poured in 7 goals on 8 shots. She is shooting an impressive 61% this year (after a 60% mark last year). Getting Renehan more shots might be a good idea for this offense. For her career, she’s in the 89th percentile of qualifying players in both shooting percentage and excess shooting percentage. Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 92nd Total EGA 72nd Offensive EGA 69th Excess Goals 96th eGoals/Shot 89th Shooting Percentage 89th Shot-on-Goal Rate 64th Play Shares 74th PRO Definitions Box Score Stats Goals Assists Shots 7 0 8 GBs Draw Controls SOG 1 4 8 Turnovers Penalties Caused TO 0 2 1 Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 92nd Total EGA 72nd Offensive EGA 69th Excess Goals 96th eGoals/Shot 89th Shooting Percentage 89th Shot-on-Goal Rate 64th Play Shares 74th PRO Definitions
#8 – Katia Carnevale (Lehigh) – 7.41 goals added Mar 13 vs American Opp ELO: 1359 Lehigh has rolled off 2 straight victories after starting the year 0-2. In their win over LaSalle, the defense was the story, limiting their opponent to 6 goals. While the defense was still pretty solid in this one, the offense had a much better day. Granted, American doesn’t pose nearly the defensive challenge as LaSalle did. Regardless, Katia Carnevale had a day. 8 of 9 shooting raises her season shooting percentage to 43% (up from 36.7% last year). Her turnover rate is basically unchanged from last season, so her productivity gains this year can be chalked up to better accuracy. Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 93rd Total EGA 71st Offensive EGA 74th Excess Goals 16th eGoals/Shot 47th Shooting Percentage 44th Shot-on-Goal Rate 59th Play Shares 98th PRO Definitions Box Score Stats Goals Assists Shots 8 0 9 GBs Draw Controls SOG 2 0 9 Turnovers Penalties Caused TO 1 0 3 Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 93rd Total EGA 71st Offensive EGA 74th Excess Goals 16th eGoals/Shot 47th Shooting Percentage 44th Shot-on-Goal Rate 59th Play Shares 98th PRO Definitions
#9 – Alexis Kiefer (Akron) – 7.30 goals added Mar 9 vs Delaware State Opp ELO: 718 If you just rank teams in terms of improvement over last year, there aren’t many that have made a bigger jump than Akron. They finished 2020 with a 15% offensive efficiency rating. This year, they are at 21.9%. Still not setting the world on fire, but for a new program, improvement is what matters. And they have found an offensive engine in Kiefer it would appear. Last year, she took 2.9 shots per game. This year so far: 7.2. Her shooting percentage is way up from last year as well. Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 90th Total EGA 68th Offensive EGA 64th Excess Goals 23rd eGoals/Shot 40th Shooting Percentage 33rd Shot-on-Goal Rate 25th Play Shares 97th PRO Definitions Box Score Stats Goals Assists Shots 6 1 15 GBs Draw Controls SOG 3 4 9 Turnovers Penalties Caused TO 1 0 1 Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 90th Total EGA 68th Offensive EGA 64th Excess Goals 23rd eGoals/Shot 40th Shooting Percentage 33rd Shot-on-Goal Rate 25th Play Shares 97th PRO Definitions
#10 – Erin Kerstetter (Wagner) – 7.30 goals added Mar 13 vs Bryant Opp ELO: 1559 Double dip for Kerstetter. She may have had a higher EGA total against LIU, but this game is probably more impressive because of the opposition. Bryant is the 43rd ranked defense in the country. LIU is 77th. So while the raw efficiency numbers suggest that Wagner played better against LIU (32.6% efficiency vs 30.8% in this one), using the opponent-adjustments tells a different story. After accounting for the fact that Bryant has a much better D, their offensive output was 3.4 percentage points better in this one (33.7% vs 30.3%). Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 99th Total EGA 75th Offensive EGA 72nd Excess Goals 27th eGoals/Shot 47th Shooting Percentage 53rd Shot-on-Goal Rate 76th Play Shares 82nd PRO Definitions Box Score Stats Goals Assists Shots 4 3 10 GBs Draw Controls SOG 4 4 9 Turnovers Penalties Caused TO 3 0 0 Career Stat Percentile EGA/game 99th Total EGA 75th Offensive EGA 72nd Excess Goals 27th eGoals/Shot 47th Shooting Percentage 53rd Shot-on-Goal Rate 76th Play Shares 82nd PRO Definitions