Top Individual Performances (Week 5 MLAX)
Each week, we will look back at the games that were to see which players had the largest individual performances. I say largest because the contributions that we can measure (from play by play) tend to be things that are easy to count. This includes, goals, shots, assists, turnovers, penalties, etc. We can’t measure a defender who shuts down an opposing player so completely that he doesn’t even touch the ball. Still, it is interesting to be able to identify the players that really filled it up each weekend and give them a shout out here. | |
For a bit of background, in order to rank single game performances, we needed a way to condense box score stats to a single number for each player. In order to do this, we relied on our expected goal values methodology, which assigns a goal value to each type of play depending on how often it leads to a goal in the next 60 seconds. By adding up all the expected goals added for each player, we can get to that single number and these rankings. | |
We have also tagged each performance with the opponent’s ELO rating. The higher the number, the stronger the opponent. This should help to give some context for each performance. Did the player feast on the dregs of D1 or did they put up these numbers against a quality opponent? | |
A quick note: whenever you see the PRO logo (![]() ![]() |
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Top Single Game Scores of the week |
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#1 – Jared Bernhardt (Maryland) – 7.12 goals added
Mar 13 vs Rutgers Opp ELO: 1662
For 3 quarters, this was an evenly matched battle between two national championship contenders. Then Maryland turned on the after-burners and ran away with it in the 4th quarter. This was far and away the best performance for the Maryland offense. They scored on 47.5% of their possessions, which is the highest of the season. And it came against the best defense they’ve faced to date. Rutgers has the 8th best defensive unit in all of D1 MLAX. Hopkins is 18th and PSU is 20th.
For Bernhardt, it was just another steady game. As his season has gone along, he’s steadily taken a few more shots and made a slightly higher percentage in each game. In a lot of ways, his season has mirrored the offense as a whole. But they keep getting better against better and better defenses. Scary. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
96th
Total EGA
99th
Offensive EGA
99th
Excess Goals
9th
eGoals/Shot
80th
Shooting Percentage
82nd
Shot-on-Goal Rate
75th
Play Shares
96th
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
6
1
11 (8)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
3
0
N/A
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
1
0
1
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
96th
Total EGA
99th
Offensive EGA
99th
Excess Goals
9th
eGoals/Shot
80th
Shooting Percentage
82nd
Shot-on-Goal Rate
75th
Play Shares
96th
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#2 – Justin Coppola (Villanova) – 6.76 goals added
Mar 14 vs St. John’s Opp ELO: 1270
Big day at the faceoff X for Justin Coppola. He was nearly perfect winning 20 of 22 faceoffs against St John’s. This year so far, Villanova has the 20th ranked faceoff unit after adjusted for the strength of their opponents’ faceoff group.
Coppola has made some strides this year, his faceoff win rate is at 63%, compared to 43.7% last year. He is up to #11 in the faceoff Elo ratings as of this writing. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
94th
Total EGA
77th
Faceoff EGA
85th
Excess Goals
87th
Shooting Percentage
92nd
Faceoff Win%
78th
Faceoff Elo
97th
Play Shares
96th
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
1
1
1 (1)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
10
20
90%
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
1
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
94th
Total EGA
77th
Faceoff EGA
85th
Excess Goals
87th
Shooting Percentage
92nd
Faceoff Win%
78th
Faceoff Elo
97th
Play Shares
96th
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#3 – Jacob Griffin (Richmond) – 6.73 goals added
Mar 13 vs VMI Opp ELO: 1075
Against Duke, Griffin took 3 faceoffs for Richmond. Against VMI, he had 3 faceoffs losses…and 22 faceoffs wins.
Since I’ve tracked this stuff (2015), Richmond has never registered a season faceoff win rate higher than 34%. All they’ve accomplished, they’ve accomplished while carrying around a possession deficit. Not saying that one game against VMI changes that, but if they ever figure out faceoffs, their stranglehold on the SoCon is only going to grow stronger. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
75th
Total EGA
70th
Faceoff EGA
82nd
Excess Goals
42nd
Shooting Percentage
31st
Faceoff Win%
68th
Faceoff Elo
96th
Play Shares
75th
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
0
0
0 (0)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
16
22
88%
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
1
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
75th
Total EGA
70th
Faceoff EGA
82nd
Excess Goals
42nd
Shooting Percentage
31st
Faceoff Win%
68th
Faceoff Elo
96th
Play Shares
75th
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#4 – Jack Rooney (Merrimack) – 6.37 goals added
Mar 13 vs Wagner Opp ELO: 1043
Rooney was the hot hand for the Warriors against Wagner. This EGA total is mostly a reflection of opportunity; he shot about as well as he has shot all year, but in this game, he had a season high 14 shots. Add in 4 GBs and you get yourself a 6.37 EGA day.
The trick for Rooney and the Warriors will be to repeat the performance against a better defense. Their two wins have come against defenses ranked 53rd and 56th. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
96th
Total EGA
57th
Offensive EGA
68th
Excess Goals
35th
eGoals/Shot
59th
Shooting Percentage
65th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
50th
Play Shares
77th
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
5
1
14 (9)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
4
0
N/A
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
0
0
3
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
96th
Total EGA
57th
Offensive EGA
68th
Excess Goals
35th
eGoals/Shot
59th
Shooting Percentage
65th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
50th
Play Shares
77th
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#5 – Dalton Young (Richmond) – 6.13 goals added
Mar 13 vs VMI Opp ELO: 1075
Young let out some frustration against the Keydets. After a zero-point 3-turnover game against Duke, he was a picture of efficiency in this one. 7 goals on 8 shots is not too shabby.
Now, you can discount this because of the opponent, but Young’s game has seen an important improvement since last year. In ’20, on a per shot basis, his excess goal mark was -.07. That means that for every 14 shots he took, we would expect him to score 1 less goal than a league average shooter. This year, he is at +.06. Going from a negative excess goals guy to a positive is huge for any player. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
90th
Total EGA
63rd
Offensive EGA
74th
Excess Goals
95th
eGoals/Shot
89th
Shooting Percentage
90th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
88th
Play Shares
78th
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
7
0
8 (8)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
3
0
N/A
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
1
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
90th
Total EGA
63rd
Offensive EGA
74th
Excess Goals
95th
eGoals/Shot
89th
Shooting Percentage
90th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
88th
Play Shares
78th
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#6 – Mike Sisselberger (Lehigh) – 5.97 goals added
Mar 14 vs Bucknell Opp ELO: 1615
You know I’m a fan of statistical oddities, so here’s one for you. Mike Sisselberger has 16 faceoff wins in all 3 Mountain Hawk games this year.
His EGA totals so far are 5.92, 5.82, 5.97. Lehigh’s possession margin so far in 3 games: +10, +11, +12. Outside of the statistical consistency, Sisselberger has been great this year for Lehigh. If you’d told me that Connor Gaffney would have taken less than 10 faceoffs this year, I would not have guess in a million years that Lehigh would have improved their possession margin. But they have. Lehigh has always enjoyed a positive possession advantage. Last year it was a very strong +6.2. This year: +11. The offense is playing a full4 percentage points better than last year. As a result, Lehigh now has a 58% chance at the top-seed in the Patriot League tournament. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
96th
Total EGA
75th
Faceoff EGA
82nd
Excess Goals
48th
Shooting Percentage
68th
Faceoff Win%
92nd
Faceoff Elo
99th
Play Shares
94th
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
1
0
2 (2)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
12
16
69%
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
1
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
96th
Total EGA
75th
Faceoff EGA
82nd
Excess Goals
48th
Shooting Percentage
68th
Faceoff Win%
92nd
Faceoff Elo
99th
Play Shares
94th
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#7 – Timmy Ley (Boston U) – 5.81 goals added
Mar 12 vs Holy Cross Opp ELO: 1463
Ley has been on a shooting tear. His 58.6% shooting mark puts him in the 89th percentile this season. His 7 goals on 13 shots mark was actually his worst shooting performance of the season, which is a bit crazy.
He’s another guy who has gone from a net negative shooter to a net positive. It has only been 3ngames though, so we will see if that holds up through PL play. The fact that he managed a 57% shooting day against Army suggests that it might. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
89th
Total EGA
85th
Offensive EGA
87th
Excess Goals
50th
eGoals/Shot
85th
Shooting Percentage
87th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
78th
Play Shares
92nd
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
7
2
13 (9)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
1
0
N/A
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
2
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
89th
Total EGA
85th
Offensive EGA
87th
Excess Goals
50th
eGoals/Shot
85th
Shooting Percentage
87th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
78th
Play Shares
92nd
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#8 – Zach Cole (Saint Joseph’s) – 5.80 goals added
Mar 8 vs Wagner Opp ELO: 1075
I am not a faceoff guy. Hard for me to say what impact the new rules have had. That said, it is hard to look at Zach Cole’s season and not wonder whether the rules are having an impact on him. He has seen the 2nd largest drop in his faceoff Elo rating (only Justin Shockey of Maryland has had a larger fall). His win rate is down 8.6% from last year.
So it was nice to see Cole have a vintage game against Wagner last Monday. It was his highest win rate of the year, and he threw in an assist too. Now his challenge is to find that consistency again. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
99th
Total EGA
95th
Faceoff EGA
96th
Excess Goals
10th
Shooting Percentage
42nd
Faceoff Win%
92nd
Faceoff Elo
94th
Play Shares
99th
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
0
1
0 (0)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
14
16
76%
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
1
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
99th
Total EGA
95th
Faceoff EGA
96th
Excess Goals
10th
Shooting Percentage
42nd
Faceoff Win%
92nd
Faceoff Elo
94th
Play Shares
99th
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#9 – Adam Shea (Hobart) – 5.78 goals added
Mar 13 vs LIU Opp ELO: 1435
LIU got the big win against Hobart, but you can’t pin any of that on Adam Shea. The Statesmen won 73% of the faceoffs in this one and managed a +8 possession margin.
Shea is at 71.4% on the year and has junped his faceoff Elo from 1563 to 1621. He is now rated as the 18th best FOGO in the country. The issue for Hobart is that they have yet to figure out how their pieces fit together into an offense that looks like the Hobart offenses we’ve become used to seeing. Last year’s team was an outlier, finishing the shortened season with a 44.4% efficiency rating. This year, it’s just 29.1%, which is the lowest they’ve had since 2018. They are still the 2nd rated offense in the NEC, but at 29th nationally, it’s not what we are using to seeing. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
96th
Total EGA
71st
Faceoff EGA
82nd
Excess Goals
0th
Shooting Percentage
0th
Faceoff Win%
90th
Faceoff Elo
95th
Play Shares
97th
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
0
0
0 (0)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
12
20
71%
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
0
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
96th
Total EGA
71st
Faceoff EGA
82nd
Excess Goals
0th
Shooting Percentage
0th
Faceoff Win%
90th
Faceoff Elo
95th
Play Shares
97th
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#10 – Zack Hochman (UMass) – 5.76 goals added
Mar 14 vs Fairfield Opp ELO: 1377
The whole in all my charts and tables has finally been filled. UMass is the last D1 MLAX team to get on the field this year. We’ll give the Minutemen some time before we dive into their stats too much, but suffice to say that Hochman picked up where he left off last year.
Frankie Labetti is the 11th rated FOGO this year, so for Hochman to come in and win 12 of 21 in his first game is all the more impressive. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
98th
Total EGA
78th
Faceoff EGA
85th
Excess Goals
38th
Shooting Percentage
41st
Faceoff Win%
87th
Faceoff Elo
93rd
Play Shares
99th
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
1
0
2 (1)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
12
12
57%
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
0
0
1
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
98th
Total EGA
78th
Faceoff EGA
85th
Excess Goals
38th
Shooting Percentage
41st
Faceoff Win%
87th
Faceoff Elo
93rd
Play Shares
99th
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