Top Individual Performances (Week 4 MLAX)
Each week, we will look back at the games that were to see which players had the largest individual performances. I say largest because the contributions that we can measure (from play by play) tend to be things that are easy to count. This includes, goals, shots, assists, turnovers, penalties, etc. We can’t measure a defender who shuts down an opposing player so completely that he doesn’t even touch the ball. Still, it is interesting to be able to identify the players that really filled it up each weekend and give them a shout out here. | |
For a bit of background, in order to rank single game performances, we needed a way to condense box score stats to a single number for each player. In order to do this, we relied on our expected goal values methodology, which assigns a goal value to each type of play depending on how often it leads to a goal in the next 60 seconds. By adding up all the expected goals added for each player, we can get to that single number and these rankings. | |
We have also tagged each performance with the opponent’s ELO rating. The higher the number, the stronger the opponent. This should help to give some context for each performance. Did the player feast on the dregs of D1 or did they put up these numbers against a quality opponent? | |
A quick note: whenever you see the PRO logo (![]() ![]() |
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Top Single Game Scores of the week |
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#1 – James Reilly (Georgetown) – 8.25 goals added
Mar 6 vs Marquette Opp ELO: 1466
Marquette hung around with Georgetown, taking an 8-8 tie into half. For the first 30 minutes, it was one of the more surprising performances of the weekend. After 1 period, part of the Golden Eagles success was down to the fact that they were neck and neck with Georgetown in possessions (10 to 11). With the offense clicking at 44% in the first two periods and a not-insurmountable possession situation, Marquette was able to make it a game.
Then James Reilly imposed his will. For the final 3 quarters, Georgetown won 89%, 91%, and 86% of the faceoffs. In total, the Hoyas ended with a +17 possession margin (equaling their best outing again STJ). We’ll see how it all shakes out once the full slate of games is played, but as of Saturday night, Reilly had jumped up to the No 2. slot in the faceoff Elo ratings. He was that good against Marquette. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
97th
Total EGA
94th
Faceoff EGA
95th
Excess Goals
96th
Shooting Percentage
92nd
Faceoff Win%
84th
Faceoff Elo
99th
Play Shares
95th
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
0
1
3 (2)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
16
26
86%
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
0
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
97th
Total EGA
94th
Faceoff EGA
95th
Excess Goals
96th
Shooting Percentage
92nd
Faceoff Win%
84th
Faceoff Elo
99th
Play Shares
95th
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#2 – Chris Gray (North Carolina) – 7.94 goals added
Mar 6 vs Mercer Opp ELO: 1290
I continue to be impressed with the degree to which Chris Gray has cut out turnovers this year. As a team, the Heels are actually shooting 2.7 percentage points worse than last year, but their offensive efficiency is up 0.4 percentage points. Can you guess why? They have turned it over on 24.9% of their possessions compared to 28.4% last year.
For Gray specifically, the trend is even more pronounced. He has cut his share-adjusted turnover rate from .59 last year to just .22 this year. So even as his shooting percentage has fallen a bit, his productivity has ticked up because, again, fewer turnovers. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
99th
Total EGA
99th
Offensive EGA
99th
Excess Goals
1st
eGoals/Shot
66th
Shooting Percentage
65th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
40th
Play Shares
99th
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
6
4
12 (8)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
0
0
N/A
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
1
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
99th
Total EGA
99th
Offensive EGA
99th
Excess Goals
1st
eGoals/Shot
66th
Shooting Percentage
65th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
40th
Play Shares
99th
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#3 – Tommy Sopko (Bucknell) – 7.15 goals added
Mar 7 vs Cleveland State Opp ELO: 1422
The top performance of the MLAX Sunday slate came courtesy of Bucknell’s Tommy Sopko. It’s been a long wait to see the Bison in action, and they did not disappoint. The Vikings are now the 34th best opponent-adjusted defense, even after this game. So this was not simply a case of taking advantage of a weak D.
The departure of Will Yorke (transferred to Notre Dame because of Bucknell grad year restrictions), seems to have opened a door for Sopko. I suspect he won’t maintain this pace all year, but this game gives a glimpse of what a higher usage Tommy Sopko looks like. It’s good news for the Bison. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
91st
Total EGA
93rd
Offensive EGA
95th
Excess Goals
8th
eGoals/Shot
69th
Shooting Percentage
75th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
69th
Play Shares
93rd
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
7
2
13 (9)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
0
0
N/A
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
0
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
91st
Total EGA
93rd
Offensive EGA
95th
Excess Goals
8th
eGoals/Shot
69th
Shooting Percentage
75th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
69th
Play Shares
93rd
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#4 – Nick Rowlett (Michigan) – 7.12 goals added
Mar 6 vs Rutgers Opp ELO: 1656
Probably the most surprising performance of the week. As a whole, Michigan couldn’t hold up against the Rutgers onslaught, but Rowlett did. Coming into this game, Rutgers had shown a pretty impressive leap in FO performance this year, largely thanks to the St. John’s transfer Dugenio. On the flip side, Michigan had been lackluster against both JHU and Maryland at the faceoff x. When you adjust for opposing FOGO strength, their first two games gave us adjusted win rates of roughly 58%.
Then Nick Rowlett goes and throws up an adjusted 63.2% performance against the Scarlet Knights. So far this year, the Michigan FO unit is clicking at an adjusted 60.8% rate, good for 13th nationally. To put in mildly, that is the best they’ve been in a long time. It’s going to take several jumps for the Wolverines to become truly competitive in the B1G landscape, but since they’ve got possibly 3 more years with Rowlett, they may have their FO jump taken care of. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
97th
Total EGA
79th
Faceoff EGA
86th
Excess Goals
71st
Shooting Percentage
78th
Faceoff Win%
82nd
Faceoff Elo
97th
Play Shares
98th
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
0
0
1 (1)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
16
25
65%
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
2
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
97th
Total EGA
79th
Faceoff EGA
86th
Excess Goals
71st
Shooting Percentage
78th
Faceoff Win%
82nd
Faceoff Elo
97th
Play Shares
98th
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#5 – Tye Kurtz (Delaware) – 7.09 goals added
Mar 6 vs Fairfield Opp ELO: 1411
Tye Kurtz accounted for 11 of the 17 goals that Delaware put up against Fairfield (6A and 5G). It was also his highest usage game this year, as he accounted for 12.1% of the Blue Hens’ plays after just 4.8% against SJU and 8.1% against Bellarmine (after missing the team’s 1st two games).
And this was on a day when a whopping 82% of the team’s goals were assisted, so the offense was a group affair on this day. For his part, Kurtz success this year has come from a much better shooting mark. Last year, in 6 games, his shooting ended up costing the Blue Hens nearly 3 goals compared to a league-average shooter (-.08 eG/shot on 36 shots). This year, he’s been a net positive shooter (.06 eG/shot on 22 shots). That helps explain how the Blue Hens, as a team, as having their first net positive eG season since 2015. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
96th
Total EGA
90th
Offensive EGA
91st
Excess Goals
87th
eGoals/Shot
87th
Shooting Percentage
88th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
82nd
Play Shares
96th
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
5
6
11 (9)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
3
0
N/A
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
2
0
1
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
96th
Total EGA
90th
Offensive EGA
91st
Excess Goals
87th
eGoals/Shot
87th
Shooting Percentage
88th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
82nd
Play Shares
96th
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#6 – Ryan Smith (Robert Morris) – 6.64 goals added
Mar 2 vs Bellarmine Opp ELO: 1303
Possessions are not destiny, but so far for RMU, they are. In 2 wins, they’ve had a +7 and +8 possession advantage. In 3 losses, they’ve been -14, -8 and -10.
Regardless, in this one, Ryan Smith took advantage. He scored or assisted 11 or the Colonials’ 17 goals. It was his highest usage game so far (10.8% play share). So far in 2021, Smith has not had to carry the offense like he did last year (12.2% weighted play share vs 16.3% last year. Without the full role on his back, he’s been able to shoot significantly better. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
92nd
Total EGA
98th
Offensive EGA
99th
Excess Goals
2nd
eGoals/Shot
68th
Shooting Percentage
68th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
54th
Play Shares
90th
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
5
6
8 (7)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
4
0
N/A
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
1
1
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
92nd
Total EGA
98th
Offensive EGA
99th
Excess Goals
2nd
eGoals/Shot
68th
Shooting Percentage
68th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
54th
Play Shares
90th
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#7 – Tommy Burke (Vermont) – 6.54 goals added
Mar 6 vs Syracuse Opp ELO: 1718
This was a closer game than maybe some people thought it would be. Thank Tommy Burke for that. He won 24 of 34 faceoffs and the Catamounts ended the day with a +6 possession advantage.
That sort of edge wasn’t going to overcome a 14% efficiency margin, but when you are an underdog, you usually need a few things to go right. Burke gave them one of the edges they needed. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
94th
Total EGA
67th
Faceoff EGA
78th
Excess Goals
38th
Shooting Percentage
31st
Faceoff Win%
86th
Faceoff Elo
99th
Play Shares
91st
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
0
0
2 (2)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
12
24
70%
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
0
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
94th
Total EGA
67th
Faceoff EGA
78th
Excess Goals
38th
Shooting Percentage
31st
Faceoff Win%
86th
Faceoff Elo
99th
Play Shares
91st
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#8 – TJ Malone (Penn State) – 6.47 goals added
Mar 6 vs Ohio State Opp ELO: 1628
Look, was PSU better on offense against the Buckeyes than in their first two games? Sure. The raw numbers suggest as much (33.3% offensive efficiency vs 13.7% and 24.3%). And it’s been their shooting numbers that really tell the story (34.9% shooting vs OSU compared to 19% against MD and 23% against RU).
But let’s not get carried away here. The strength of the opposing defenses tells the story just as well as a true change in the Nittany Lions performance. As of this morning, Maryland is the #2 rated defense on an opponent-adjusted basis. Rutgers is 8th. Ohio State is…44th. Still TJ Malone was impressive in this one. It was his lowest usage game of the year (other teammates were much more active in this one), but easily his most productive. I think that is the story of the PSU offense this year. Malone was billed by some as the heir-apparent to Grant Ament, but when he’s asked to do more, he runs the risk of making himself less effective. Here is his career assist share (the percentage of PSU assists, he had): And here is his shooting percentage in those same seasons. It makes some sense to say that Malone is going to be a better off-ball option for PSU until he can figure out a way to be as productive a shooter when the offense he’s trying to generate as an initiator doesn’t work out. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
91st
Total EGA
88th
Offensive EGA
91st
Excess Goals
35th
eGoals/Shot
83rd
Shooting Percentage
83rd
Shot-on-Goal Rate
72nd
Play Shares
91st
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
5
2
12 (8)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
0
0
N/A
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
0
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
91st
Total EGA
88th
Offensive EGA
91st
Excess Goals
35th
eGoals/Shot
83rd
Shooting Percentage
83rd
Shot-on-Goal Rate
72nd
Play Shares
91st
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#9 – Ryan Archer (Hobart) – 6.42 goals added
Mar 6 vs Mount St Marys Opp ELO: 1351
Ryan Archer was the offensive star in the opener for Hobart. You can see the holes in their offense given the departures from last season, but this was still a potent unit against St Marys. The problem is that Archer basically doubled his play share figure from last season (16.4% weighted play share in this one vs 9.8% last year).
That alone isn’t necessarily a bad thing, but any team that is forced to give one guy so much usage runs into trouble when opposing defenses figure out how to limit said guy. Now that said, MSM is the 2nd best defense (21st on an opp-adjusted basis) they are likely to face this year (Bryant checks in at 18th). So it’s very possible that this formula can carry them through in the NEC this year. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
89th
Total EGA
91st
Offensive EGA
93rd
Excess Goals
2nd
eGoals/Shot
42nd
Shooting Percentage
51st
Shot-on-Goal Rate
58th
Play Shares
95th
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
4
3
11 (6)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
3
0
N/A
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
1
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
89th
Total EGA
91st
Offensive EGA
93rd
Excess Goals
2nd
eGoals/Shot
42nd
Shooting Percentage
51st
Shot-on-Goal Rate
58th
Play Shares
95th
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#10 – Adam Charalambides (Rutgers) – 6.20 goals added
Mar 6 vs Michigan Opp ELO: 1427
It’s always fun to look at Charalambides’ career trends.
Here are his career EGA/gm averages, by season Do you even remember what life was like in 2016 at this point? Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
98th
Total EGA
98th
Offensive EGA
98th
Excess Goals
14th
eGoals/Shot
81st
Shooting Percentage
79th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
53rd
Play Shares
97th
Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
4
5
8 (6)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
1
0
N/A
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
1
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
98th
Total EGA
98th
Offensive EGA
98th
Excess Goals
14th
eGoals/Shot
81st
Shooting Percentage
79th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
53rd
Play Shares
97th
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March 8, 2021 @ 4:24 pm
Note that one reason Will Yorke “transferred” to Notre Dame is that he had graduated from Bucknell, and Bucknell normally does not allow 5th year players, no matter how good they are.
March 8, 2021 @ 4:56 pm
Great point, I updated the Sopko section to reflect the fact that Yorke didn’t have the option to return to Bucknell.