Top Individual Performances (Week 3 WLAX)
Each week, we will look back at the games that were to see which players had the largest individual performances. I say largest because the contributions that we can measure (from play by play) tend to be things that are easy to count. This includes, goals, shots, assists, turnovers, penalties, etc. We can’t measure a defender who shuts down an opposing player so completely that she doesn’t even touch the ball. Still, it is interesting to be able to identify the players that really filled it up each weekend and give them a shout out here. | |
For a bit of background, in order to rank single game performances, we needed a way to condense box score stats to a single number for each player. In order to do this, we relied on our expected goal values methodology, which assigns a goal value to each type of play depending on how often it leads to a goal in the next 60 seconds. By adding up all the expected goals added for each player, we can get to that single number and these rankings. | |
We have also tagged each performance with the opponent’s ELO rating. The higher the number, the stronger the opponent. This should help to give some context for each performance. Did the player feast on the dregs of D1 or did they put up these numbers against a quality opponent? | |
Top Single Game Scores of the week |
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#1 – Belle Martire (William and Mary) – 10.43 goals added
Feb 24 vs Old Dominion Opp ELO: 1159
On Tuesday, Charlotte North (see below) set the 2021 high watermark for EGA. It took one day for Belle Martire to snatch that crown away from her.
I’m not sure of the backstory here, but Martire’s game against ODU couldn’t have been more different than her results from W&M’s first game against Duke. In that one, she managed to get off not a single shot. In this one, she took 12. This is the largest EGA jump any player has made from week 1 to week 2. Her 2020 season suggests that we should expect more games like this one from Martire going forward. Seems like Duke was an aberration. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
98th
Total EGA
87th
Offensive EGA
88th
Excess Goals
98th
eGoals/Shot
88th
Shooting Percentage
87th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
61st
Play Shares
91st
Goals
Assists
Shots
8
2
12
GBs
Draw Controls
SOG
3
1
9
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
2
1
1
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
98th
Total EGA
87th
Offensive EGA
88th
Excess Goals
98th
eGoals/Shot
88th
Shooting Percentage
87th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
61st
Play Shares
91st
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#2 – Karson Harris (Drexel) – 10.18 goals added
Feb 27 vs Georgetown Opp ELO: 1672
Karson Harris making another appearance. This time with a very productive performance against the Hoyas.
Harris is a great example of how increased production can be addition by subtraction. She is shooting just as well as she did last year, but so far, through 3 games, her turnover rate is half of what it was last year. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
99th
Total EGA
98th
Offensive EGA
96th
Excess Goals
38th
eGoals/Shot
80th
Shooting Percentage
81st
Shot-on-Goal Rate
65th
Play Shares
99th
Goals
Assists
Shots
6
1
15
GBs
Draw Controls
SOG
2
9
12
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
1
0
2
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
99th
Total EGA
98th
Offensive EGA
96th
Excess Goals
38th
eGoals/Shot
80th
Shooting Percentage
81st
Shot-on-Goal Rate
65th
Play Shares
99th
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#3 – Charlotte North (Boston College) – 9.44 goals added
Feb 23 vs Albany Opp ELO: 1756
At halftime of this game, Charlotte North had 7.39 total EGA. Last week’s top EGA game came from Talen Francis, who accumulated 7.72 EGA in an entire game. Yes, Charlotte North nearly eclipsed last week’s top game in 30 minutes.
The Eagles got off to a hot start against Albany, but we’ll have to wait and see whether North is able to get off 11 shots per game against the ACC slate they are going to face. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
99th
Total EGA
99th
Offensive EGA
99th
Excess Goals
99th
eGoals/Shot
86th
Shooting Percentage
86th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
58th
Play Shares
98th
Goals
Assists
Shots
8
1
11
GBs
Draw Controls
SOG
2
6
10
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
2
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
99th
Total EGA
99th
Offensive EGA
99th
Excess Goals
99th
eGoals/Shot
86th
Shooting Percentage
86th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
58th
Play Shares
98th
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#4 – Ali Baiocco (Stanford) – 9.41 goals added
Feb 28 vs UC Davis Opp ELO: 1553
And Stanford makes its first appearance on the EGA list!
Baiocco’s highest shooting percentage for a full season came in 2019 (45.2%). Unlikely she’ll stay in the 70% range this year, but if she can be go from 45% to mayb4 48% or 50%, that would be a huge boost for Stanford given that she has a high percentage of the team’s plays. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
96th
Total EGA
96th
Offensive EGA
97th
Excess Goals
8th
eGoals/Shot
66th
Shooting Percentage
63rd
Shot-on-Goal Rate
60th
Play Shares
92nd
Goals
Assists
Shots
8
1
11
GBs
Draw Controls
SOG
3
0
9
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
0
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
96th
Total EGA
96th
Offensive EGA
97th
Excess Goals
8th
eGoals/Shot
66th
Shooting Percentage
63rd
Shot-on-Goal Rate
60th
Play Shares
92nd
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#5 – Izzy Scane (Northwestern) – 8.37 goals added
Feb 28 vs Johns Hopkins Opp ELO: 1586
One of the interesting things about this season is the doubleheaders that we are seeing in WLAX. The men are going to have regular season rematches, but the women are literally playing two games against the same team 2 days apart.
Northwestern seems to have taken advantage of the redo against Hopkins. The Wildcats offense was 5 percentage points better in the 2nd game. Same goes for Scane. She shot 33% in the first game and 46.7% on her way to a 7-goal performance. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
99th
Total EGA
95th
Offensive EGA
96th
Excess Goals
99th
eGoals/Shot
89th
Shooting Percentage
89th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
64th
Play Shares
97th
Goals
Assists
Shots
7
0
15
GBs
Draw Controls
SOG
1
0
9
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
0
0
0
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
99th
Total EGA
95th
Offensive EGA
96th
Excess Goals
99th
eGoals/Shot
89th
Shooting Percentage
89th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
64th
Play Shares
97th
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#6 – Erin Kerstetter (Wagner) – 8.09 goals added
Feb 23 vs Villanova Opp ELO: 1459
This game is up there for game of the year so far. Wagner and Villanova went blow for blow for 60 minutes, with neither team being able to build much of a lead. The win probability chart below tells the story better than words can. It looks like an EKG monitor read-out.
For her part, Kerstetter was a big part of Wagner sticking with Nova until the end. She finished with just 1 turnover, against a 6.3% weighted play share. That works out to an individual turnover rate of just .17. Last year, her turnover rate was .82. I’m not sure of the backstory here, but her role this year seems to have exploded compared with her prior 2 seasons. Given her efficiency, that is great news for Wagner. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
99th
Total EGA
59th
Offensive EGA
57th
Excess Goals
85th
eGoals/Shot
84th
Shooting Percentage
83rd
Shot-on-Goal Rate
74th
Play Shares
71st
Goals
Assists
Shots
6
1
9
GBs
Draw Controls
SOG
1
9
7
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
1
5
1
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
99th
Total EGA
59th
Offensive EGA
57th
Excess Goals
85th
eGoals/Shot
84th
Shooting Percentage
83rd
Shot-on-Goal Rate
74th
Play Shares
71st
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#7 – Hannah Leubecker (Maryland) – 7.85 goals added
Feb 26 vs Michigan Opp ELO: 1770
I think Michigan may have put a circle around Leubecker’s name in the scouting report for their 2nd of 2 games against the Terps this week. In the first match-up on Friday, Leubecker scored 7 goals on 9 shots and had just 1 TO en route to the 7.85 EGA that landed her on this list.
In the 2nd game, she turned it over 5 times and got off just 5 shots. I’m not enough of a tactical expert to be able to recognize what Michigan did differently, but it had a big impact. In the first game, MD, as a team, scored on 45% of their possessions. In game 2, it was just 24%. Oddly, the 2nd game was played much faster than the first; Maryland’s average possession lasted 46.2 seconds in the first game and 28.9 seconds in the 2nd game. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
90th
Total EGA
57th
Offensive EGA
60th
Excess Goals
57th
eGoals/Shot
74th
Shooting Percentage
72nd
Shot-on-Goal Rate
26th
Play Shares
78th
Goals
Assists
Shots
7
0
9
GBs
Draw Controls
SOG
1
2
8
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
1
0
2
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
90th
Total EGA
57th
Offensive EGA
60th
Excess Goals
57th
eGoals/Shot
74th
Shooting Percentage
72nd
Shot-on-Goal Rate
26th
Play Shares
78th
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#8 – Karson Harris (Drexel) – 7.81 goals added
Feb 24 vs Saint Joseph’s Opp ELO: 1650
2 games, 2 times on the top individual EGA list, just four days apart. But while the top line number (7.81 EGA in this one vs 7.00 against Lehigh) suggest a similar story, the profile of her contribution in this one was quite different. In her last game, it was a story of precision; in this one it was more about volume and frenetic energy.
In her last game, she scored 6 goals on 6 shots and had 2 GBs to go with 3 turnovers. This was an arguably more well-rounded performance, as she added an assist, 6 GBs and just 1 TO against a much more highly rated defense in St Joe’s. St Joe’s is the 19th ranked opponent-adjusted defense in WLAX; Lehigh is 59th. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
99th
Total EGA
98th
Offensive EGA
96th
Excess Goals
38th
eGoals/Shot
80th
Shooting Percentage
81st
Shot-on-Goal Rate
65th
Play Shares
99th
Goals
Assists
Shots
5
1
10
GBs
Draw Controls
SOG
6
6
9
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
1
4
1
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
99th
Total EGA
98th
Offensive EGA
96th
Excess Goals
38th
eGoals/Shot
80th
Shooting Percentage
81st
Shot-on-Goal Rate
65th
Play Shares
99th
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#9 – Talen Francis (Gardner-Webb) – 7.77 goals added
Feb 26 vs Akron Opp ELO: 1233
2 games, 2 spots on the top EGA list for Talen Francis. Different game against Akron though. In her first game, she had 4 goals and 4 assists; in this one, 5 goals and 0 assists. But sometimes, what the team needs is someone to just go get goals, and that’s the role she played in this one.
The Akron D is much better than Wofford (33rd on an opponent-adjusted basis vs 76th for Wofford), and it showed in the way they were able to limit assists for the Bulldogs. GWU assisted on 42% of their goals against Wofford and just 19% against Akron. In that sort of situation, a team needs a player who can make their own offense. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
96th
Total EGA
96th
Offensive EGA
95th
Excess Goals
16th
eGoals/Shot
71st
Shooting Percentage
65th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
48th
Play Shares
98th
Goals
Assists
Shots
5
0
5
GBs
Draw Controls
SOG
3
9
5
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
2
0
2
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
96th
Total EGA
96th
Offensive EGA
95th
Excess Goals
16th
eGoals/Shot
71st
Shooting Percentage
65th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
48th
Play Shares
98th
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#10 – Katie Comerford (Villanova) – 7.66 goals added
Feb 23 vs Wagner Opp ELO: 1612
You saw the graphic above, but this game was bonkers. 10 points for Katie Comerford came primarily from her 7 assists. Last year, she averaged just .75 assists per game and over 5 shots. It will be interesting to see if that part of her game continues to be a force this year.
This is an offense that relies on assists (60% of goals were assisted last year). Offenses that rely on assists can be turnover prone, but so far, Comerford has yet to commit a turnover. If that continues, the Wildcats may be able to keep up the offensive efficiency mark they’ve set so far (30.9%), which would be their highest since at least 2015. Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
91st
Total EGA
96th
Offensive EGA
97th
Excess Goals
14th
eGoals/Shot
72nd
Shooting Percentage
64th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
36th
Play Shares
93rd
Goals
Assists
Shots
3
7
7
GBs
Draw Controls
SOG
2
0
4
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
0
1
1
Career Stat
Percentile
EGA/game
91st
Total EGA
96th
Offensive EGA
97th
Excess Goals
14th
eGoals/Shot
72nd
Shooting Percentage
64th
Shot-on-Goal Rate
36th
Play Shares
93rd
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