Top Individual Performances (Week 2 WLAX)
Each week, we will look back at the games that were to see which players had the largest individual performances. I say largest because the contributions that we can measure (from play by play) tend to be things that are easy to count. This includes, goals, shots, assists, turnovers, penalties, etc. We can’t measure a defender who shuts down an opposing player so completely that she doesn’t even touch the ball. Still, it is interesting to be able to identify the players that really filled it up each weekend and give them a shout out here. | |
For a bit of background, in order to rank single game performances, we needed a way to condense box score stats to a single number for each player. In order to do this, we relied on our expected goal values methodology, which assigns a goal value to each type of play depending on how often it leads to a goal in the next 60 seconds. By adding up all the expected goals added for each player, we can get to that single number and these rankings. | |
We have also tagged each performance with the opponent’s ELO rating. The higher the number, the stronger the opponent. This should help to give some context for each performance. Did the player feast on the dregs of D1 or did they put up these numbers against a quality opponent? | |
Top Single Game Scores of the week |
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#1 – Talen Francis (Gardner-Webb) – 7.72 goals added
Feb 22 vs Wofford Opp ELO: 870
Our top EGA player just snuck her game in under the cutoff yesterday afternoon against Wofford. Francis set or tied career highs for both EGA and points.
We’ll have to wait and see if this game is a sign of things to come. GW was very Francis-heavy in this game. She accounted for a full 15% of the Bulldogs play shares (her weighted percentage was 20.4% which discounts things like draws). Goals
Assists
Shots
4
4
8
GBs
Draw Controls
SOG
6
2
5
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
3
0
4
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#2 – Liza Hernandez (Ohio State) – 7.64 goals added
Feb 21 vs Michigan Opp ELO: 1809
The Buckeyes did well to brush themselves off after the opening game against the wood-chipper that is Northwestern. They leveled off their record with the win over Michigan and Hernandez’s 7 points nearly made up half the team’s total.
As with many of these early season statistical oddities, this one likely won’t last, but one thing that stands out for Hernandez so far is her shooting. She’s scored 10 goals on just 14 shots, every one of which was on goal. It’s good news for an offense when your top share offensive player is shooting lights out. Goals
Assists
Shots
6
1
9
GBs
Draw Controls
SOG
1
10
9
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
3
2
0
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#3 – Cassidy Spilis (Rutgers) – 7.48 goals added
Feb 21 vs Johns Hopkins Opp ELO: 1697
2 weeks, 2 times on the weekly EGA list for Spilis. Interestingly, given the pace of the game, the Rutgers offense actually had fewer chances (44 possessions) against Hopkins than they did against PSU (53).
Think of it this way, against PSU, Spilis put up a point roughly once for every 10 RU possessions. Against JHU, it was more like one point for every 6 Scarlet Knights possessions. These EGA lists are not pace-adjusted, so teams who play faster tend to land more players on them. The fact that Spilis earned the #3 spot in a fairly slow-paced game make it all the more impressive. Goals
Assists
Shots
7
1
7
GBs
Draw Controls
SOG
1
4
7
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
2
1
1
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#4 – Sam Rippley (Davidson) – 7.48 goals added
Feb 19 vs East Carolina Opp ELO: 1276
Welcome to the chat Sam Rippley.
Rippley took more shots, had more shots on goal, scored more points, had more GBs and put up more total EGA against ECU than she did combined in the team’s first two games. Her raw play-share in this one was 15.2% after being just 8.6% and 3.5% in the team’s first two games. An interesting note on the Wildcats’ offense. Against Duke, they faced a -14 possession margin after winning just 31% of the draws. In that game, they also played at their slowest pace of the year (46.5s per possession). They’ve sped up since then, clocking an average possession of just 33.1 seconds against ECU. Goals
Assists
Shots
5
1
9
GBs
Draw Controls
SOG
5
4
7
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
4
1
1
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#5 – C Adams (Arizona State) – 7.21 goals added
Feb 21 vs San Diego State Opp ELO: 1514
Carley Adams opened her season with a bang. You wouldn’t be wrong to describe her as “contributor” for the Sun Devils’ offense last year. Here 2020 season came with a middling 7.5% (weighted) share of the total contributions for ASU.
Different year, different story against SDSU. Adams weighted play share in this one was 14.7%, nearly doubling her average last year. She also took 12 shots after averaging just 3.5 per game last year. Sometimes, you’ll see a player’s turnover rate increase when they take on a heavier load. Usually, the best you can hope for is that it stays flat. For Adams though (one game caveat aside), her share-adjusted turnover rate in this one was just .18 after finishing ’20 with a .53 mark. If she can keep that up, the efficiency bump that ASU saw in this one may be quite durable. Goals
Assists
Shots
8
1
12
GBs
Draw Controls
SOG
3
1
10
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
1
4
1
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#6 – Alyssa Parrella (Hofstra) – 7.20 goals added
Feb 20 vs UConn Opp ELO: 1518
Hofstra is 2-0, but it seems like they shook some rust off between the SJU and UConn games. The offense went from 27.0% efficiency against SJU to 32.1% against UConn. When you adjust for the strength of the opposing defense, the difference is even starker. Since UConn’s defense is more highly rated than SJU, the Pride’s adjusted-efficiency actually went from 27.4% in week 1 to 33.7% against UConn.
And Parrella has been a big part of that, clocking a team-leading 21.0% weighted play-share so far. One warning sign to watch for her though is her shooting. In 2020, her shooting percentage was almost exactly what you’d expect given the profile of the shots she took. She was slightly better than a league average shooter. In 2 games so far this year, she’s scored almost 2.5 goals less than you’d expect given the profile of the shots she’s taken. It may very well be early-season rust that will be falling off here shortly, but if she can get back to being roughly league-average, that’ll give this offense another boost. Goals
Assists
Shots
7
1
16
GBs
Draw Controls
SOG
1
1
12
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
2
0
1
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#7 – Sondra Dickey (Lehigh) – 7.03 goals added
Feb 20 vs Drexel Opp ELO: 1450
It wasn’t the start that Lehigh was looking for, but for the offense, it was a good day nonetheless. And for Dickey specifically, there was a lot to like about the first outing of the year. She scored 8 goals on 12 shots in this one, and it marks the continuation of a trend for her. These are her year by year shooting percentages:
’17: 37.9% And she is a great example of why we need to look at expected shooting percentages, which allow us to compare how many goals a player scores compared to an average shooter. Bottom line, the chances she’s getting haven’t improved, she’s just been successful in canning more of them. This is the number of “excess-goals” she’s scored per attempt over her Lehigh career. ’17: -.00 A player’s shooting percentage can go up simply because they are getting better chances; for Dickey, there is real evidence that she’s just increased her shooting skill over the years. Goals
Assists
Shots
8
1
12
GBs
Draw Controls
SOG
1
4
10
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
1
3
0
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#8 – Sydney Skalstad (Fresno State) – 7.02 goals added
Feb 19 vs Kent State Opp ELO: 1008
What a difference 5 days makes. Fresno State faced a serious possession deficit against UCD in their first game (-13). In this one, they righted the ship, finished +15 over Kent State.
Obviously, a lot of the credit goes to Skalstad, who won 12 draws in this one to go along with her 5 goals on 8 shots. Goals
Assists
Shots
5
0
8
GBs
Draw Controls
SOG
0
12
5
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
1
1
0
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#9 – Karson Harris (Drexel) – 7.00 goals added
Feb 20 vs Lehigh Opp ELO: 1662
Pretty clean stat line for Harris in this one. 6 shots. 6 shots on goal. 6 goals. We are officially on when-will-Karson-Harris-miss watch.
Goals
Assists
Shots
6
0
6
GBs
Draw Controls
SOG
2
9
6
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
3
2
1
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#10 – Keriann Mctavish (VCU) – 6.49 goals added
Feb 17 vs Longwood Opp ELO: 1327
Mctavish is another player who has seen a bump in her stats coming partly from a reduction in turnover rate. Her play-share-adjusted TO% in ’20 was .53, down from .71 in 2019. In 2 games so far, her share-adjusted turnover rate is just .12.
Her shots/game is up this year, in part because she’s done a better job on the ball security front. Goals
Assists
Shots
6
0
9
GBs
Draw Controls
SOG
3
1
8
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
0
1
2
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