Top Individual Performances (Week 2 MLAX)
Each week, we will look back at the games that were to see which players had the largest individual performances. I say largest because the contributions that we can measure (from play by play) tend to be things that are easy to count. This includes, goals, shots, assists, turnovers, penalties, etc. We can’t measure a defender who shuts down an opposing player so completely that he doesn’t even touch the ball. Still, it is interesting to be able to identify the players that really filled it up each weekend and give them a shout out here. | |
For a bit of background, in order to rank single game performances, we needed a way to condense box score stats to a single number for each player. In order to do this, we relied on our expected goal values methodology, which assigns a goal value to each type of play depending on how often it leads to a goal in the next 60 seconds. By adding up all the expected goals added for each player, we can get to that single number and these rankings. | |
We have also tagged each performance with the opponent’s ELO rating. The higher the number, the stronger the opponent. This should help to give some context for each performance. Did the player feast on the dregs of D1 or did they put up these numbers against a quality opponent? | |
Top Single Game Scores of the week |
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#1 – Ashton Wood (Mercer) – 7.23 goals added
Feb 20 vs Jacksonville Opp ELO: 1456
Ashton Wood continues to furnish the home he’s building in the weekly top EGA performances list. After 3 games, he’s up to a 69.3% faceoff win rate for the year, improving on last year’s 65.9% mark. He’s also playing aggressively after these faceoff wins, averaging 2 shots per game, up from .7 last year.
On a opponent-adjusted basis, he’s responsible for the #2 faceoff unit in the country so far this year. Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
1
0
3 (1)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
14
19
67%
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
1
0
0
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#2 – Asher Nolting (High Point) – 6.65 goals added
Feb 16 vs North Carolina Opp ELO: 1710
Not many players are off to as impressive a start as Nolting so far. His 5.33 EGA/game average this year, is being partly driven by the fact that he’s also has his highest individual play share at 11.8%. But outside of increased opportunity, he’s taking much greater advantage of those chances this year. He’s shooting 41.2% which is the highest mark of his career.
The aggressiveness is coming with a cost though as he’s averaging 5.5 turnovers per game so far. If the HPU offense is going to keep up their 41% offensive mark, I think it’s a trade-off Coach Torpey will take a thousand times out of a thousand. Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
4
5
8 (6)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
2
0
N/A
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
4
0
0
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#3 – Jake Carraway (Georgetown) – 6.62 goals added
Feb 21 vs Villanova Opp ELO: 1589
The Georgetown Hoyas evidently spent all offseason working themselves into a frenzy over the fact that people did…not..stop talking about their weak schedule last year.
Carraway was their top offensive player last year and he picked up right where he left off against Nova. I doubt he’ll maintain a 57.1% shooting mark all season, but who knows. The Hoyas offense assisted on 75% of their 16 goals, while scoring on 36.4% of their possessions, so I guess anything is possible. Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
8
1
14 (12)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
2
0
N/A
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
1
0
1
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#4 – Andrew Tyeryar (North Carolina) – 6.58 goals added
Feb 16 vs High Point Opp ELO: 1526
90% faceoff win rate. Going back to 2015, there have only been 43 games, including this one, where a player took at least 20 faceoffs and won at least 90% of them. Add Andrew Tyeryar to that list.
Tyeryar is now the 6th rated active FOGO in D1 MLAX according to my faceoff Elo ratings. And no one has had a bigger move up that table this year. He started the year with a basically neutral Elo rating (1508), but across 3 games and 54 faceoffs, he’s gained 175 Elo points to settle at 1687. The Elo ratings are designed to adjust to events at a moderate pace. So it’s going to want to see some more games like this before putting him into the truly elite FOGO circle. But this much we can say: no one has made as much of an impression at the FOGO position as Tyeryar. Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
1
1
1 (1)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
10
18
90%
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
0
0
0
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#5 – Matt Moore (Virginia) – 5.78 goals added
Feb 20 vs Loyola Opp ELO: 1746
Matt Moore had the top line for the Cavs in a gritty win over Loyola, and he did in by scoring, sure, but also because he picked up 4 of the 12 GBs that UVA recorded.
In 2 games so far, Moore has seen both a career high in shots / gm (11.5) and shooting percentage (34.8%). Now, he’s been a roughly average shooter (.01 excess goals / shot attempt last year) for his career, so whether an increased load for Moore translates to higher efficiency for UVA depends mostly on who those shots are being taken from. Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
5
0
14 (9)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
4
0
N/A
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
4
0
0
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#6 – Vince DAlto (Boston U) – 5.75 goals added
Feb 20 vs Merrimack Opp ELO: 1427
D’Alto put up career highs in both points and EGA in the Terriers’ win over Merrimack. This ended up being one of the more entertaining games of the weekend.
The Terriers offense suffered a pretty steep drop-off last year in Year 1 sans-Chris Gray. They went from a 29.9% efficiency mark in 2019 to just 23.4% in the shortened 2020 season. Fortunately for Boston fans, they looked much more like the 2019 team against the Warriors. Even after accounting for the opponent-adjustment, the 30.6% mark they posted against Murr-i-mack was only shifted down to 29.7%. Looking at D’Alto’s game vs his 2020 campaign gives at least one clue why. His share-adjusted TO rate was .97 last year, and the Terriers turned it over on 42.6% of their possessions. On Saturday, his share-adjusted TO rate was just .21 and the team turned it over on just 8.2% of their possessions. Makes you wonder if ball security was an area of emphasis for the coaching staff. Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
3
4
8 (3)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
2
0
N/A
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
1
0
0
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#7 – Jake Naso (Duke) – 5.60 goals added
Feb 20 vs Towson Opp ELO: 1530
At this point, it’s fair to say that Naso has won the FOGO competition for Coach Danowski. He’s taken 76 faceoffs so far, compared to just 19 and 8 for incumbents Jordan Ginder and Dan O’Connell (respectively).
His 68.4% win rate is 8th among qualifying FOGOs and he’s seen the 3rd biggest jump in his faceoff Elo rating among any player this year. On a per-game basis, the Blue Devils are enjoying a +7 possession advantage this year, up from +5.1 last year. The only game where they didn’t enjoy a possession advantage was Denver. And of course, that was the game where Naso only took one draw. In the 3 games that he’s been the primary guy, the possession advantage has been +10.3 for Duke. Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
0
0
0 (0)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
11
21
84%
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
1
0
0
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#8 – Connor Kirst (Rutgers) – 5.57 goals added
Feb 20 vs Penn State Opp ELO: 1829
New year, different jersey, different Kirst. For one thing, he set a career high in EGA and points in this one. He was, of course, one of the most highly regarded transfers in the offseason, but Kirst’s game was not one that consistently filled up the stat sheet for the Wildcats. His per game EGA averages during his Nova career were:
2017: 2.07 And as mentioned, he has never had a game with a 5.57 EGA total until yesterday. But the interesting thing about his stat line is how many of those EGA points came from assists (4). His highest per-game assist total was in 2019 (1.2/gm). He’s never been the most accurate shooter, so a shift in his game toward being a creator could be a net positive for the Knights. Regardless, he was the unquestioned leader of the offense in this one, logging a 19.7% weighted play share mark. Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
3
4
10 (6)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
3
0
N/A
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
2
0
0
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#9 – Nathan Laliberte (Bryant) – 5.56 goals added
Feb 20 vs Stony Brook Opp ELO: 1488
With 2 games played in a career, it’s easy to scoff at new career highs, but Laliberte put up a bunch yesterday: goals, shots, EGA, points, FO win rate.
So far, the 66% FO win rate for Bryant is their best mark since 2018, when they won 67.5%. They’ve always been a positive possession margin team, but the +3 mark so far this year, is their best since that season. Thank Laliberte for that. Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
1
0
1 (1)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
9
18
69%
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
0
1
0
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#10 – RJ Romeo (Providence) – 5.45 goals added
Feb 21 vs St. John’s Opp ELO: 1338
Vintage FOGO day here. in a game that Providence won 16 – 8 over St. John’s. As if that wasn’t enough, don’t forget the 11 ground balls and 20 faceoff wins.
Repeat this against a team stronger than St. John’s, and he’ll really get people talking. Goals
Assists
Shots (OG)
0
0
1 (0)
GBs
FO Won
FO Pct
11
20
74%
Turnovers
Penalties
Caused TO
2
0
0
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