Daily Digest: Mar 7, 2020Daily Digest: Mar 7, 2020
Our quantitative way to highlight the best games of a busy slate.See below for the explainer.
Game of Interest #1

Manhattan
8

NJIT
7
Tension Game Score: 51
★ ★ ★
The tension game score for this game was 51, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.
Manhattan Min. Win Probability: 16%
★ ★
The lowest win probability that Manhattan had at any point during the game was 16.5%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.
Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 15
★
The victory means a transfer of 15 Lax-ELO points from NJIT to Manhattan. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Manhattan moves from 65th to 64th nationally; NJIT goes from 74th to 74th.
Game Stars
Manhattan
Kyle Gucwa
5.35 EGA5.35
Luke Hanson
2.51 EGA2.51
Rob Johnson
1.52 EGA1.52
NJIT
Colton Johnson
2.58 EGA2.58
Eric Sherman
2.5 EGA2.5
John Tachon
1.69 EGA1.69
Game of Interest #2

Dartmouth
8

Vermont
9
Tension Game Score: 54
★ ★ ★
The tension game score for this game was 54, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.
Vermont Min. Win Probability: 21%
★ ★
The lowest win probability that Vermont had at any point during the game was 21.6%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.
Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 3
★
The victory means a transfer of 3 Lax-ELO points from Dartmouth to Vermont. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Dartmouth moves from 53rd to 52nd nationally; Vermont goes from 25th to 24th.
Game Stars
Vermont
Ben French
2.52 EGA2.52
David Closterman
2.51 EGA2.51
Tommy Burke
2.44 EGA2.44
Dartmouth
Ben Martin
3.97 EGA3.97
Matt Paul
2.45 EGA2.45
George Prince
1.87 EGA1.87
Game of Interest #3

Holy Cross
10

Lehigh
15
Tension Game Score: 106
★
The tension game score for this game was 106, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.
Lehigh Min. Win Probability: 14%
★ ★
The lowest win probability that Lehigh had at any point during the game was 14.2%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.
Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 13
★
The victory means a transfer of 13 Lax-ELO points from Holy Cross to Lehigh. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Holy Cross moves from 38th to 36th nationally; Lehigh goes from 22nd to 20th.
Game Stars
Lehigh
Andrew Pettit
4.63 EGA4.63
Tommy Schelling
4.61 EGA4.61
Andrew Eichelberger
2.75 EGA2.75
Holy Cross
Dan O’Connell
3.82 EGA3.82
Kevin Kodzis
3.64 EGA3.64
Will Spangenberg
3.16 EGA3.16
Game of Interest #4

Delaware
15

Marist
14
Tension Game Score: 88
★
The tension game score for this game was 88, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.
Delaware Min. Win Probability: 20%
★ ★
The lowest win probability that Delaware had at any point during the game was 20.3%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.
Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 17
★
The victory means a transfer of 17 Lax-ELO points from Marist to Delaware. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Delaware moves from 28th to 26th nationally; Marist goes from 36th to 35th.
Game Stars
Delaware
Charlie Kitchen
5.46 EGA5.46
Tye Kurtz
3.59 EGA3.59
Clay Miller
2.69 EGA2.69
Marist
Peyton Smith
6.03 EGA6.03
Jojo Pirreca
4.18 EGA4.18
Joe Tierney
3.23 EGA3.23
Game of Interest #5

Utah
10

Mount St Marys
11
Tension Game Score: 71
★ ★
The tension game score for this game was 71, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.
Mount St Marys Min. Win Probability: 24%
★
The lowest win probability that Mount St Marys had at any point during the game was 24.0%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.
Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 9
★
The victory means a transfer of 9 Lax-ELO points from Utah to Mount St Marys. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Utah moves from 40th to 45th nationally; Mount St Marys goes from 58th to 57th.
Game Stars
Mount St Marys
Sam Stephan
6.28 EGA6.28
Brenden Mccarthy
4.73 EGA4.73
Luke Frankeny
3.9 EGA3.9
Utah
Colin Burke
2.44 EGA2.44
James Sexton
1.78 EGA1.78
Nick Hapney
1.65 EGA1.65
When we are blessed with a day in which the slate of games numbers in the dozens, it is all but impossible to really keep track of all the goings on in D1 lacrosse. So we decided to put out a daily digest of the day that was. The idea here is to use some metrics that we can calculate for each game as a way to highlight the most meaningful or interesting matchups.
To rank games, we will be using three values:
- Tension Game Score – a measure of how tight the game was. A back-and-forth match up where neither team is able to take control is going to have a lower tension score (i.e. smaller gap between the teams).
- Min. Win Probability – the lowest win probability value that our model ascribed to the eventual winner during the course of the game. A game where the winner had to make a huge comeback is probably going to have a very low win probability (think about the moment that it seemed least likely that they’d come back).
- Lax-ELO Transfer – a measure of how much an intridual game did to make us re-assess how good a certain team was. In a game where a favorite beats the underdog by as much as we thought they would, you don’t really update your priors about how good each team is. Those games would also transfer a relatively small number of Lax-ELO points.
We will present the metrics for each game, along with a star-based indicator to tell you how common or uncommon that outcome is. For example, a game in which the winning team had a win probability in the single digits is a rare occurence and would get 3 stars in that category.
We welcome your feedback, and we hope that this helps you to distill down the craziness of a full lacrosse slate into a more digestible list of highlights.