Daily Digest: Feb 22, 2020
Daily Digest: Feb 22, 2020
Our quantitative way to highlight the best games of a busy slate. See below for the explainer.
Game of Interest #1
Cleveland State
Air Force1211LaxWP Game PageAir Force picked up a ground ball with a one-goal lead and just 84 seconds left in this one. Things didn’t look good for the Vikings just then. But the sequence wasn’t finished. A turnover and associated penalty on Air Force gave CSU a chance and they took it. The OT victory gave us one of the most intense win probability charts of the day.
Cleveland StateAir Force1211LaxWP Game PageAir Force picked up a ground ball with a one-goal lead and just 84 seconds left in this one. Things didn’t look good for the Vikings just then. But the sequence wasn’t finished. A turnover and associated penalty on Air Force gave CSU a chance and they took it. The OT victory gave us one of the most intense win probability charts of the day.The offense was the story for CSU; they came in shooting 23% on the year. Against Air Force, they managed a 32% rate.
Tension Game Score: 41★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 41, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Cleveland State Min. Win Probability: 9%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Cleveland State had at any point during the game was 9.4%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 18★The victory means a transfer of 18 Lax-ELO points from Air Force to Cleveland State. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Cleveland State moves from 51st to 47th nationally; Air Force goes from 24th to 28th.Game Stars
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Game of Interest #1Cleveland StateAir Force1211LaxWP Game PageAir Force picked up a ground ball with a one-goal lead and just 84 seconds left in this one. Things didn’t look good for the Vikings just then. But the sequence wasn’t finished. A turnover and associated penalty on Air Force gave CSU a chance and they took it. The OT victory gave us one of the most intense win probability charts of the day.
Cleveland StateAir Force1211LaxWP Game PageAir Force picked up a ground ball with a one-goal lead and just 84 seconds left in this one. Things didn’t look good for the Vikings just then. But the sequence wasn’t finished. A turnover and associated penalty on Air Force gave CSU a chance and they took it. The OT victory gave us one of the most intense win probability charts of the day.The offense was the story for CSU; they came in shooting 23% on the year. Against Air Force, they managed a 32% rate.
Tension Game Score: 41★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 41, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Cleveland State Min. Win Probability: 9%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Cleveland State had at any point during the game was 9.4%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 18★The victory means a transfer of 18 Lax-ELO points from Air Force to Cleveland State. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Cleveland State moves from 51st to 47th nationally; Air Force goes from 24th to 28th.Game of Interest #2
Bryant
Dartmouth811LaxWP Game PageDartmouth is off to a 2-0 start this year (boy that Ivy League RPI-boost is going to be high this year). The offense is still turning the ball over more than you’d like to see, but the shooting percentage this year is 36.4% vs just 23.8% last year. That is a huge difference. And it gives Dartmouth the #27 ranked offense to this point.
BryantDartmouth811LaxWP Game PageDartmouth is off to a 2-0 start this year (boy that Ivy League RPI-boost is going to be high this year). The offense is still turning the ball over more than you’d like to see, but the shooting percentage this year is 36.4% vs just 23.8% last year. That is a huge difference. And it gives Dartmouth the #27 ranked offense to this point. Couple that with a defense that is holding offenses to a 24.7% efficiency mark and you have the makings of a tough out.
Tension Game Score: 61★ ★The tension game score for this game was 61, which indicates an fairly close battle.Dartmouth Min. Win Probability: 16%★ ★The lowest win probability that Dartmouth had at any point during the game was 16.7%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 18★The victory means a transfer of 18 Lax-ELO points from Bryant to Dartmouth. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Bryant moves from 55th to 54th nationally; Dartmouth goes from 64th to 65th.Game Stars
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Game of Interest #2BryantDartmouth811LaxWP Game PageDartmouth is off to a 2-0 start this year (boy that Ivy League RPI-boost is going to be high this year). The offense is still turning the ball over more than you’d like to see, but the shooting percentage this year is 36.4% vs just 23.8% last year. That is a huge difference. And it gives Dartmouth the #27 ranked offense to this point.
BryantDartmouth811LaxWP Game PageDartmouth is off to a 2-0 start this year (boy that Ivy League RPI-boost is going to be high this year). The offense is still turning the ball over more than you’d like to see, but the shooting percentage this year is 36.4% vs just 23.8% last year. That is a huge difference. And it gives Dartmouth the #27 ranked offense to this point. Couple that with a defense that is holding offenses to a 24.7% efficiency mark and you have the makings of a tough out.
Tension Game Score: 61★ ★The tension game score for this game was 61, which indicates an fairly close battle.Dartmouth Min. Win Probability: 16%★ ★The lowest win probability that Dartmouth had at any point during the game was 16.7%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 18★The victory means a transfer of 18 Lax-ELO points from Bryant to Dartmouth. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Bryant moves from 55th to 54th nationally; Dartmouth goes from 64th to 65th.Game of Interest #3
Brown
Stony Brook1011LaxWP Game PageThis game was a slugfest. Both teams underperformed their offensive averages coming in (to be fair, it was just one game for Brown). One big stat that stood out though was the Stony Brook goalie play. The 69% save percentage in this one saved it for the Seawolves.
BrownStony Brook1011LaxWP Game PageThis game was a slugfest. Both teams underperformed their offensive averages coming in (to be fair, it was just one game for Brown). One big stat that stood out though was the Stony Brook goalie play. The 69% save percentage in this one saved it for the Seawolves.In completely meaningless but interesting trivia, this win was the only thing stopping the Ivy League from having a perfect Saturday.
Tension Game Score: 82★ ★The tension game score for this game was 82, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Stony Brook Min. Win Probability: 8%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Stony Brook had at any point during the game was 8.1%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 11★The victory means a transfer of 11 Lax-ELO points from Brown to Stony Brook. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Brown moves from 23rd to 26th nationally; Stony Brook goes from 50th to 46th.Game Stars
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Game of Interest #3BrownStony Brook1011LaxWP Game PageThis game was a slugfest. Both teams underperformed their offensive averages coming in (to be fair, it was just one game for Brown). One big stat that stood out though was the Stony Brook goalie play. The 69% save percentage in this one saved it for the Seawolves.
BrownStony Brook1011LaxWP Game PageThis game was a slugfest. Both teams underperformed their offensive averages coming in (to be fair, it was just one game for Brown). One big stat that stood out though was the Stony Brook goalie play. The 69% save percentage in this one saved it for the Seawolves.In completely meaningless but interesting trivia, this win was the only thing stopping the Ivy League from having a perfect Saturday.
Tension Game Score: 82★ ★The tension game score for this game was 82, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Stony Brook Min. Win Probability: 8%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Stony Brook had at any point during the game was 8.1%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 11★The victory means a transfer of 11 Lax-ELO points from Brown to Stony Brook. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Brown moves from 23rd to 26th nationally; Stony Brook goes from 50th to 46th.Game of Interest #4
Drexel
Albany1314LaxWP Game PageThis game was Drexel’s lo lose. The Dragons had an 85% win probability with 2:31 left before the Great Danes stormed back.
DrexelAlbany1314LaxWP Game PageThis game was Drexel’s lo lose. The Dragons had an 85% win probability with 2:31 left before the Great Danes stormed back.Vermont is the favorite in the NEC, but given the NEC representation on this list, it won’t be easy.
Tension Game Score: 55★ ★The tension game score for this game was 55, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Albany Min. Win Probability: 19%★ ★The lowest win probability that Albany had at any point during the game was 19.2%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 8★The victory means a transfer of 8 Lax-ELO points from Drexel to Albany. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Drexel moves from 37th to 39th nationally; Albany goes from 45th to 43rd.Game Stars
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Game of Interest #4DrexelAlbany1314LaxWP Game PageThis game was Drexel’s lo lose. The Dragons had an 85% win probability with 2:31 left before the Great Danes stormed back.
DrexelAlbany1314LaxWP Game PageThis game was Drexel’s lo lose. The Dragons had an 85% win probability with 2:31 left before the Great Danes stormed back.Vermont is the favorite in the NEC, but given the NEC representation on this list, it won’t be easy.
Tension Game Score: 55★ ★The tension game score for this game was 55, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Albany Min. Win Probability: 19%★ ★The lowest win probability that Albany had at any point during the game was 19.2%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 8★The victory means a transfer of 8 Lax-ELO points from Drexel to Albany. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Drexel moves from 37th to 39th nationally; Albany goes from 45th to 43rd.Game of Interest #5
Merrimack
Michigan1412LaxWP Game PageCongrats to the Warriors on their first Division 1 victory. While they are ineligible for the post-season this year, you start to get the sense that Merrimack is going to wreak havoc in the NEC.
MerrimackMichigan1412LaxWP Game PageCongrats to the Warriors on their first Division 1 victory. While they are ineligible for the post-season this year, you start to get the sense that Merrimack is going to wreak havoc in the NEC.Stats-wise, the big stat that stands out is the 62% faceoff win rate for Merrimack. This gave them a 5 possession advantage over Michigan.
Tension Game Score: 74★ ★The tension game score for this game was 74, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Merrimack Min. Win Probability: 26%★The lowest win probability that Merrimack had at any point during the game was 26.1%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 27★ ★The victory means a transfer of 27 Lax-ELO points from Michigan to Merrimack. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Merrimack moves from 53rd to 45th nationally; Michigan goes from 46th to 52nd.Game Stars
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Game of Interest #5MerrimackMichigan1412LaxWP Game PageCongrats to the Warriors on their first Division 1 victory. While they are ineligible for the post-season this year, you start to get the sense that Merrimack is going to wreak havoc in the NEC.
MerrimackMichigan1412LaxWP Game PageCongrats to the Warriors on their first Division 1 victory. While they are ineligible for the post-season this year, you start to get the sense that Merrimack is going to wreak havoc in the NEC.Stats-wise, the big stat that stands out is the 62% faceoff win rate for Merrimack. This gave them a 5 possession advantage over Michigan.
Tension Game Score: 74★ ★The tension game score for this game was 74, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Merrimack Min. Win Probability: 26%★The lowest win probability that Merrimack had at any point during the game was 26.1%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 27★ ★The victory means a transfer of 27 Lax-ELO points from Michigan to Merrimack. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Merrimack moves from 53rd to 45th nationally; Michigan goes from 46th to 52nd.When we are blessed with a day in which the slate of games numbers in the dozens, it is all but impossible to really keep track of all the goings on in D1 lacrosse. So we decided to put out a daily digest of the day that was. The idea here is to use some metrics that we can calculate for each game as a way to highlight the most meaningful or interesting matchups.
To rank games, we will be using three values:
- Tension Game Score – a measure of how tight the game was. A back-and-forth match up where neither team is able to take control is going to have a lower tension score (i.e. smaller gap between the teams).
- Min. Win Probability – the lowest win probability value that our model ascribed to the eventual winner during the course of the game. A game where the winner had to make a huge comeback is probably going to have a very low win probability (think about the moment that it seemed least likely that they’d come back).
- Lax-ELO Transfer – a measure of how much an intridual game did to make us re-assess how good a certain team was. In a game where a favorite beats the underdog by as much as we thought they would, you don’t really update your priors about how good each team is. Those games would also transfer a relatively small number of Lax-ELO points.
We will present the metrics for each game, along with a star-based indicator to tell you how common or uncommon that outcome is. For example, a game in which the winning team had a win probability in the single digits is a rare occurence and would get 3 stars in that category.
We welcome your feedback, and we hope that this helps you to distill down the craziness of a full lacrosse slate into a more digestible list of highlights.
