Our quantitative way to highlight the best games of a busy slate. See below for the explainer.
Game of Interest #1DelawareSaint Joseph’s811LaxWP Game PageSome people have been treating the SJU win as an upset along side the Villanova and Marist upsets. It was not. Delaware had a 51% chance to win at the outset. And now SJU is 2-1 with the lone loss coming against Penn State.
A big key in this one was in cage for St Joe’s. In falling behind 8-6, they got a 65% save percentage in net. Pretty good. During the 5-0 run that won the game for them, that save percentage shot up to 100%. Hard to prevent the comeback if you can’t get a single shot past the goalie. And the Delaware TO% stayed the same throughout, so I really think this was about the play in net, rather than a general tightening of the defense.
Tension Game Score: 70★ ★The tension game score for this game was 70, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Saint Joseph’s Min. Win Probability: 15%★ ★The lowest win probability that Saint Joseph’s had at any point during the game was 15.1%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 18★The victory means a transfer of 18 Lax-ELO points from Delaware to Saint Joseph’s. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Delaware moves from 23rd to 25th nationally; Saint Joseph’s goes from 33rd to 30th.Game Stars
Saint Joseph’s
Zach Cole
4.57 EGA
Shane Fable
3.14 EGA
Levi Anderson
2.72 EGA
Delaware
Charlie Kitchen
2.97 EGA
Clay Miller
2.62 EGA
Mike Robinson
1.71 EGA
Game of Interest #1DelawareSaint Joseph’s811LaxWP Game PageSome people have been treating the SJU win as an upset along side the Villanova and Marist upsets. It was not. Delaware had a 51% chance to win at the outset. And now SJU is 2-1 with the lone loss coming against Penn State.
A big key in this one was in cage for St Joe’s. In falling behind 8-6, they got a 65% save percentage in net. Pretty good. During the 5-0 run that won the game for them, that save percentage shot up to 100%. Hard to prevent the comeback if you can’t get a single shot past the goalie. And the Delaware TO% stayed the same throughout, so I really think this was about the play in net, rather than a general tightening of the defense.
Tension Game Score: 70★ ★The tension game score for this game was 70, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Saint Joseph’s Min. Win Probability: 15%★ ★The lowest win probability that Saint Joseph’s had at any point during the game was 15.1%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 18★The victory means a transfer of 18 Lax-ELO points from Delaware to Saint Joseph’s. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Delaware moves from 23rd to 25th nationally; Saint Joseph’s goes from 33rd to 30th.
Game of Interest #2MerrimackFairfield1114LaxWP Game PageMerrimack’s quest for win number one will have to wait a little longer. Fairfield’s first and fourth quarter were enough to overcome a strong middle stretch for Merrimack. Fairfield won the 1st and 4th quarters 10-2. Merrimack won the second and third quarters 9-4.
For Merrimack, it’s hard to say whether their shooters went cold or Fairfield just got hot in cage, but in the pivotal 4th quarter, the Warriors got off 12 shots (respectable) but only 5 made it to the net and only 1 went in. As a result, they couldn’t match the Stags’ run.
Tension Game Score: 79★ ★The tension game score for this game was 79, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Fairfield Min. Win Probability: 14%★ ★The lowest win probability that Fairfield had at any point during the game was 14.2%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 20★The victory means a transfer of 20 Lax-ELO points from Merrimack to Fairfield. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Merrimack moves from 48th to 52nd nationally; Fairfield goes from 63rd to 61st.Game Stars
Fairfield
Dylan Beckwith
4.41 EGA
Brian Reda
3.45 EGA
Travis Ford
3.41 EGA
Merrimack
Charlie Bertrand
5.41 EGA
Christian Thomas
2.1 EGA
Max Morrill
1.81 EGA
Game of Interest #2MerrimackFairfield1114LaxWP Game PageMerrimack’s quest for win number one will have to wait a little longer. Fairfield’s first and fourth quarter were enough to overcome a strong middle stretch for Merrimack. Fairfield won the 1st and 4th quarters 10-2. Merrimack won the second and third quarters 9-4.
For Merrimack, it’s hard to say whether their shooters went cold or Fairfield just got hot in cage, but in the pivotal 4th quarter, the Warriors got off 12 shots (respectable) but only 5 made it to the net and only 1 went in. As a result, they couldn’t match the Stags’ run.
Tension Game Score: 79★ ★The tension game score for this game was 79, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Fairfield Min. Win Probability: 14%★ ★The lowest win probability that Fairfield had at any point during the game was 14.2%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 20★The victory means a transfer of 20 Lax-ELO points from Merrimack to Fairfield. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Merrimack moves from 48th to 52nd nationally; Fairfield goes from 63rd to 61st.
Game of Interest #3BellarmineDetroit1320LaxWP Game PageMichael Sowers had 14 points for Princeton yesterday, but the top EGA stat line of the day belonged to Alex Jarzembowski. His 3 goals on 4 shots, 24 of 31 mark at the face-off X and 7 ground balls edged out the Princeton record-breaker by .04 EGA.
The whole Detroit performance was noteworthy actually, especially the final 16 minutes and 18 seconds of this game. Over that strength, UDM outscored Bellarmine 11-2. They scored on 11 of their 17 possessions (65%), turned the ball over only twice and managed a crazy 1.24 shots per possession. This was a tight one until the Titans absolutely flipped a switch.
Tension Game Score: 105★The tension game score for this game was 105, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Detroit Min. Win Probability: 12%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Detroit had at any point during the game was 12.6%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 13★The victory means a transfer of 13 Lax-ELO points from Bellarmine to Detroit. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Bellarmine moves from 61st to 63rd nationally; Detroit goes from 37th to 33rd.Game Stars
Detroit
Alex Jarzembowski
8.08 EGA
Brett Erskine
4.31 EGA
Seth Mendell
3.65 EGA
Bellarmine
Morgan Macko
6.21 EGA
Brayden Brown
2.03 EGA
Luke Legnard
2.0 EGA
Game of Interest #3BellarmineDetroit1320LaxWP Game PageMichael Sowers had 14 points for Princeton yesterday, but the top EGA stat line of the day belonged to Alex Jarzembowski. His 3 goals on 4 shots, 24 of 31 mark at the face-off X and 7 ground balls edged out the Princeton record-breaker by .04 EGA.
The whole Detroit performance was noteworthy actually, especially the final 16 minutes and 18 seconds of this game. Over that strength, UDM outscored Bellarmine 11-2. They scored on 11 of their 17 possessions (65%), turned the ball over only twice and managed a crazy 1.24 shots per possession. This was a tight one until the Titans absolutely flipped a switch.
Tension Game Score: 105★The tension game score for this game was 105, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Detroit Min. Win Probability: 12%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Detroit had at any point during the game was 12.6%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 13★The victory means a transfer of 13 Lax-ELO points from Bellarmine to Detroit. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Bellarmine moves from 61st to 63rd nationally; Detroit goes from 37th to 33rd.
Game of Interest #4Massachusetts-LowellHoly Cross1213LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 119★The tension game score for this game was 119, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Holy Cross Min. Win Probability: 21%★ ★The lowest win probability that Holy Cross had at any point during the game was 21.8%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 4★The victory means a transfer of 4 Lax-ELO points from UMass-Lowell to Holy Cross. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Massachusetts-Lowell moves from 62nd to 62nd nationally; Holy Cross goes from 34th to 33rd.Game Stars
Holy Cross
Dan O’Connell
5.95 EGA
Kevin Kodzis
4.25 EGA
Sean Mullaney
3.97 EGA
UMass-Lowell
Kyle Laforge
3.13 EGA
Jake Lining
2.74 EGA
Dakota Clark
2.61 EGA
Game of Interest #4Massachusetts-LowellHoly Cross1213LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 119★The tension game score for this game was 119, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Holy Cross Min. Win Probability: 21%★ ★The lowest win probability that Holy Cross had at any point during the game was 21.8%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 4★The victory means a transfer of 4 Lax-ELO points from UMass-Lowell to Holy Cross. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Massachusetts-Lowell moves from 62nd to 62nd nationally; Holy Cross goes from 34th to 33rd.
Game of Interest #5NavyRichmond912LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 105★The tension game score for this game was 105, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Richmond Min. Win Probability: 35%★The lowest win probability that Richmond had at any point during the game was 35.3%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 10★The victory means a transfer of 10 Lax-ELO points from Navy to Richmond. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Navy moves from 35th to 41st nationally; Richmond goes from 20th to 18th.Game Stars
Richmond
Kevin Todd
2.67 EGA
Mitch Savoca
2.45 EGA
Richie Connell
2.38 EGA
Navy
Nick Barry
3.27 EGA
Augie Fratt
1.95 EGA
Christian Daniel
1.82 EGA
Game of Interest #5NavyRichmond912LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 105★The tension game score for this game was 105, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Richmond Min. Win Probability: 35%★The lowest win probability that Richmond had at any point during the game was 35.3%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 10★The victory means a transfer of 10 Lax-ELO points from Navy to Richmond. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Navy moves from 35th to 41st nationally; Richmond goes from 20th to 18th.
When we are blessed with a day in which the slate of games numbers in the dozens, it is all but impossible to really keep track of all the goings on in D1 lacrosse. So we decided to put out a daily digest of the day that was. The idea here is to use some metrics that we can calculate for each game as a way to highlight the most meaningful or interesting matchups.
To rank games, we will be using three values:
Tension Game Score – a measure of how tight the game was. A back-and-forth match up where neither team is able to take control is going to have a lower tension score (i.e. smaller gap between the teams).
Min. Win Probability – the lowest win probability value that our model ascribed to the eventual winner during the course of the game. A game where the winner had to make a huge comeback is probably going to have a very low win probability (think about the moment that it seemed least likely that they’d come back).
Lax-ELO Transfer – a measure of how much an intridual game did to make us re-assess how good a certain team was. In a game where a favorite beats the underdog by as much as we thought they would, you don’t really update your priors about how good each team is. Those games would also transfer a relatively small number of Lax-ELO points.
We will present the metrics for each game, along with a star-based indicator to tell you how common or uncommon that outcome is. For example, a game in which the winning team had a win probability in the single digits is a rare occurence and would get 3 stars in that category.
We welcome your feedback, and we hope that this helps you to distill down the craziness of a full lacrosse slate into a more digestible list of highlights.
Delaware
Saint Joseph’s811LaxWP Game PageSome people have been treating the SJU win as an upset along side the Villanova and Marist upsets. It was not. Delaware had a 51% chance to win at the outset. And now SJU is 2-1 with the lone loss coming against Penn State.
Merrimack
Fairfield1114LaxWP Game PageMerrimack’s quest for win number one will have to wait a little longer. Fairfield’s first and fourth quarter were enough to overcome a strong middle stretch for Merrimack. Fairfield won the 1st and 4th quarters 10-2. Merrimack won the second and third quarters 9-4.
Bellarmine
Detroit1320LaxWP Game PageMichael Sowers had 14 points for Princeton yesterday, but the top EGA stat line of the day belonged to Alex Jarzembowski. His 3 goals on 4 shots, 24 of 31 mark at the face-off X and 7 ground balls edged out the Princeton record-breaker by .04 EGA. 
Massachusetts-Lowell
Holy Cross1213LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 119★The tension game score for this game was 119, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Holy Cross Min. Win Probability: 21%★ ★The lowest win probability that Holy Cross had at any point during the game was 21.8%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 4★The victory means a transfer of 4 Lax-ELO points from UMass-Lowell to Holy Cross. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Massachusetts-Lowell moves from 62nd to 62nd nationally; Holy Cross goes from 34th to 33rd.Game Stars
Navy
Richmond912LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 105★The tension game score for this game was 105, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Richmond Min. Win Probability: 35%★The lowest win probability that Richmond had at any point during the game was 35.3%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 10★The victory means a transfer of 10 Lax-ELO points from Navy to Richmond. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Navy moves from 35th to 41st nationally; Richmond goes from 20th to 18th.Game Stars
