Massachusetts
Ohio State97LaxWP Game PageThe best game of the day was part of a not-so-great day for the Big Ten. The conference went 2-3 and Maryland nearly made it 1-4 (before a huge comeback over Penn; see game #5). But you have to give credit to the Minutemen, who scored the final 5 goals of the game to eek out the victory over the Buckeyes.The key in this one was how UMass managed to shut down the OSU offense for the final 19 minutes of the game. In the 4th quarter specifically, Ohio State only managed to get a single shot on net while turning the ball over on 4 of their 7 possessions.
Tension Game Score: 49★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 49, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.UMass Min. Win Probability: 15%★ ★The lowest win probability that UMass had at any point during the game was 15.6%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 28★ ★The victory means a transfer of 28 Lax-ELO points from Ohio State to UMass. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Massachusetts moves from 26th to 25th nationally; Ohio State goes from 15th to 15th.Game Stars
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MassachusettsOhio State97LaxWP Game PageThe best game of the day was part of a not-so-great day for the Big Ten. The conference went 2-3 and Maryland nearly made it 1-4 (before a huge comeback over Penn; see game #5). But you have to give credit to the Minutemen, who scored the final 5 goals of the game to eek out the victory over the Buckeyes.The key in this one was how UMass managed to shut down the OSU offense for the final 19 minutes of the game. In the 4th quarter specifically, Ohio State only managed to get a single shot on net while turning the ball over on 4 of their 7 possessions.
Tension Game Score: 49★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 49, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.UMass Min. Win Probability: 15%★ ★The lowest win probability that UMass had at any point during the game was 15.6%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 28★ ★The victory means a transfer of 28 Lax-ELO points from Ohio State to UMass. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Massachusetts moves from 26th to 25th nationally; Ohio State goes from 15th to 15th.
Air Force
Utah98LaxWP Game PageAir Force got off to a hot start with their win over Duke. They’ve followed that up with two somewhat lackluster games; a loss to Denver and this victory over Utah. Still, a win is a win, and this was one of the top games from yesterday’s a slate.One bright spot for Air Force was the FO game, which won 40% of the contests at the faceoff X. 40% might not sound great, but against Duke, they won 30% and against Denver, it was just 26%. Air Force has some positives to build on this year and I’m sure they are happy to be 2-1 instead of 1-2.
Tension Game Score: 45★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 45, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Air Force Min. Win Probability: 17%★ ★The lowest win probability that Air Force had at any point during the game was 17.4%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 16★The victory means a transfer of 16 Lax-ELO points from Utah to Air Force. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Air Force moves from 27th to 24th nationally; Utah goes from 55th to 56th.Game Stars
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Air ForceUtah98LaxWP Game PageAir Force got off to a hot start with their win over Duke. They’ve followed that up with two somewhat lackluster games; a loss to Denver and this victory over Utah. Still, a win is a win, and this was one of the top games from yesterday’s a slate.One bright spot for Air Force was the FO game, which won 40% of the contests at the faceoff X. 40% might not sound great, but against Duke, they won 30% and against Denver, it was just 26%. Air Force has some positives to build on this year and I’m sure they are happy to be 2-1 instead of 1-2.
Tension Game Score: 45★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 45, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Air Force Min. Win Probability: 17%★ ★The lowest win probability that Air Force had at any point during the game was 17.4%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 16★The victory means a transfer of 16 Lax-ELO points from Utah to Air Force. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Air Force moves from 27th to 24th nationally; Utah goes from 55th to 56th.
Wagner
LIU98LaxWP Game PageIt looked like LIU was going to get their first win as a DI lacrosse program. They lead 8-7 after they scored a goal with 1:24 left in the 4th quarter. At the time, the model thought they were a virtual lock to win.But just 64 seconds later, Wagner got the tying goal. And just 43 seconds into the overtime period, the Seahawks had the victory. Nick Warren had the top stat line for Wagner and he was a big part of why LIU is still looking for their first win.
Tension Game Score: 87★The tension game score for this game was 87, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Wagner Min. Win Probability: 6%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Wagner had at any point during the game was 6.6%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 19★The victory means a transfer of 19 Lax-ELO points from LIU to Wagner. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Wagner moves from 70th to 69th nationally; LIU goes from 44th to 45th.Game Stars
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WagnerLIU98LaxWP Game PageIt looked like LIU was going to get their first win as a DI lacrosse program. They lead 8-7 after they scored a goal with 1:24 left in the 4th quarter. At the time, the model thought they were a virtual lock to win.But just 64 seconds later, Wagner got the tying goal. And just 43 seconds into the overtime period, the Seahawks had the victory. Nick Warren had the top stat line for Wagner and he was a big part of why LIU is still looking for their first win.
Tension Game Score: 87★The tension game score for this game was 87, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Wagner Min. Win Probability: 6%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Wagner had at any point during the game was 6.6%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 19★The victory means a transfer of 19 Lax-ELO points from LIU to Wagner. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Wagner moves from 70th to 69th nationally; LIU goes from 44th to 45th.
Drexel
High Point1516LaxWP Game PageHigh Point and Drexel did not disappoint. This game had everything. 31 goals, a tight back and forth, a pretty significant comeback at the end. If you didn’t care about the teams involved and just wanted to watch a good lacrosse game, this one had something for everyone.This was easily the best game that High Point has played so far, albeit against lesser competition than their first two games (MD and Duke). The stat that really stands out in this one is their shooting percentage (38%), which led to an offensive mark of 30.8%. It also helped that the Panthers won 63% of the FOs in this one (compared to 49% and 40% in their 2 previous games).
Tension Game Score: 75★ ★The tension game score for this game was 75, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.High Point Min. Win Probability: 12%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that High Point had at any point during the game was 12.8%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 8★The victory means a transfer of 8 Lax-ELO points from Drexel to High Point. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Drexel moves from 35th to 35th nationally; High Point goes from 40th to 38th.Game Stars
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DrexelHigh Point1516LaxWP Game PageHigh Point and Drexel did not disappoint. This game had everything. 31 goals, a tight back and forth, a pretty significant comeback at the end. If you didn’t care about the teams involved and just wanted to watch a good lacrosse game, this one had something for everyone.This was easily the best game that High Point has played so far, albeit against lesser competition than their first two games (MD and Duke). The stat that really stands out in this one is their shooting percentage (38%), which led to an offensive mark of 30.8%. It also helped that the Panthers won 63% of the FOs in this one (compared to 49% and 40% in their 2 previous games).
Tension Game Score: 75★ ★The tension game score for this game was 75, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.High Point Min. Win Probability: 12%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that High Point had at any point during the game was 12.8%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 8★The victory means a transfer of 8 Lax-ELO points from Drexel to High Point. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Drexel moves from 35th to 35th nationally; High Point goes from 40th to 38th.
Penn
Maryland1517LaxWP Game PageI will admit; after seeing the scores come in yesterday, I expected this to be the #1 game of the day. It’s a testament to what we are enjoying in D1 lacrosse that this ended up #5. We score each game on 3 categories and this game was off the charts for 1 of them. But this game didn’t surprise us very much (both Penn and Maryland are highly ranked and this game didn’t change that opinion). It also wasn’t very close for most of the second half. But it did have an amazing comeback.
And as a result, Maryland is 3-0, ranked #7 in our Lax-ELO ratings. The trend to keep an eye on: so far, the 2020 Terps have been much much faster than previous teams.
Tension Game Score: 127★The tension game score for this game was 127, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Maryland Min. Win Probability: 6%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Maryland had at any point during the game was 6.3%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 10★The victory means a transfer of 10 Lax-ELO points from Penn to Maryland. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Penn moves from 12th to 13th nationally; Maryland goes from 7th to 7th.Game Stars
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PennMaryland1517LaxWP Game PageI will admit; after seeing the scores come in yesterday, I expected this to be the #1 game of the day. It’s a testament to what we are enjoying in D1 lacrosse that this ended up #5. We score each game on 3 categories and this game was off the charts for 1 of them. But this game didn’t surprise us very much (both Penn and Maryland are highly ranked and this game didn’t change that opinion). It also wasn’t very close for most of the second half. But it did have an amazing comeback.
And as a result, Maryland is 3-0, ranked #7 in our Lax-ELO ratings. The trend to keep an eye on: so far, the 2020 Terps have been much much faster than previous teams.
Tension Game Score: 127★The tension game score for this game was 127, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Maryland Min. Win Probability: 6%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Maryland had at any point during the game was 6.3%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 10★The victory means a transfer of 10 Lax-ELO points from Penn to Maryland. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Penn moves from 12th to 13th nationally; Maryland goes from 7th to 7th.To rank games, we will be using three values:
- Tension Game Score – a measure of how tight the game was. A back-and-forth match up where neither team is able to take control is going to have a lower tension score (i.e. smaller gap between the teams).
- Min. Win Probability – the lowest win probability value that our model ascribed to the eventual winner during the course of the game. A game where the winner had to make a huge comeback is probably going to have a very low win probability (think about the moment that it seemed least likely that they’d come back).
- Lax-ELO Transfer – a measure of how much an intridual game did to make us re-assess how good a certain team was. In a game where a favorite beats the underdog by as much as we thought they would, you don’t really update your priors about how good each team is. Those games would also transfer a relatively small number of Lax-ELO points.
We will present the metrics for each game, along with a star-based indicator to tell you how common or uncommon that outcome is. For example, a game in which the winning team had a win probability in the single digits is a rare occurence and would get 3 stars in that category.
We welcome your feedback, and we hope that this helps you to distill down the craziness of a full lacrosse slate into a more digestible list of highlights.
