Daily Digest: Feb 8, 2020
Daily Digest: Feb 8, 2020
Our quantitative way to highlight the best games of a busy slate. See below for the explainer.
Game of Interest #1
Quinnipiac
Massachusetts-Lowell910LaxWP Game PageIn enjoy when the daily digest spits out a lower-tier match-up as the game of the day. And Quinnipiac and UMass-Lowell certainly earned the honor. This game, featured an out-of-this-world 6 ties, which is part of why the tension score for this one was so high. Just a really great back and forth battle where neither team was able to really take control.Tension Game Score: 46★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 46, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.UMass-Lowell Min. Win Probability: 16%★ ★The lowest win probability that UMass-Lowell had at any point during the game was 16.1%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 10★The victory means a transfer of 10 Lax-ELO points from Quinnipiac to UMass-Lowell. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Quinnipiac moves from 41st to 37th nationally; Massachusetts-Lowell goes from 57th to 56th.Game Stars
QuinnipiacMassachusetts-Lowell910LaxWP Game PageIn enjoy when the daily digest spits out a lower-tier match-up as the game of the day. And Quinnipiac and UMass-Lowell certainly earned the honor. This game, featured an out-of-this-world 6 ties, which is part of why the tension score for this one was so high. Just a really great back and forth battle where neither team was able to really take control.Tension Game Score: 46★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 46, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.UMass-Lowell Min. Win Probability: 16%★ ★The lowest win probability that UMass-Lowell had at any point during the game was 16.1%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 10★The victory means a transfer of 10 Lax-ELO points from Quinnipiac to UMass-Lowell. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Quinnipiac moves from 41st to 37th nationally; Massachusetts-Lowell goes from 57th to 56th.Game Stars
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Game of Interest #1QuinnipiacMassachusetts-Lowell910LaxWP Game PageIn enjoy when the daily digest spits out a lower-tier match-up as the game of the day. And Quinnipiac and UMass-Lowell certainly earned the honor. This game, featured an out-of-this-world 6 ties, which is part of why the tension score for this one was so high. Just a really great back and forth battle where neither team was able to really take control.Tension Game Score: 46★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 46, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.UMass-Lowell Min. Win Probability: 16%★ ★The lowest win probability that UMass-Lowell had at any point during the game was 16.1%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 10★The victory means a transfer of 10 Lax-ELO points from Quinnipiac to UMass-Lowell. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Quinnipiac moves from 41st to 37th nationally; Massachusetts-Lowell goes from 57th to 56th.
QuinnipiacMassachusetts-Lowell910LaxWP Game PageIn enjoy when the daily digest spits out a lower-tier match-up as the game of the day. And Quinnipiac and UMass-Lowell certainly earned the honor. This game, featured an out-of-this-world 6 ties, which is part of why the tension score for this one was so high. Just a really great back and forth battle where neither team was able to really take control.Tension Game Score: 46★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 46, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.UMass-Lowell Min. Win Probability: 16%★ ★The lowest win probability that UMass-Lowell had at any point during the game was 16.1%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 10★The victory means a transfer of 10 Lax-ELO points from Quinnipiac to UMass-Lowell. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Quinnipiac moves from 41st to 37th nationally; Massachusetts-Lowell goes from 57th to 56th.Game of Interest #2
Maryland
Richmond1413LaxWP Game PageThis was almost a repeat for Richmond. Come in, go to toe to toe with a Big Ten or ACC power, use smothering defense and timely scoring to pull the upset. We’ve seen it many times over the past few years. And for a team weighted down by a SoCon schedule, this would be the kind of resume padding win that could make a difference on Selection Sunday.
MarylandRichmond1413LaxWP Game PageThis was almost a repeat for Richmond. Come in, go to toe to toe with a Big Ten or ACC power, use smothering defense and timely scoring to pull the upset. We’ve seen it many times over the past few years. And for a team weighted down by a SoCon schedule, this would be the kind of resume padding win that could make a difference on Selection Sunday.But it was not to be. The Terps came storming back on the backs of 4.71 EGA from Wisnauskas, a strong game from Bernhardt, and the OT game-winner from Demaio. Strong 2-0 start for the Terps (and a partial SoCon crown to go with it).
Tension Game Score: 104★The tension game score for this game was 104, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Maryland Min. Win Probability: 2%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Maryland had at any point during the game was 2.5%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 16★The victory means a transfer of 16 Lax-ELO points from Richmond to Maryland. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Maryland moves from 9th to 10th nationally; Richmond goes from 20th to 21st.Game Stars
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Game of Interest #2MarylandRichmond1413LaxWP Game PageThis was almost a repeat for Richmond. Come in, go to toe to toe with a Big Ten or ACC power, use smothering defense and timely scoring to pull the upset. We’ve seen it many times over the past few years. And for a team weighted down by a SoCon schedule, this would be the kind of resume padding win that could make a difference on Selection Sunday.
MarylandRichmond1413LaxWP Game PageThis was almost a repeat for Richmond. Come in, go to toe to toe with a Big Ten or ACC power, use smothering defense and timely scoring to pull the upset. We’ve seen it many times over the past few years. And for a team weighted down by a SoCon schedule, this would be the kind of resume padding win that could make a difference on Selection Sunday.But it was not to be. The Terps came storming back on the backs of 4.71 EGA from Wisnauskas, a strong game from Bernhardt, and the OT game-winner from Demaio. Strong 2-0 start for the Terps (and a partial SoCon crown to go with it).
Tension Game Score: 104★The tension game score for this game was 104, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Maryland Min. Win Probability: 2%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Maryland had at any point during the game was 2.5%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 16★The victory means a transfer of 16 Lax-ELO points from Richmond to Maryland. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Maryland moves from 9th to 10th nationally; Richmond goes from 20th to 21st.Game of Interest #3
Denver
Air Force137LaxWP Game PageFor 3 quarters, it looked like Air Force might back up their win over Duke with a with over Denver in the “Battle for Colorado.” With 4 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, it was still a 5-5 tie. Then the Pioneers scored 8 of the final 10 goals to pull away.
DenverAir Force137LaxWP Game PageFor 3 quarters, it looked like Air Force might back up their win over Duke with a with over Denver in the “Battle for Colorado.” With 4 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, it was still a 5-5 tie. Then the Pioneers scored 8 of the final 10 goals to pull away. Denver started the season projected to finish 14th in the RPI standings with a schedule that ranked 18th. That is firmly in bubble territory should they not win the Big East tournament. So a win like this could go a long way toward building a tournament resume. And that is just what we have seen; in the latest simulations, Denver’s final RPI averaged 11th.
Tension Game Score: 75★ ★The tension game score for this game was 75, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Denver Min. Win Probability: 35%★The lowest win probability that Denver had at any point during the game was 36.0%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 48★ ★The victory means a transfer of 48 Lax-ELO points from Air Force to Denver. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Denver moves from 14th to 7th nationally; Air Force goes from 17th to 29th.Game Stars
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Game of Interest #3DenverAir Force137LaxWP Game PageFor 3 quarters, it looked like Air Force might back up their win over Duke with a with over Denver in the “Battle for Colorado.” With 4 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, it was still a 5-5 tie. Then the Pioneers scored 8 of the final 10 goals to pull away.
DenverAir Force137LaxWP Game PageFor 3 quarters, it looked like Air Force might back up their win over Duke with a with over Denver in the “Battle for Colorado.” With 4 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, it was still a 5-5 tie. Then the Pioneers scored 8 of the final 10 goals to pull away. Denver started the season projected to finish 14th in the RPI standings with a schedule that ranked 18th. That is firmly in bubble territory should they not win the Big East tournament. So a win like this could go a long way toward building a tournament resume. And that is just what we have seen; in the latest simulations, Denver’s final RPI averaged 11th.
Tension Game Score: 75★ ★The tension game score for this game was 75, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Denver Min. Win Probability: 35%★The lowest win probability that Denver had at any point during the game was 36.0%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 48★ ★The victory means a transfer of 48 Lax-ELO points from Air Force to Denver. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Denver moves from 14th to 7th nationally; Air Force goes from 17th to 29th.Game of Interest #4
Georgetown
Lafayette173LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 157★The tension game score for this game was 157, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Georgetown Min. Win Probability: 19%★ ★The lowest win probability that Georgetown had at any point during the game was 19.2%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 58★ ★ ★The victory means a transfer of 58 Lax-ELO points from Lafayette to Georgetown. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Georgetown moves from 11th to 5th nationally; Lafayette goes from 67th to 69th.Game Stars
GeorgetownLafayette173LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 157★The tension game score for this game was 157, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Georgetown Min. Win Probability: 19%★ ★The lowest win probability that Georgetown had at any point during the game was 19.2%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 58★ ★ ★The victory means a transfer of 58 Lax-ELO points from Lafayette to Georgetown. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Georgetown moves from 11th to 5th nationally; Lafayette goes from 67th to 69th.Game Stars
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Game of Interest #4GeorgetownLafayette173LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 157★The tension game score for this game was 157, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Georgetown Min. Win Probability: 19%★ ★The lowest win probability that Georgetown had at any point during the game was 19.2%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 58★ ★ ★The victory means a transfer of 58 Lax-ELO points from Lafayette to Georgetown. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Georgetown moves from 11th to 5th nationally; Lafayette goes from 67th to 69th.
GeorgetownLafayette173LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 157★The tension game score for this game was 157, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Georgetown Min. Win Probability: 19%★ ★The lowest win probability that Georgetown had at any point during the game was 19.2%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 58★ ★ ★The victory means a transfer of 58 Lax-ELO points from Lafayette to Georgetown. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Georgetown moves from 11th to 5th nationally; Lafayette goes from 67th to 69th.Game of Interest #5
Penn State
Villanova1910LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 135★The tension game score for this game was 135, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Penn State Min. Win Probability: 30%★The lowest win probability that Penn State had at any point during the game was 30.9%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 53★ ★ ★The victory means a transfer of 53 Lax-ELO points from Villanova to Penn State. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Penn State moves from 4th to 2nd nationally; Villanova goes from 33rd to 40th.Game Stars
Penn StateVillanova1910LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 135★The tension game score for this game was 135, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Penn State Min. Win Probability: 30%★The lowest win probability that Penn State had at any point during the game was 30.9%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 53★ ★ ★The victory means a transfer of 53 Lax-ELO points from Villanova to Penn State. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Penn State moves from 4th to 2nd nationally; Villanova goes from 33rd to 40th.Game Stars
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Game of Interest #5Penn StateVillanova1910LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 135★The tension game score for this game was 135, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Penn State Min. Win Probability: 30%★The lowest win probability that Penn State had at any point during the game was 30.9%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 53★ ★ ★The victory means a transfer of 53 Lax-ELO points from Villanova to Penn State. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Penn State moves from 4th to 2nd nationally; Villanova goes from 33rd to 40th.
Penn StateVillanova1910LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 135★The tension game score for this game was 135, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Penn State Min. Win Probability: 30%★The lowest win probability that Penn State had at any point during the game was 30.9%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 53★ ★ ★The victory means a transfer of 53 Lax-ELO points from Villanova to Penn State. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Penn State moves from 4th to 2nd nationally; Villanova goes from 33rd to 40th.When we are blessed with a day in which the slate of games numbers in the dozens, it is all but impossible to really keep track of all the goings on in D1 lacrosse. So we decided to put out a daily digest of the day that was. The idea here is to use some metrics that we can calculate for each game as a way to highlight the most meaningful or interesting matchups.
To rank games, we will be using three values:
- Tension Game Score – a measure of how tight the game was. A back-and-forth match up where neither team is able to take control is going to have a lower tension score (i.e. smaller gap between the teams).
- Min. Win Probability – the lowest win probability value that our model ascribed to the eventual winner during the course of the game. A game where the winner had to make a huge comeback is probably going to have a very low win probability (think about the moment that it seemed least likely that they’d come back).
- Lax-ELO Transfer – a measure of how much an intridual game did to make us re-assess how good a certain team was. In a game where a favorite beats the underdog by as much as we thought they would, you don’t really update your priors about how good each team is. Those games would also transfer a relatively small number of Lax-ELO points.
We will present the metrics for each game, along with a star-based indicator to tell you how common or uncommon that outcome is. For example, a game in which the winning team had a win probability in the single digits is a rare occurence and would get 3 stars in that category.
We welcome your feedback, and we hope that this helps you to distill down the craziness of a full lacrosse slate into a more digestible list of highlights.
