Detroit
Jacksonville1514LaxWP Game PageThe Detroit Titans had to be feeling pretty good when they scored with about 3 minutes left in the 3rd quarter to go up 11-10 on Jacksonville. At the time, the win probability calculations show that they had a 69% chance to move to 1-0 for the 2020 season. Then came the run. 4 straight goals for the Dolphins left Detroit’s win probability at just 4.3%. Uh-oh.
But that is not how Detroit was going to let this day end. Over the final 9 minutes, the Titans reeled off 4 goals of their own to eek out an exciting opening day victory.
It was a very even matchup as the pre-game predictor model had Jacksonville as a very slight 51% favorite. And these two did not disappoint.
Tension Game Score: 68★ ★The tension game score for this game was 68, which indicates an fairly close battle.Detroit Min. Win Probability: 4%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Detroit had at any point during the game was 4.1%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 17★The victory means a transfer of 17 Lax-ELO points from Jacksonville to Detroit. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Detroit moves from 44th to 40th nationally; Jacksonville goes from 48th to 48th.Game Stars
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DetroitJacksonville1514LaxWP Game PageThe Detroit Titans had to be feeling pretty good when they scored with about 3 minutes left in the 3rd quarter to go up 11-10 on Jacksonville. At the time, the win probability calculations show that they had a 69% chance to move to 1-0 for the 2020 season. Then came the run. 4 straight goals for the Dolphins left Detroit’s win probability at just 4.3%. Uh-oh.
But that is not how Detroit was going to let this day end. Over the final 9 minutes, the Titans reeled off 4 goals of their own to eek out an exciting opening day victory.
It was a very even matchup as the pre-game predictor model had Jacksonville as a very slight 51% favorite. And these two did not disappoint.
Tension Game Score: 68★ ★The tension game score for this game was 68, which indicates an fairly close battle.Detroit Min. Win Probability: 4%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Detroit had at any point during the game was 4.1%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 17★The victory means a transfer of 17 Lax-ELO points from Jacksonville to Detroit. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Detroit moves from 44th to 40th nationally; Jacksonville goes from 48th to 48th.
Marquette
Cleveland State1110LaxWP Game PageGreat start to the new era at Marquette. And a pretty nice way to start the season, when the first game goes to OT. Cleveland State came out hot in this one, but the Golden Eagles battled back and eventually took in in the extra frame.If there is one stat I’d look at that tells the story of the comeback, it’s turnovers. Marquette turned it over on 9 of 19 first half possessions. In the 2nd half, they only had 5 turnovers on 22 possessions. Hard to score when you aren’t getting shots because you are putting up a bunch of empty possessions.
Tension Game Score: 66★ ★The tension game score for this game was 66, which indicates an fairly close battle.Marquette Min. Win Probability: 18%★ ★The lowest win probability that Marquette had at any point during the game was 18.6%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 17★The victory means a transfer of 17 Lax-ELO points from Cleveland State to Marquette. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Marquette moves from 47th to 43rd nationally; Cleveland State goes from 42nd to 46th.Game Stars
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MarquetteCleveland State1110LaxWP Game PageGreat start to the new era at Marquette. And a pretty nice way to start the season, when the first game goes to OT. Cleveland State came out hot in this one, but the Golden Eagles battled back and eventually took in in the extra frame.If there is one stat I’d look at that tells the story of the comeback, it’s turnovers. Marquette turned it over on 9 of 19 first half possessions. In the 2nd half, they only had 5 turnovers on 22 possessions. Hard to score when you aren’t getting shots because you are putting up a bunch of empty possessions.
Tension Game Score: 66★ ★The tension game score for this game was 66, which indicates an fairly close battle.Marquette Min. Win Probability: 18%★ ★The lowest win probability that Marquette had at any point during the game was 18.6%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 17★The victory means a transfer of 17 Lax-ELO points from Cleveland State to Marquette. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Marquette moves from 47th to 43rd nationally; Cleveland State goes from 42nd to 46th.
Air Force
Duke1413LaxWP Game PageAir Force shot 54% in this one, thanks in part to putting 85% of their shots on net. I was amazed to see that sort of offensive precision for the first game of the year. If they are going to bring that precision to the rest of their slate, the Falcons are going to be a force in the SoCon.
Speaking of the SoCon, this game offsets the High Point loss to Maryland as far as the inter-conference competition for SOS.
Tension Game Score: 81★ ★The tension game score for this game was 81, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Air Force Min. Win Probability: 18%★ ★The lowest win probability that Air Force had at any point during the game was 18.4%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 17★The victory means a transfer of 17 Lax-ELO points from Duke to Air Force. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Air Force moves from 24th to 23rd nationally; Duke goes from 15th to 18th.Game Stars
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Air ForceDuke1413LaxWP Game PageAir Force shot 54% in this one, thanks in part to putting 85% of their shots on net. I was amazed to see that sort of offensive precision for the first game of the year. If they are going to bring that precision to the rest of their slate, the Falcons are going to be a force in the SoCon.
Speaking of the SoCon, this game offsets the High Point loss to Maryland as far as the inter-conference competition for SOS.
Tension Game Score: 81★ ★The tension game score for this game was 81, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Air Force Min. Win Probability: 18%★ ★The lowest win probability that Air Force had at any point during the game was 18.4%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 17★The victory means a transfer of 17 Lax-ELO points from Duke to Air Force. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Air Force moves from 24th to 23rd nationally; Duke goes from 15th to 18th.To rank games, we will be using three values:
- Tension Game Score – a measure of how tight the game was. A back-and-forth match up where neither team is able to take control is going to have a lower tension score (i.e. smaller gap between the teams).
- Min. Win Probability – the lowest win probability value that our model ascribed to the eventual winner during the course of the game. A game where the winner had to make a huge comeback is probably going to have a very low win probability (think about the moment that it seemed least likely that they’d come back).
- Lax-ELO Transfer – a measure of how much an intridual game did to make us re-assess how good a certain team was. In a game where a favorite beats the underdog by as much as we thought they would, you don’t really update your priors about how good each team is. Those games would also transfer a relatively small number of Lax-ELO points.
We will present the metrics for each game, along with a star-based indicator to tell you how common or uncommon that outcome is. For example, a game in which the winning team had a win probability in the single digits is a rare occurence and would get 3 stars in that category.
We welcome your feedback, and we hope that this helps you to distill down the craziness of a full lacrosse slate into a more digestible list of highlights.
