Then came the run. 4 straight goals for the Dolphins left Detroit’s win probability at just 4.3%. Uhoh.
But that is not how Detroit was going to let this day end. Over the final 9 minutes, the Titans reeled off 4 goals of their own to eek out an exciting opening day victory.
It was a very even matchup as the pregame predictor model had Jacksonville as a very slight 51% favorite. And these two did not disappoint. Tension Game Score: 68★ ★The tension game score for this game was 68, which indicates an fairly close battle.Detroit Min. Win Probability: 4%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Detroit had at any point during the game was 4.1%, which means that this was a “happensacoupletimesayear” type comeback.LaxELO Points Transfer: 17★The victory means a transfer of 17 LaxELO points from Jacksonville to Detroit. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Detroit moves from 44th to 40th nationally; Jacksonville goes from 48th to 48th.Game Stars


Then came the run. 4 straight goals for the Dolphins left Detroit’s win probability at just 4.3%. Uhoh.
But that is not how Detroit was going to let this day end. Over the final 9 minutes, the Titans reeled off 4 goals of their own to eek out an exciting opening day victory.
It was a very even matchup as the pregame predictor model had Jacksonville as a very slight 51% favorite. And these two did not disappoint. Tension Game Score: 68★ ★The tension game score for this game was 68, which indicates an fairly close battle.Detroit Min. Win Probability: 4%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Detroit had at any point during the game was 4.1%, which means that this was a “happensacoupletimesayear” type comeback.LaxELO Points Transfer: 17★The victory means a transfer of 17 LaxELO points from Jacksonville to Detroit. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Detroit moves from 44th to 40th nationally; Jacksonville goes from 48th to 48th.
If there is one stat I’d look at that tells the story of the comeback, it’s turnovers. Marquette turned it over on 9 of 19 first half possessions. In the 2nd half, they only had 5 turnovers on 22 possessions. Hard to score when you aren’t getting shots because you are putting up a bunch of empty possessions.Tension Game Score: 66★ ★The tension game score for this game was 66, which indicates an fairly close battle.Marquette Min. Win Probability: 18%★ ★The lowest win probability that Marquette had at any point during the game was 18.6%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.LaxELO Points Transfer: 17★The victory means a transfer of 17 LaxELO points from Cleveland State to Marquette. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Marquette moves from 47th to 43rd nationally; Cleveland State goes from 42nd to 46th.Game Stars


If there is one stat I’d look at that tells the story of the comeback, it’s turnovers. Marquette turned it over on 9 of 19 first half possessions. In the 2nd half, they only had 5 turnovers on 22 possessions. Hard to score when you aren’t getting shots because you are putting up a bunch of empty possessions.Tension Game Score: 66★ ★The tension game score for this game was 66, which indicates an fairly close battle.Marquette Min. Win Probability: 18%★ ★The lowest win probability that Marquette had at any point during the game was 18.6%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.LaxELO Points Transfer: 17★The victory means a transfer of 17 LaxELO points from Cleveland State to Marquette. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Marquette moves from 47th to 43rd nationally; Cleveland State goes from 42nd to 46th.
If they are going to bring that precision to the rest of their slate, the Falcons are going to be a force in the SoCon.
Speaking of the SoCon, this game offsets the High Point loss to Maryland as far as the interconference competition for SOS.Tension Game Score: 81★ ★The tension game score for this game was 81, which indicates a game that was more swingy than tight throughout.Air Force Min. Win Probability: 18%★ ★The lowest win probability that Air Force had at any point during the game was 18.4%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.LaxELO Points Transfer: 17★The victory means a transfer of 17 LaxELO points from Duke to Air Force. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Air Force moves from 24th to 23rd nationally; Duke goes from 15th to 18th.Game Stars


If they are going to bring that precision to the rest of their slate, the Falcons are going to be a force in the SoCon.
Speaking of the SoCon, this game offsets the High Point loss to Maryland as far as the interconference competition for SOS.Tension Game Score: 81★ ★The tension game score for this game was 81, which indicates a game that was more swingy than tight throughout.Air Force Min. Win Probability: 18%★ ★The lowest win probability that Air Force had at any point during the game was 18.4%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.LaxELO Points Transfer: 17★The victory means a transfer of 17 LaxELO points from Duke to Air Force. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Air Force moves from 24th to 23rd nationally; Duke goes from 15th to 18th.
To rank games, we will be using three values:
 Tension Game Score – a measure of how tight the game was. A backandforth match up where neither team is able to take control is going to have a lower tension score (i.e. smaller gap between the teams).
 Min. Win Probability – the lowest win probability value that our model ascribed to the eventual winner during the course of the game. A game where the winner had to make a huge comeback is probably going to have a very low win probability (think about the moment that it seemed least likely that they’d come back).
 LaxELO Transfer – a measure of how much an intridual game did to make us reassess how good a certain team was. In a game where a favorite beats the underdog by as much as we thought they would, you don’t really update your priors about how good each team is. Those games would also transfer a relatively small number of LaxELO points.
We will present the metrics for each game, along with a starbased indicator to tell you how common or uncommon that outcome is. For example, a game in which the winning team had a win probability in the single digits is a rare occurence and would get 3 stars in that category.
We welcome your feedback, and we hope that this helps you to distill down the craziness of a full lacrosse slate into a more digestible list of highlights.