Our quantitative way to highlight the best games of a busy slate. See below for the explainer.
Game of Interest #1MarylandTowson1413LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 67★ ★The tension game score for this game was 67, which indicates an fairly close battle.Maryland Min. Win Probability: 8%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Maryland had at any point during the game was 8.7%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 17★The victory means a transfer of 17 Lax-ELO points from Towson to Maryland. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Maryland moves from 10th to 10th nationally; Towson goes from 12th to 13th.Game Stars
Maryland
Bubba Fairman
4.06 EGA
Kyle Long
3.24 EGA
Logan Wisnauskas
2.95 EGA
Towson
Alex Woodall
5.83 EGA
Brendan Sunday
5.1 EGA
Brody Mclean
4.71 EGA
Game of Interest #1MarylandTowson1413LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 67★ ★The tension game score for this game was 67, which indicates an fairly close battle.Maryland Min. Win Probability: 8%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Maryland had at any point during the game was 8.7%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 17★The victory means a transfer of 17 Lax-ELO points from Towson to Maryland. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Maryland moves from 10th to 10th nationally; Towson goes from 12th to 13th.
Game of Interest #2RichmondDuke1112LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 94★The tension game score for this game was 94, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Duke Min. Win Probability: 36%★The lowest win probability that Duke had at any point during the game was 36.7%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 4★The victory means a transfer of 4 Lax-ELO points from Richmond to Duke. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Richmond moves from 15th to 15th nationally; Duke goes from 4th to 4th.Game Stars
Duke
Nakeie Montgomery
4.28 EGA
Brad Smith
3.46 EGA
Joe Stein
3.0 EGA
Richmond
Tyler Shoults
3.97 EGA
Tate Gallagher
2.75 EGA
Mitch Savoca
2.55 EGA
Game of Interest #2RichmondDuke1112LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 94★The tension game score for this game was 94, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Duke Min. Win Probability: 36%★The lowest win probability that Duke had at any point during the game was 36.7%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 4★The victory means a transfer of 4 Lax-ELO points from Richmond to Duke. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Richmond moves from 15th to 15th nationally; Duke goes from 4th to 4th.
Game of Interest #3Johns HopkinsNotre Dame916LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 145★The tension game score for this game was 145, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Notre Dame Min. Win Probability: 47%★The lowest win probability that Notre Dame had at any point during the game was 47.8%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 22★The victory means a transfer of 22 Lax-ELO points from Johns Hopkins to Notre Dame. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Johns Hopkins moves from 19th to 19th nationally; Notre Dame goes from 20th to 20th.Game Stars
Notre Dame
Charles Leonard
5.37 EGA
Morrison Mirer
3.7 EGA
Ryder Garnsey
3.06 EGA
Johns Hopkins
Joey Epstein
4.1 EGA
Cole Williams
3.81 EGA
Forry Smith
2.01 EGA
Game of Interest #3Johns HopkinsNotre Dame916LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 145★The tension game score for this game was 145, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Notre Dame Min. Win Probability: 47%★The lowest win probability that Notre Dame had at any point during the game was 47.8%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 22★The victory means a transfer of 22 Lax-ELO points from Johns Hopkins to Notre Dame. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Johns Hopkins moves from 19th to 19th nationally; Notre Dame goes from 20th to 20th.
Game of Interest #4UMBCPenn State1025LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 145★The tension game score for this game was 145, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Penn State Min. Win Probability: 73%★The lowest win probability that Penn State had at any point during the game was 73.0%, which tells us that the eventual victory was never really in doubt.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 4★The victory means a transfer of 4 Lax-ELO points from UMBC to Penn State. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), UMBC moves from 36th to 36th nationally; Penn State goes from 1st to 1st.Game Stars
Penn State
Gerard Arceri
8.13 EGA
Grant Ament
5.34 EGA
Mac O’Keefe
4.99 EGA
UMBC
Ryan Frawley
4.63 EGA
Brett Mcintyre
2.8 EGA
Trevor Patschorke
1.95 EGA
Game of Interest #4UMBCPenn State1025LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 145★The tension game score for this game was 145, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Penn State Min. Win Probability: 73%★The lowest win probability that Penn State had at any point during the game was 73.0%, which tells us that the eventual victory was never really in doubt.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 4★The victory means a transfer of 4 Lax-ELO points from UMBC to Penn State. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), UMBC moves from 36th to 36th nationally; Penn State goes from 1st to 1st.
When we are blessed with a day in which the slate of games numbers in the dozens, it is all but impossible to really keep track of all the goings on in D1 lacrosse. So we decided to put out a daily digest of the day that was. The idea here is to use some metrics that we can calculate for each game as a way to highlight the most meaningful or interesting matchups.
To rank games, we will be using three values:
Tension Game Score – a measure of how tight the game was. A back-and-forth match up where neither team is able to take control is going to have a lower tension score (i.e. smaller gap between the teams).
Min. Win Probability – the lowest win probability value that our model ascribed to the eventual winner during the course of the game. A game where the winner had to make a huge comeback is probably going to have a very low win probability (think about the moment that it seemed least likely that they’d come back).
Lax-ELO Transfer – a measure of how much an intridual game did to make us re-assess how good a certain team was. In a game where a favorite beats the underdog by as much as we thought they would, you don’t really update your priors about how good each team is. Those games would also transfer a relatively small number of Lax-ELO points.
We will present the metrics for each game, along with a star-based indicator to tell you how common or uncommon that outcome is. For example, a game in which the winning team had a win probability in the single digits is a rare occurence and would get 3 stars in that category.
We welcome your feedback, and we hope that this helps you to distill down the craziness of a full lacrosse slate into a more digestible list of highlights.