Syracuse
Loyola MD1315LaxWP Game PageIt would not be hyperbole to say that this game turned with 3 minutes left in the 3rd quarter. At that point, Syracuse was up 12-8, having just scored to push the lead to 4. Things were looking good.But while Syracuse had racked up a 4-goal lead over the first 42 minutes of game action, in the final 18, they gave it all back, and then some. The 7-1 run that Loyola ended the game on turned an Orange lead into a fairly safe Greyhound win.
As for as much as we hear about the Loyola offense, the credit for the comeback goes to the D. A few statistical comparisons:
Before the turning point, Cuse turned it over on 26% of their possessions; after, that number was 55%. Before the turning point, the Orange took 1.29 shots per possession; after it was just .82 (their season average is 1.06).
I feel the need to separate Stover from the generic Loyola D as well. In the first part of the game, when Syracuse built their lead, he had a respectable 52% save percentage. As Loyola made their comeback, his save percentage shot up to 80%.
A defense that starts forcing turnovers and a goalie that turns into a brick wall. If you have an offense as powerful as Loyola’s, those would be the first two ingredients in the recipe for a comeback.
Tension Game Score: 92★ ★The tension game score for this game was 92, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Loyola Min. Win Probability: 11%★ ★The lowest win probability that Loyola had at any point during the game was 11.8%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 8★The victory means a transfer of 8 Lax-ELO points from Syracuse to Loyola. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Syracuse moves from 8th to 8th nationally; Loyola MD goes from 3rd to 3rd.Game Stars
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SyracuseLoyola MD1315LaxWP Game PageIt would not be hyperbole to say that this game turned with 3 minutes left in the 3rd quarter. At that point, Syracuse was up 12-8, having just scored to push the lead to 4. Things were looking good.But while Syracuse had racked up a 4-goal lead over the first 42 minutes of game action, in the final 18, they gave it all back, and then some. The 7-1 run that Loyola ended the game on turned an Orange lead into a fairly safe Greyhound win.
As for as much as we hear about the Loyola offense, the credit for the comeback goes to the D. A few statistical comparisons:
Before the turning point, Cuse turned it over on 26% of their possessions; after, that number was 55%. Before the turning point, the Orange took 1.29 shots per possession; after it was just .82 (their season average is 1.06).
I feel the need to separate Stover from the generic Loyola D as well. In the first part of the game, when Syracuse built their lead, he had a respectable 52% save percentage. As Loyola made their comeback, his save percentage shot up to 80%.
A defense that starts forcing turnovers and a goalie that turns into a brick wall. If you have an offense as powerful as Loyola’s, those would be the first two ingredients in the recipe for a comeback.
Tension Game Score: 92★ ★The tension game score for this game was 92, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Loyola Min. Win Probability: 11%★ ★The lowest win probability that Loyola had at any point during the game was 11.8%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 8★The victory means a transfer of 8 Lax-ELO points from Syracuse to Loyola. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Syracuse moves from 8th to 8th nationally; Loyola MD goes from 3rd to 3rd.
Army
Penn813LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 114★The tension game score for this game was 114, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Penn Min. Win Probability: 51%★The lowest win probability that Penn had at any point during the game was 51.7%, which tells us that the eventual victory was never really in doubt.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 18★The victory means a transfer of 18 Lax-ELO points from Army to Penn. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Army moves from 11th to 11th nationally; Penn goes from 6th to 6th.Game Stars
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ArmyPenn813LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 114★The tension game score for this game was 114, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Penn Min. Win Probability: 51%★The lowest win probability that Penn had at any point during the game was 51.7%, which tells us that the eventual victory was never really in doubt.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 18★The victory means a transfer of 18 Lax-ELO points from Army to Penn. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Army moves from 11th to 11th nationally; Penn goes from 6th to 6th.
Robert Morris
Virginia1019LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 142★The tension game score for this game was 142, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Virginia Min. Win Probability: 49%★The lowest win probability that Virginia had at any point during the game was 49.5%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 22★The victory means a transfer of 22 Lax-ELO points from Robert Morris to Virginia. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Robert Morris moves from 16th to 18th nationally; Virginia goes from 13th to 11th.Game Stars
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Robert MorrisVirginia1019LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 142★The tension game score for this game was 142, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Virginia Min. Win Probability: 49%★The lowest win probability that Virginia had at any point during the game was 49.5%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 22★The victory means a transfer of 22 Lax-ELO points from Robert Morris to Virginia. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Robert Morris moves from 16th to 18th nationally; Virginia goes from 13th to 11th.
Georgetown
Yale1619LaxWP Game PageI am thinking that Georgetown would give just about anything to get a mulligan on that first quarter. Consider this: in the final three quarters of the game, the Hoyas outscored Yale 13-10. But they don’t give mulligans, so the 9 goals and 60% efficiency that Yale racked up in the first frame was enough for them to ride out an impressive day from Georgetown.
Another item for your consideration: even including the first quarter, Georgetown was the better team on a per/possession basis. They scored on 33.9% of their possessions, while Yale scored on 30.8% of theirs.
So why is Yale moving on to the quarters? Answer: TD Ierlan. He was primarily responsible for Yale enjoying a +18 possession advantage. And given the efficiency gap, Yale needed it.
Tension Game Score: 184★The tension game score for this game was 184, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Yale Min. Win Probability: 64%★The lowest win probability that Yale had at any point during the game was 64.8%, which tells us that the eventual victory was never really in doubt.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 8★The victory means a transfer of 8 Lax-ELO points from Georgetown to Yale. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Georgetown moves from 5th to 5th nationally; Yale goes from 2nd to 2nd.Game Stars
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GeorgetownYale1619LaxWP Game PageI am thinking that Georgetown would give just about anything to get a mulligan on that first quarter. Consider this: in the final three quarters of the game, the Hoyas outscored Yale 13-10. But they don’t give mulligans, so the 9 goals and 60% efficiency that Yale racked up in the first frame was enough for them to ride out an impressive day from Georgetown.
Another item for your consideration: even including the first quarter, Georgetown was the better team on a per/possession basis. They scored on 33.9% of their possessions, while Yale scored on 30.8% of theirs.
So why is Yale moving on to the quarters? Answer: TD Ierlan. He was primarily responsible for Yale enjoying a +18 possession advantage. And given the efficiency gap, Yale needed it.
Tension Game Score: 184★The tension game score for this game was 184, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Yale Min. Win Probability: 64%★The lowest win probability that Yale had at any point during the game was 64.8%, which tells us that the eventual victory was never really in doubt.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 8★The victory means a transfer of 8 Lax-ELO points from Georgetown to Yale. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Georgetown moves from 5th to 5th nationally; Yale goes from 2nd to 2nd.To rank games, we will be using three values:
- Tension Game Score – a measure of how tight the game was. A back-and-forth match up where neither team is able to take control is going to have a lower tension score (i.e. smaller gap between the teams).
- Min. Win Probability – the lowest win probability value that our model ascribed to the eventual winner during the course of the game. A game where the winner had to make a huge comeback is probably going to have a very low win probability (think about the moment that it seemed least likely that they’d come back).
- Lax-ELO Transfer – a measure of how much an intridual game did to make us re-assess how good a certain team was. In a game where a favorite beats the underdog by as much as we thought they would, you don’t really update your priors about how good each team is. Those games would also transfer a relatively small number of Lax-ELO points.
We will present the metrics for each game, along with a star-based indicator to tell you how common or uncommon that outcome is. For example, a game in which the winning team had a win probability in the single digits is a rare occurence and would get 3 stars in that category.
We welcome your feedback, and we hope that this helps you to distill down the craziness of a full lacrosse slate into a more digestible list of highlights.
