Our quantitative way to highlight the best games of a busy slate. See below for the explainer.
Game of Interest #1UMBCVermont1413LaxWP Game PageThe game of the day saw the Retrievers channel their basketball team and snag the AEC conference title with the win over Vermont.
It was the offense that won the day for the typically defensive-minded UMBC squad. They came into the game scoring on 28.5% of their offensive possessions. But in this one, they churned out 14 goals for a mark of 37.8%.
UMBC also did a great job of extending possessions. They managed to get 1.08 shots/per possession, despite a 35% shooting rate (season average was 31%). This suggests that they were able to grab rebounds and effectively get a lot of second looks.
Tension Game Score: 63★ ★The tension game score for this game was 63, which indicates an fairly close battle.UMBC Min. Win Probability: 4%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that UMBC had at any point during the game was 4.5%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 18★The victory means a transfer of 18 Lax-ELO points from Vermont to UMBC. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), UMBC moves from 45th to 41st nationally; Vermont goes from 22nd to 23rd.Game Stars
UMBC
Trevor Patschorke
6.13 EGA
Ryan Frawley
4.66 EGA
Brett Mcintyre
3.37 EGA
Vermont
Alex Semler
4.15 EGA
David Closterman
3.12 EGA
Ben French
2.6 EGA
Game of Interest #1UMBCVermont1413LaxWP Game PageThe game of the day saw the Retrievers channel their basketball team and snag the AEC conference title with the win over Vermont.
It was the offense that won the day for the typically defensive-minded UMBC squad. They came into the game scoring on 28.5% of their offensive possessions. But in this one, they churned out 14 goals for a mark of 37.8%.
UMBC also did a great job of extending possessions. They managed to get 1.08 shots/per possession, despite a 35% shooting rate (season average was 31%). This suggests that they were able to grab rebounds and effectively get a lot of second looks.
Tension Game Score: 63★ ★The tension game score for this game was 63, which indicates an fairly close battle.UMBC Min. Win Probability: 4%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that UMBC had at any point during the game was 4.5%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 18★The victory means a transfer of 18 Lax-ELO points from Vermont to UMBC. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), UMBC moves from 45th to 41st nationally; Vermont goes from 22nd to 23rd.
Game of Interest #2Robert MorrisHobart and William1110LaxWP Game PageRobert Morris ended what had been one of the more interesting lower-conference seasons by the Statesmen with an 11-10 victory.
A bit of a sloppy game overall, as both teams exceeded their season averages for turnover rate. On the flip side, both teams got a better performance in goal than they had been accustomed to.
Evenly matched overall though; it was the Robert Morris comeback that will define this one. The 5-goal run to turn a 6-3 deficit into an 8-6 advantage was the key.Tension Game Score: 87★ ★The tension game score for this game was 87, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Robert Morris Min. Win Probability: 7%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Robert Morris had at any point during the game was 7.0%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 16★The victory means a transfer of 16 Lax-ELO points from Hobart to Robert Morris. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Robert Morris moves from 19th to 16th nationally; Hobart and William goes from 26th to 26th.Game Stars
Robert Morris
Ryan Smith
4.82 EGA
Matt Schmidt
2.26 EGA
Corson Kealey
1.9 EGA
Hobart
Justin Scott
3.66 EGA
Eric Holden
3.24 EGA
Matthew Pedicine
2.55 EGA
Game of Interest #2Robert MorrisHobart and William1110LaxWP Game PageRobert Morris ended what had been one of the more interesting lower-conference seasons by the Statesmen with an 11-10 victory.
A bit of a sloppy game overall, as both teams exceeded their season averages for turnover rate. On the flip side, both teams got a better performance in goal than they had been accustomed to.
Evenly matched overall though; it was the Robert Morris comeback that will define this one. The 5-goal run to turn a 6-3 deficit into an 8-6 advantage was the key.Tension Game Score: 87★ ★The tension game score for this game was 87, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Robert Morris Min. Win Probability: 7%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Robert Morris had at any point during the game was 7.0%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 16★The victory means a transfer of 16 Lax-ELO points from Hobart to Robert Morris. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Robert Morris moves from 19th to 16th nationally; Hobart and William goes from 26th to 26th.
Game of Interest #3QuinnipiacMarist1415LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 60★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 60, which indicates an fairly close battle.Marist Min. Win Probability: 20%★ ★The lowest win probability that Marist had at any point during the game was 20.5%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 9★The victory means a transfer of 9 Lax-ELO points from Quinnipiac to Marist. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Quinnipiac moves from 33rd to 35th nationally; Marist goes from 40th to 39th.Game Stars
Marist
Jamison Embury
4.66 EGA
Peyton Smith
3.33 EGA
Jake Weinman
3.13 EGA
Quinnipiac
Foster Cuomo
5.67 EGA
Mike Fletcher
3.24 EGA
Demitri George
3.02 EGA
Game of Interest #3QuinnipiacMarist1415LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 60★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 60, which indicates an fairly close battle.Marist Min. Win Probability: 20%★ ★The lowest win probability that Marist had at any point during the game was 20.5%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 9★The victory means a transfer of 9 Lax-ELO points from Quinnipiac to Marist. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Quinnipiac moves from 33rd to 35th nationally; Marist goes from 40th to 39th.
Game of Interest #4Johns HopkinsPenn State1718LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 70★ ★The tension game score for this game was 70, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Penn State Min. Win Probability: 22%★ ★The lowest win probability that Penn State had at any point during the game was 22.5%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 2★The victory means a transfer of 2 Lax-ELO points from Johns Hopkins to Penn State. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Johns Hopkins moves from 20th to 19th nationally; Penn State goes from 2nd to 2nd.Game Stars
Penn State
Mac O’Keefe
5.23 EGA
Grant Ament
3.8 EGA
Tj Malone
3.22 EGA
Johns Hopkins
Joey Epstein
5.64 EGA
Matt Nareweski
4.3 EGA
Cole Williams
3.34 EGA
Game of Interest #4Johns HopkinsPenn State1718LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 70★ ★The tension game score for this game was 70, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Penn State Min. Win Probability: 22%★ ★The lowest win probability that Penn State had at any point during the game was 22.5%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 2★The victory means a transfer of 2 Lax-ELO points from Johns Hopkins to Penn State. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Johns Hopkins moves from 20th to 19th nationally; Penn State goes from 2nd to 2nd.
Game of Interest #5RichmondHigh Point157LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 132★The tension game score for this game was 132, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Richmond Min. Win Probability: 41%★The lowest win probability that Richmond had at any point during the game was 41.4%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 56★ ★ ★The victory means a transfer of 56 Lax-ELO points from High Point to Richmond. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Richmond moves from 24th to 15th nationally; High Point goes from 15th to 25th.Game Stars
Richmond
Ryan Lanchbury
3.44 EGA
Teddy Hatfield
3.3 EGA
Ryan Lee
3.08 EGA
High Point
Davis Sampere
4.78 EGA
Asher Nolting
2.88 EGA
Sean Coughlin
1.82 EGA
Game of Interest #5RichmondHigh Point157LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 132★The tension game score for this game was 132, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Richmond Min. Win Probability: 41%★The lowest win probability that Richmond had at any point during the game was 41.4%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 56★ ★ ★The victory means a transfer of 56 Lax-ELO points from High Point to Richmond. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Richmond moves from 24th to 15th nationally; High Point goes from 15th to 25th.
Game of Interest #6GeorgetownDenver129LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 132★The tension game score for this game was 132, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Georgetown Min. Win Probability: 44%★The lowest win probability that Georgetown had at any point during the game was 44.3%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 35★ ★The victory means a transfer of 35 Lax-ELO points from Denver to Georgetown. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Georgetown moves from 7th to 5th nationally; Denver goes from 5th to 9th.Game Stars
Georgetown
Daniel Bucaro
5.32 EGA
James Reilly
2.71 EGA
Lucas Wittenberg
2.46 EGA
Denver
Brett Boos
3.11 EGA
Jack Hannah
2.59 EGA
Ethan Walker
2.58 EGA
Game of Interest #6GeorgetownDenver129LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 132★The tension game score for this game was 132, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Georgetown Min. Win Probability: 44%★The lowest win probability that Georgetown had at any point during the game was 44.3%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 35★ ★The victory means a transfer of 35 Lax-ELO points from Denver to Georgetown. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Georgetown moves from 7th to 5th nationally; Denver goes from 5th to 9th.
Game of Interest #7Notre DameVirginia410LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 124★The tension game score for this game was 124, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Virginia Min. Win Probability: 47%★The lowest win probability that Virginia had at any point during the game was 47.7%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 19★The victory means a transfer of 19 Lax-ELO points from Notre Dame to Virginia. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Notre Dame moves from 16th to 20th nationally; Virginia goes from 13th to 12th.Game Stars
Virginia
Matt Moore
2.83 EGA
Dox Aitken
2.75 EGA
Petey Lasalla
2.43 EGA
Notre Dame
Connor Morin
2.24 EGA
Bryan Costabile
1.55 EGA
Charles Leonard
1.13 EGA
Game of Interest #7Notre DameVirginia410LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 124★The tension game score for this game was 124, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Virginia Min. Win Probability: 47%★The lowest win probability that Virginia had at any point during the game was 47.7%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 19★The victory means a transfer of 19 Lax-ELO points from Notre Dame to Virginia. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Notre Dame moves from 16th to 20th nationally; Virginia goes from 13th to 12th.
Game of Interest #8DrexelTowson1416LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 138★The tension game score for this game was 138, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Towson Min. Win Probability: 48%★The lowest win probability that Towson had at any point during the game was 48.8%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 5★The victory means a transfer of 5 Lax-ELO points from Drexel to Towson. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Drexel moves from 37th to 38th nationally; Towson goes from 11th to 11th.Game Stars
Towson
Timmy Monahan
4.84 EGA
Brendan Sunday
3.99 EGA
Brody Mclean
3.75 EGA
Drexel
Jimmeh Koita
7.38 EGA
Ryan Genord
4.18 EGA
Collin Mailman
3.1 EGA
Game of Interest #8DrexelTowson1416LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 138★The tension game score for this game was 138, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Towson Min. Win Probability: 48%★The lowest win probability that Towson had at any point during the game was 48.8%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 5★The victory means a transfer of 5 Lax-ELO points from Drexel to Towson. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Drexel moves from 37th to 38th nationally; Towson goes from 11th to 11th.
When we are blessed with a day in which the slate of games numbers in the dozens, it is all but impossible to really keep track of all the goings on in D1 lacrosse. So we decided to put out a daily digest of the day that was. The idea here is to use some metrics that we can calculate for each game as a way to highlight the most meaningful or interesting matchups.
To rank games, we will be using three values:
Tension Game Score – a measure of how tight the game was. A back-and-forth match up where neither team is able to take control is going to have a lower tension score (i.e. smaller gap between the teams).
Min. Win Probability – the lowest win probability value that our model ascribed to the eventual winner during the course of the game. A game where the winner had to make a huge comeback is probably going to have a very low win probability (think about the moment that it seemed least likely that they’d come back).
Lax-ELO Transfer – a measure of how much an intridual game did to make us re-assess how good a certain team was. In a game where a favorite beats the underdog by as much as we thought they would, you don’t really update your priors about how good each team is. Those games would also transfer a relatively small number of Lax-ELO points.
We will present the metrics for each game, along with a star-based indicator to tell you how common or uncommon that outcome is. For example, a game in which the winning team had a win probability in the single digits is a rare occurence and would get 3 stars in that category.
We welcome your feedback, and we hope that this helps you to distill down the craziness of a full lacrosse slate into a more digestible list of highlights.