Our quantitative way to highlight the best games of a busy slate. See below for the explainer.
Game of Interest #1ArmyLoyola MD75LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 73★ ★The tension game score for this game was 73, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Army Min. Win Probability: 23%★ ★The lowest win probability that Army had at any point during the game was 23.8%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 30★ ★The victory means a transfer of 30 Lax-ELO points from Loyola to Army. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Army moves from 18th to 12th nationally; Loyola MD goes from 3rd to 3rd.Game Stars
Army
Brendan Nichtern
2.61 EGA
Sean O’Brien
2.58 EGA
Nicholas Garofano
2.24 EGA
Loyola
Aidan Olmstead
3.09 EGA
Bailey Savio
3.0 EGA
Chase Scanlan
2.52 EGA
Game of Interest #1ArmyLoyola MD75LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 73★ ★The tension game score for this game was 73, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Army Min. Win Probability: 23%★ ★The lowest win probability that Army had at any point during the game was 23.8%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 30★ ★The victory means a transfer of 30 Lax-ELO points from Loyola to Army. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Army moves from 18th to 12th nationally; Loyola MD goes from 3rd to 3rd.
Game of Interest #2Boston ULehigh910LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 64★ ★The tension game score for this game was 64, which indicates an fairly close battle.Lehigh Min. Win Probability: 18%★ ★The lowest win probability that Lehigh had at any point during the game was 18.6%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 10★The victory means a transfer of 10 Lax-ELO points from Boston U to Lehigh. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Boston U moves from 14th to 15th nationally; Lehigh goes from 30th to 30th.Game Stars
Lehigh
Conor Gaffney
4.97 EGA
Lucas Spence
3.95 EGA
Tommy Schelling
1.95 EGA
Boston U
James Burr
3.38 EGA
Chris Gray
3.37 EGA
Matt Hilburn
2.08 EGA
Game of Interest #2Boston ULehigh910LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 64★ ★The tension game score for this game was 64, which indicates an fairly close battle.Lehigh Min. Win Probability: 18%★ ★The lowest win probability that Lehigh had at any point during the game was 18.6%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 10★The victory means a transfer of 10 Lax-ELO points from Boston U to Lehigh. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Boston U moves from 14th to 15th nationally; Lehigh goes from 30th to 30th.
Game of Interest #3BrownPenn1213LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 133★The tension game score for this game was 133, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Penn Min. Win Probability: 52%★The lowest win probability that Penn had at any point during the game was 52.2%, which tells us that the eventual victory was never really in doubt.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 3★The victory means a transfer of 3 Lax-ELO points from Brown to Penn. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Brown moves from 31st to 31st nationally; Penn goes from 10th to 9th.Game Stars
Penn
Simon Mathias
5.6 EGA
Sam Handley
3.81 EGA
Kyle Gallagher
3.5 EGA
Brown
Ryan Aughavin
4.06 EGA
Matt Mcshea
3.69 EGA
Michael Panepinto
3.43 EGA
Game of Interest #3BrownPenn1213LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 133★The tension game score for this game was 133, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Penn Min. Win Probability: 52%★The lowest win probability that Penn had at any point during the game was 52.2%, which tells us that the eventual victory was never really in doubt.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 3★The victory means a transfer of 3 Lax-ELO points from Brown to Penn. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Brown moves from 31st to 31st nationally; Penn goes from 10th to 9th.
Game of Interest #4CornellYale1015LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 133★The tension game score for this game was 133, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Yale Min. Win Probability: 62%★The lowest win probability that Yale had at any point during the game was 62.2%, which tells us that the eventual victory was never really in doubt.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 9★The victory means a transfer of 9 Lax-ELO points from Cornell to Yale. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Cornell moves from 6th to 6th nationally; Yale goes from 2nd to 1st.Game Stars
Yale
Td Ierlan
7.04 EGA
Matt Brandau
4.37 EGA
Jack Tigh
3.88 EGA
Cornell
Jeff Teat
5.07 EGA
John Piatelli
2.51 EGA
Zach Ward
1.63 EGA
Game of Interest #4CornellYale1015LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 133★The tension game score for this game was 133, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Yale Min. Win Probability: 62%★The lowest win probability that Yale had at any point during the game was 62.2%, which tells us that the eventual victory was never really in doubt.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 9★The victory means a transfer of 9 Lax-ELO points from Cornell to Yale. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Cornell moves from 6th to 6th nationally; Yale goes from 2nd to 1st.
When we are blessed with a day in which the slate of games numbers in the dozens, it is all but impossible to really keep track of all the goings on in D1 lacrosse. So we decided to put out a daily digest of the day that was. The idea here is to use some metrics that we can calculate for each game as a way to highlight the most meaningful or interesting matchups.
To rank games, we will be using three values:
Tension Game Score – a measure of how tight the game was. A back-and-forth match up where neither team is able to take control is going to have a lower tension score (i.e. smaller gap between the teams).
Min. Win Probability – the lowest win probability value that our model ascribed to the eventual winner during the course of the game. A game where the winner had to make a huge comeback is probably going to have a very low win probability (think about the moment that it seemed least likely that they’d come back).
Lax-ELO Transfer – a measure of how much an intridual game did to make us re-assess how good a certain team was. In a game where a favorite beats the underdog by as much as we thought they would, you don’t really update your priors about how good each team is. Those games would also transfer a relatively small number of Lax-ELO points.
We will present the metrics for each game, along with a star-based indicator to tell you how common or uncommon that outcome is. For example, a game in which the winning team had a win probability in the single digits is a rare occurence and would get 3 stars in that category.
We welcome your feedback, and we hope that this helps you to distill down the craziness of a full lacrosse slate into a more digestible list of highlights.