Our quantitative way to highlight the best games of a busy slate. See below for the explainer.
Game of Interest #1RichmondAir Force76LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 41★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 41, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Richmond Min. Win Probability: 12%★ ★The lowest win probability that Richmond had at any point during the game was 12.7%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 17★The victory means a transfer of 17 Lax-ELO points from Air Force to Richmond. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Richmond moves from 25th to 25th nationally; Air Force goes from 12th to 11th.Game Stars
Richmond
Teddy Hatfield
2.3 EGA
Ryan Lanchbury
1.98 EGA
Tate Gallagher
1.87 EGA
Air Force
Trent Harper
3.77 EGA
Trey Lervick
3.38 EGA
Christian Kuhn
1.95 EGA
Game of Interest #1RichmondAir Force76LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 41★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 41, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Richmond Min. Win Probability: 12%★ ★The lowest win probability that Richmond had at any point during the game was 12.7%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 17★The victory means a transfer of 17 Lax-ELO points from Air Force to Richmond. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Richmond moves from 25th to 25th nationally; Air Force goes from 12th to 11th.
Game of Interest #2MarylandJohns Hopkins712LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 84★ ★The tension game score for this game was 84, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Johns Hopkins Min. Win Probability: 10%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Johns Hopkins had at any point during the game was 11.0%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 30★ ★The victory means a transfer of 30 Lax-ELO points from Maryland to Johns Hopkins. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Maryland moves from 5th to 5th nationally; Johns Hopkins goes from 24th to 24th.Game Stars
Johns Hopkins
Cole Williams
4.81 EGA
Joey Epstein
3.97 EGA
Alex Concannon
1.97 EGA
Maryland
Jared Bernhardt
3.36 EGA
Justin Shockey
3.05 EGA
Logan Wisnauskas
2.0 EGA
Game of Interest #2MarylandJohns Hopkins712LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 84★ ★The tension game score for this game was 84, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Johns Hopkins Min. Win Probability: 10%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Johns Hopkins had at any point during the game was 11.0%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 30★ ★The victory means a transfer of 30 Lax-ELO points from Maryland to Johns Hopkins. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Maryland moves from 5th to 5th nationally; Johns Hopkins goes from 24th to 24th.
Game of Interest #3Robert MorrisMount St Marys1312LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 79★ ★The tension game score for this game was 79, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Robert Morris Min. Win Probability: 4%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Robert Morris had at any point during the game was 4.9%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 16★The victory means a transfer of 16 Lax-ELO points from Mount St Marys to Robert Morris. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Robert Morris moves from 20th to 19th nationally; Mount St Marys goes from 39th to 41st.Game Stars
Robert Morris
Corson Kealey
4.51 EGA
Michael Autry
3.08 EGA
Tyson Gibson
2.59 EGA
Mount St Marys
Brenden Mccarthy
6.8 EGA
Chris Dipretoro
3.63 EGA
Sam Stephan
1.77 EGA
Game of Interest #3Robert MorrisMount St Marys1312LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 79★ ★The tension game score for this game was 79, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Robert Morris Min. Win Probability: 4%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Robert Morris had at any point during the game was 4.9%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 16★The victory means a transfer of 16 Lax-ELO points from Mount St Marys to Robert Morris. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Robert Morris moves from 20th to 19th nationally; Mount St Marys goes from 39th to 41st.
Game of Interest #4ProvidenceGeorgetown1213LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 78★ ★The tension game score for this game was 78, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Georgetown Min. Win Probability: 3%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Georgetown had at any point during the game was 3.7%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 2★The victory means a transfer of 2 Lax-ELO points from Providence to Georgetown. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Providence moves from 37th to 37th nationally; Georgetown goes from 9th to 9th.Game Stars
Georgetown
Lucas Wittenberg
4.91 EGA
Jake Carraway
3.51 EGA
James Reilly
3.09 EGA
Providence
Matt Grillo
4.35 EGA
Colin Keating
4.23 EGA
Nick Hatzipetrakos
2.6 EGA
Game of Interest #4ProvidenceGeorgetown1213LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 78★ ★The tension game score for this game was 78, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Georgetown Min. Win Probability: 3%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Georgetown had at any point during the game was 3.7%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 2★The victory means a transfer of 2 Lax-ELO points from Providence to Georgetown. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Providence moves from 37th to 37th nationally; Georgetown goes from 9th to 9th.
Game of Interest #5CanisiusMarist1011LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 45★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 45, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Marist Min. Win Probability: 26%★ ★The lowest win probability that Marist had at any point during the game was 26.1%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 9★The victory means a transfer of 9 Lax-ELO points from Canisius to Marist. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Canisius moves from 36th to 36th nationally; Marist goes from 41st to 40th.Game Stars
Marist
James Lyons
3.38 EGA
Joe Tierney
3.25 EGA
Peyton Smith
2.93 EGA
Canisius
Daniel Balawejder
3.26 EGA
Carter Stefaniak
3.26 EGA
Layne Collins
2.69 EGA
Game of Interest #5CanisiusMarist1011LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 45★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 45, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Marist Min. Win Probability: 26%★ ★The lowest win probability that Marist had at any point during the game was 26.1%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 9★The victory means a transfer of 9 Lax-ELO points from Canisius to Marist. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Canisius moves from 36th to 36th nationally; Marist goes from 41st to 40th.
Game of Interest #6AlbanyVermont913LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 64★ ★The tension game score for this game was 64, which indicates an fairly close battle.Vermont Min. Win Probability: 25%★ ★The lowest win probability that Vermont had at any point during the game was 25.6%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 13★The victory means a transfer of 13 Lax-ELO points from Albany to Vermont. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Albany moves from 32nd to 35th nationally; Vermont goes from 23rd to 21st.Game Stars
Vermont
Alex Semler
5.46 EGA
Dawes Milchling
5.41 EGA
Thomas Mcconvey
3.19 EGA
Albany
Tehoka Nanticoke
2.84 EGA
Jakob Patterson
2.78 EGA
Davis Diamond
2.59 EGA
Game of Interest #6AlbanyVermont913LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 64★ ★The tension game score for this game was 64, which indicates an fairly close battle.Vermont Min. Win Probability: 25%★ ★The lowest win probability that Vermont had at any point during the game was 25.6%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 13★The victory means a transfer of 13 Lax-ELO points from Albany to Vermont. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Albany moves from 32nd to 35th nationally; Vermont goes from 23rd to 21st.
Game of Interest #7DrexelMassachusetts1512LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 135★The tension game score for this game was 135, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Drexel Min. Win Probability: 19%★ ★The lowest win probability that Drexel had at any point during the game was 19.6%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 39★ ★The victory means a transfer of 39 Lax-ELO points from UMass to Drexel. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Drexel moves from 42nd to 38th nationally; Massachusetts goes from 11th to 14th.Game Stars
Drexel
Matthew Varian
4.44 EGA
Collin Mailman
3.81 EGA
Jimmeh Koita
3.63 EGA
UMass
Tom Meyers
2.71 EGA
Devin Spencer
2.68 EGA
Jeff Trainor
2.22 EGA
Game of Interest #7DrexelMassachusetts1512LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 135★The tension game score for this game was 135, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Drexel Min. Win Probability: 19%★ ★The lowest win probability that Drexel had at any point during the game was 19.6%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 39★ ★The victory means a transfer of 39 Lax-ELO points from UMass to Drexel. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Drexel moves from 42nd to 38th nationally; Massachusetts goes from 11th to 14th.
When we are blessed with a day in which the slate of games numbers in the dozens, it is all but impossible to really keep track of all the goings on in D1 lacrosse. So we decided to put out a daily digest of the day that was. The idea here is to use some metrics that we can calculate for each game as a way to highlight the most meaningful or interesting matchups.
To rank games, we will be using three values:
Tension Game Score – a measure of how tight the game was. A back-and-forth match up where neither team is able to take control is going to have a lower tension score (i.e. smaller gap between the teams).
Min. Win Probability – the lowest win probability value that our model ascribed to the eventual winner during the course of the game. A game where the winner had to make a huge comeback is probably going to have a very low win probability (think about the moment that it seemed least likely that they’d come back).
Lax-ELO Transfer – a measure of how much an intridual game did to make us re-assess how good a certain team was. In a game where a favorite beats the underdog by as much as we thought they would, you don’t really update your priors about how good each team is. Those games would also transfer a relatively small number of Lax-ELO points.
We will present the metrics for each game, along with a star-based indicator to tell you how common or uncommon that outcome is. For example, a game in which the winning team had a win probability in the single digits is a rare occurence and would get 3 stars in that category.
We welcome your feedback, and we hope that this helps you to distill down the craziness of a full lacrosse slate into a more digestible list of highlights.