Our quantitative way to highlight the best games of a busy slate. See below for the explainer.
Game of Interest #1Johns HopkinsMaryland1611LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 86★ ★The tension game score for this game was 86, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Johns Hopkins Min. Win Probability: 10%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Johns Hopkins had at any point during the game was 10.5%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 50★ ★ ★The victory means a transfer of 50 Lax-ELO points from Maryland to Johns Hopkins. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Johns Hopkins moves from 28th to 24th nationally; Maryland goes from 5th to 5th.Game Stars
Johns Hopkins
Joey Epstein
4.87 EGA
Cole Williams
3.88 EGA
Matt Nareweski
3.87 EGA
Maryland
Bubba Fairman
4.44 EGA
Logan Wisnauskas
2.41 EGA
Jared Bernhardt
1.95 EGA
Game of Interest #1Johns HopkinsMaryland1611LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 86★ ★The tension game score for this game was 86, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Johns Hopkins Min. Win Probability: 10%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Johns Hopkins had at any point during the game was 10.5%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 50★ ★ ★The victory means a transfer of 50 Lax-ELO points from Maryland to Johns Hopkins. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Johns Hopkins moves from 28th to 24th nationally; Maryland goes from 5th to 5th.
Game of Interest #2VillanovaProvidence89LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 55★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 55, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Providence Min. Win Probability: 0%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Providence had at any point during the game was 0.0%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 9★The victory means a transfer of 9 Lax-ELO points from Villanova to Providence. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Villanova moves from 26th to 28th nationally; Providence goes from 37th to 37th.Game Stars
Providence
Colin Keating
4.27 EGA
Evan Mcgreen
2.33 EGA
Brendan Kearns
2.17 EGA
Villanova
Keegan Khan
3.01 EGA
Connor Kirst
2.43 EGA
Corey Mcmanus
2.19 EGA
Game of Interest #2VillanovaProvidence89LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 55★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 55, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Providence Min. Win Probability: 0%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Providence had at any point during the game was 0.0%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 9★The victory means a transfer of 9 Lax-ELO points from Villanova to Providence. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Villanova moves from 26th to 28th nationally; Providence goes from 37th to 37th.
Game of Interest #3TowsonDrexel119LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 50★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 50, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Towson Min. Win Probability: 22%★ ★The lowest win probability that Towson had at any point during the game was 22.7%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 25★The victory means a transfer of 25 Lax-ELO points from Drexel to Towson. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Towson moves from 15th to 12th nationally; Drexel goes from 38th to 43rd.Game Stars
Towson
Jack Mcnallen
3.49 EGA
Brendan Sunday
2.61 EGA
Timmy Monahan
2.13 EGA
Drexel
Matthew Varian
5.06 EGA
Jimmeh Koita
4.54 EGA
Reid Bowering
2.25 EGA
Game of Interest #3TowsonDrexel119LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 50★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 50, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Towson Min. Win Probability: 22%★ ★The lowest win probability that Towson had at any point during the game was 22.7%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 25★The victory means a transfer of 25 Lax-ELO points from Drexel to Towson. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Towson moves from 15th to 12th nationally; Drexel goes from 38th to 43rd.
Game of Interest #4VirginiaNorth Carolina1413LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 83★ ★The tension game score for this game was 83, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Virginia Min. Win Probability: 3%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Virginia had at any point during the game was 3.7%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 16★The victory means a transfer of 16 Lax-ELO points from North Carolina to Virginia. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Virginia moves from 13th to 14th nationally; North Carolina goes from 30th to 31st.Game Stars
Virginia
Matt Moore
5.19 EGA
Michael Kraus
3.7 EGA
Ryan Conrad
3.5 EGA
North Carolina
Justin Anderson
3.46 EGA
Zachary Tucci
2.81 EGA
Andy Matthews
2.06 EGA
Game of Interest #4VirginiaNorth Carolina1413LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 83★ ★The tension game score for this game was 83, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Virginia Min. Win Probability: 3%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Virginia had at any point during the game was 3.7%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 16★The victory means a transfer of 16 Lax-ELO points from North Carolina to Virginia. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Virginia moves from 13th to 14th nationally; North Carolina goes from 30th to 31st.
Game of Interest #5Hobart and WilliamRobert Morris1516LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 79★ ★The tension game score for this game was 79, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Robert Morris Min. Win Probability: 0%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Robert Morris had at any point during the game was 0.8%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 6★The victory means a transfer of 6 Lax-ELO points from Hobart to Robert Morris. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Hobart and William moves from 25th to 26th nationally; Robert Morris goes from 19th to 20th.Game Stars
Robert Morris
Tyson Gibson
6.64 EGA
Ryan Smith
4.47 EGA
Trey Arnold
3.83 EGA
Hobart
Matthew Pedicine
5.2 EGA
Jason Knox
3.33 EGA
Eric Holden
3.29 EGA
Game of Interest #5Hobart and WilliamRobert Morris1516LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 79★ ★The tension game score for this game was 79, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Robert Morris Min. Win Probability: 0%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Robert Morris had at any point during the game was 0.8%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 6★The victory means a transfer of 6 Lax-ELO points from Hobart to Robert Morris. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Hobart and William moves from 25th to 26th nationally; Robert Morris goes from 19th to 20th.
Game of Interest #6PrincetonCornell1314LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 80★ ★The tension game score for this game was 80, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Cornell Min. Win Probability: 1%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Cornell had at any point during the game was 1.5%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 5★The victory means a transfer of 5 Lax-ELO points from Princeton to Cornell. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Princeton moves from 16th to 18th nationally; Cornell goes from 7th to 7th.Game Stars
Cornell
Paul Rasimowicz
5.15 EGA
Clarke Petterson
4.64 EGA
John Piatelli
4.06 EGA
Princeton
Michael Sowers
7.41 EGA
Charlie Durbin
2.48 EGA
Emmet Cordrey
1.92 EGA
Game of Interest #6PrincetonCornell1314LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 80★ ★The tension game score for this game was 80, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Cornell Min. Win Probability: 1%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Cornell had at any point during the game was 1.5%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 5★The victory means a transfer of 5 Lax-ELO points from Princeton to Cornell. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Princeton moves from 16th to 18th nationally; Cornell goes from 7th to 7th.
Game of Interest #7RutgersPenn State1314LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 43★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 43, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Penn State Min. Win Probability: 23%★ ★The lowest win probability that Penn State had at any point during the game was 23.2%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 1★The victory means a transfer of 1 Lax-ELO points from Rutgers to Penn State. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Rutgers moves from 27th to 29th nationally; Penn State goes from 1st to 1st.Game Stars
Penn State
Gerard Arceri
4.46 EGA
Mac O’Keefe
4.05 EGA
Grant Ament
3.88 EGA
Rutgers
Adam Charalambides
5.11 EGA
Tommy Coyne
4.22 EGA
Ryan Gallagher
3.05 EGA
Game of Interest #7RutgersPenn State1314LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 43★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 43, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Penn State Min. Win Probability: 23%★ ★The lowest win probability that Penn State had at any point during the game was 23.2%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 1★The victory means a transfer of 1 Lax-ELO points from Rutgers to Penn State. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Rutgers moves from 27th to 29th nationally; Penn State goes from 1st to 1st.
When we are blessed with a day in which the slate of games numbers in the dozens, it is all but impossible to really keep track of all the goings on in D1 lacrosse. So we decided to put out a daily digest of the day that was. The idea here is to use some metrics that we can calculate for each game as a way to highlight the most meaningful or interesting matchups.
To rank games, we will be using three values:
Tension Game Score – a measure of how tight the game was. A back-and-forth match up where neither team is able to take control is going to have a lower tension score (i.e. smaller gap between the teams).
Min. Win Probability – the lowest win probability value that our model ascribed to the eventual winner during the course of the game. A game where the winner had to make a huge comeback is probably going to have a very low win probability (think about the moment that it seemed least likely that they’d come back).
Lax-ELO Transfer – a measure of how much an intridual game did to make us re-assess how good a certain team was. In a game where a favorite beats the underdog by as much as we thought they would, you don’t really update your priors about how good each team is. Those games would also transfer a relatively small number of Lax-ELO points.
We will present the metrics for each game, along with a star-based indicator to tell you how common or uncommon that outcome is. For example, a game in which the winning team had a win probability in the single digits is a rare occurence and would get 3 stars in that category.
We welcome your feedback, and we hope that this helps you to distill down the craziness of a full lacrosse slate into a more digestible list of highlights.