Daily Digest: Apr 26, 2019
Daily Digest: Apr 26, 2019
Our quantitative way to highlight the best games of a busy slate. See below for the explainer.
Game of Interest #1
Hofstra
Fairfield119LaxWP Game PageThe cursory look at the stats for this one show a game where Hofstra won by 2, thanks to a slightly lower turnover rate, slightly more shots, and a few more possessions. Fairly run-of-the-mill.
HofstraFairfield119LaxWP Game PageThe cursory look at the stats for this one show a game where Hofstra won by 2, thanks to a slightly lower turnover rate, slightly more shots, and a few more possessions. Fairly run-of-the-mill.Why then, would two unheralded teams playing a fairly normal game earn the top spot on our list this morning? The short answer: it was the most suspenseful game of the day, and it wasn’t particularly close.
The final 2-goal margin matched the largest lead that either team had all game. And the entire fourth quarter was a back-and-forth affair with both teams matching each other’s goals. In short, it was a fun game to watch, and I’m sure a fun game to play in.
Tension Game Score: 49★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 49, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Hofstra Min. Win Probability: 20%★ ★The lowest win probability that Hofstra had at any point during the game was 20.2%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 25★The victory means a transfer of 25 Lax-ELO points from Fairfield to Hofstra. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Hofstra moves from 49th to 49th nationally; Fairfield goes from 65th to 65th.Game Stars
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Game of Interest #1HofstraFairfield119LaxWP Game PageThe cursory look at the stats for this one show a game where Hofstra won by 2, thanks to a slightly lower turnover rate, slightly more shots, and a few more possessions. Fairly run-of-the-mill.
HofstraFairfield119LaxWP Game PageThe cursory look at the stats for this one show a game where Hofstra won by 2, thanks to a slightly lower turnover rate, slightly more shots, and a few more possessions. Fairly run-of-the-mill.Why then, would two unheralded teams playing a fairly normal game earn the top spot on our list this morning? The short answer: it was the most suspenseful game of the day, and it wasn’t particularly close.
The final 2-goal margin matched the largest lead that either team had all game. And the entire fourth quarter was a back-and-forth affair with both teams matching each other’s goals. In short, it was a fun game to watch, and I’m sure a fun game to play in.
Tension Game Score: 49★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 49, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Hofstra Min. Win Probability: 20%★ ★The lowest win probability that Hofstra had at any point during the game was 20.2%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 25★The victory means a transfer of 25 Lax-ELO points from Fairfield to Hofstra. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Hofstra moves from 49th to 49th nationally; Fairfield goes from 65th to 65th.Game of Interest #2
Marist
Canisius108LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 83★ ★The tension game score for this game was 83, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Marist Min. Win Probability: 19%★ ★The lowest win probability that Marist had at any point during the game was 19.4%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 28★ ★The victory means a transfer of 28 Lax-ELO points from Canisius to Marist. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Marist moves from 45th to 43rd nationally; Canisius goes from 32nd to 35th.Game Stars
MaristCanisius108LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 83★ ★The tension game score for this game was 83, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Marist Min. Win Probability: 19%★ ★The lowest win probability that Marist had at any point during the game was 19.4%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 28★ ★The victory means a transfer of 28 Lax-ELO points from Canisius to Marist. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Marist moves from 45th to 43rd nationally; Canisius goes from 32nd to 35th.Game Stars
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Game of Interest #2MaristCanisius108LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 83★ ★The tension game score for this game was 83, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Marist Min. Win Probability: 19%★ ★The lowest win probability that Marist had at any point during the game was 19.4%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 28★ ★The victory means a transfer of 28 Lax-ELO points from Canisius to Marist. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Marist moves from 45th to 43rd nationally; Canisius goes from 32nd to 35th.
MaristCanisius108LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 83★ ★The tension game score for this game was 83, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Marist Min. Win Probability: 19%★ ★The lowest win probability that Marist had at any point during the game was 19.4%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 28★ ★The victory means a transfer of 28 Lax-ELO points from Canisius to Marist. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Marist moves from 45th to 43rd nationally; Canisius goes from 32nd to 35th.Game of Interest #3
Denver
Marquette98LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 59★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 59, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Denver Min. Win Probability: 23%★ ★The lowest win probability that Denver had at any point during the game was 23.3%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 15★The victory means a transfer of 15 Lax-ELO points from Marquette to Denver. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Denver moves from 7th to 6th nationally; Marquette goes from 43rd to 46th.Game Stars
DenverMarquette98LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 59★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 59, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Denver Min. Win Probability: 23%★ ★The lowest win probability that Denver had at any point during the game was 23.3%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 15★The victory means a transfer of 15 Lax-ELO points from Marquette to Denver. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Denver moves from 7th to 6th nationally; Marquette goes from 43rd to 46th.Game Stars
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Game of Interest #3DenverMarquette98LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 59★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 59, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Denver Min. Win Probability: 23%★ ★The lowest win probability that Denver had at any point during the game was 23.3%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 15★The victory means a transfer of 15 Lax-ELO points from Marquette to Denver. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Denver moves from 7th to 6th nationally; Marquette goes from 43rd to 46th.
DenverMarquette98LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 59★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 59, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Denver Min. Win Probability: 23%★ ★The lowest win probability that Denver had at any point during the game was 23.3%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 15★The victory means a transfer of 15 Lax-ELO points from Marquette to Denver. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Denver moves from 7th to 6th nationally; Marquette goes from 43rd to 46th.Game of Interest #4
Ohio State
Michigan1013LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 117★The tension game score for this game was 117, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Michigan Min. Win Probability: 13%★ ★The lowest win probability that Michigan had at any point during the game was 13.5%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 33★ ★The victory means a transfer of 33 Lax-ELO points from Ohio State to Michigan. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Ohio State moves from 15th to 23rd nationally; Michigan goes from 55th to 53rd.Game Stars
Ohio StateMichigan1013LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 117★The tension game score for this game was 117, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Michigan Min. Win Probability: 13%★ ★The lowest win probability that Michigan had at any point during the game was 13.5%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 33★ ★The victory means a transfer of 33 Lax-ELO points from Ohio State to Michigan. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Ohio State moves from 15th to 23rd nationally; Michigan goes from 55th to 53rd.Game Stars
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Game of Interest #4Ohio StateMichigan1013LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 117★The tension game score for this game was 117, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Michigan Min. Win Probability: 13%★ ★The lowest win probability that Michigan had at any point during the game was 13.5%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 33★ ★The victory means a transfer of 33 Lax-ELO points from Ohio State to Michigan. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Ohio State moves from 15th to 23rd nationally; Michigan goes from 55th to 53rd.
Ohio StateMichigan1013LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 117★The tension game score for this game was 117, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Michigan Min. Win Probability: 13%★ ★The lowest win probability that Michigan had at any point during the game was 13.5%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 33★ ★The victory means a transfer of 33 Lax-ELO points from Ohio State to Michigan. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Ohio State moves from 15th to 23rd nationally; Michigan goes from 55th to 53rd.Game of Interest #5
Binghamton
Massachusetts-Lowell97LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 118★The tension game score for this game was 118, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Binghamton Min. Win Probability: 18%★ ★The lowest win probability that Binghamton had at any point during the game was 18.6%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 29★ ★The victory means a transfer of 29 Lax-ELO points from UMass-Lowell to Binghamton. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Binghamton moves from 67th to 65th nationally; Massachusetts-Lowell goes from 54th to 57th.Game Stars
BinghamtonMassachusetts-Lowell97LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 118★The tension game score for this game was 118, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Binghamton Min. Win Probability: 18%★ ★The lowest win probability that Binghamton had at any point during the game was 18.6%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 29★ ★The victory means a transfer of 29 Lax-ELO points from UMass-Lowell to Binghamton. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Binghamton moves from 67th to 65th nationally; Massachusetts-Lowell goes from 54th to 57th.Game Stars
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Game of Interest #5BinghamtonMassachusetts-Lowell97LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 118★The tension game score for this game was 118, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Binghamton Min. Win Probability: 18%★ ★The lowest win probability that Binghamton had at any point during the game was 18.6%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 29★ ★The victory means a transfer of 29 Lax-ELO points from UMass-Lowell to Binghamton. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Binghamton moves from 67th to 65th nationally; Massachusetts-Lowell goes from 54th to 57th.
BinghamtonMassachusetts-Lowell97LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 118★The tension game score for this game was 118, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Binghamton Min. Win Probability: 18%★ ★The lowest win probability that Binghamton had at any point during the game was 18.6%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 29★ ★The victory means a transfer of 29 Lax-ELO points from UMass-Lowell to Binghamton. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Binghamton moves from 67th to 65th nationally; Massachusetts-Lowell goes from 54th to 57th.When we are blessed with a day in which the slate of games numbers in the dozens, it is all but impossible to really keep track of all the goings on in D1 lacrosse. So we decided to put out a daily digest of the day that was. The idea here is to use some metrics that we can calculate for each game as a way to highlight the most meaningful or interesting matchups.
To rank games, we will be using three values:
- Tension Game Score – a measure of how tight the game was. A back-and-forth match up where neither team is able to take control is going to have a lower tension score (i.e. smaller gap between the teams).
- Min. Win Probability – the lowest win probability value that our model ascribed to the eventual winner during the course of the game. A game where the winner had to make a huge comeback is probably going to have a very low win probability (think about the moment that it seemed least likely that they’d come back).
- Lax-ELO Transfer – a measure of how much an intridual game did to make us re-assess how good a certain team was. In a game where a favorite beats the underdog by as much as we thought they would, you don’t really update your priors about how good each team is. Those games would also transfer a relatively small number of Lax-ELO points.
We will present the metrics for each game, along with a star-based indicator to tell you how common or uncommon that outcome is. For example, a game in which the winning team had a win probability in the single digits is a rare occurence and would get 3 stars in that category.
We welcome your feedback, and we hope that this helps you to distill down the craziness of a full lacrosse slate into a more digestible list of highlights.
