Our quantitative way to highlight the best games of a busy slate. See below for the explainer.
Game of Interest #1Massachusetts-LowellUMBC1312LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 55★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 55, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.UMass-Lowell Min. Win Probability: 14%★ ★The lowest win probability that UMass-Lowell had at any point during the game was 14.5%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 17★The victory means a transfer of 17 Lax-ELO points from UMBC to UMass-Lowell. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Massachusetts-Lowell moves from 58th to 58th nationally; UMBC goes from 51st to 50th.Game Stars
UMass-Lowell
Liam Mcdonough
6.44 EGA
Domenic Giachello
3.98 EGA
Isaac Bot
3.45 EGA
UMBC
Ryan Frawley
5.19 EGA
Trevor Patschorke
3.92 EGA
Billy Nolan
2.37 EGA
Game of Interest #1Massachusetts-LowellUMBC1312LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 55★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 55, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.UMass-Lowell Min. Win Probability: 14%★ ★The lowest win probability that UMass-Lowell had at any point during the game was 14.5%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 17★The victory means a transfer of 17 Lax-ELO points from UMBC to UMass-Lowell. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Massachusetts-Lowell moves from 58th to 58th nationally; UMBC goes from 51st to 50th.
Game of Interest #2DukeMarquette109LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 37★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 37, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Duke Min. Win Probability: 24%★ ★The lowest win probability that Duke had at any point during the game was 24.7%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 14★The victory means a transfer of 14 Lax-ELO points from Marquette to Duke. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Duke moves from 3rd to 3rd nationally; Marquette goes from 43rd to 43rd.Game Stars
Duke
Cj Carpenter
2.88 EGA
Brad Smith
2.45 EGA
Joey Manown
2.01 EGA
Marquette
John Wagner
5.16 EGA
Bob Pelton
2.77 EGA
Noah Richard
2.3 EGA
Game of Interest #2DukeMarquette109LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 37★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 37, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Duke Min. Win Probability: 24%★ ★The lowest win probability that Duke had at any point during the game was 24.7%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 14★The victory means a transfer of 14 Lax-ELO points from Marquette to Duke. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Duke moves from 3rd to 3rd nationally; Marquette goes from 43rd to 43rd.
Game of Interest #3DrexelHofstra1312LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 74★ ★The tension game score for this game was 74, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Drexel Min. Win Probability: 6%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Drexel had at any point during the game was 6.7%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 16★The victory means a transfer of 16 Lax-ELO points from Hofstra to Drexel. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Drexel moves from 40th to 37th nationally; Hofstra goes from 47th to 49th.Game Stars
Drexel
Matthew Varian
4.59 EGA
Reid Bowering
4.16 EGA
Jimmeh Koita
3.76 EGA
Hofstra
Ryan Tierney
5.76 EGA
Joey Elarde
3.13 EGA
Brian Herber
2.96 EGA
Game of Interest #3DrexelHofstra1312LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 74★ ★The tension game score for this game was 74, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Drexel Min. Win Probability: 6%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Drexel had at any point during the game was 6.7%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 16★The victory means a transfer of 16 Lax-ELO points from Hofstra to Drexel. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Drexel moves from 40th to 37th nationally; Hofstra goes from 47th to 49th.
Game of Interest #4High PointBellarmine1615LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 73★ ★The tension game score for this game was 73, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.High Point Min. Win Probability: 10%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that High Point had at any point during the game was 10.0%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 15★The victory means a transfer of 15 Lax-ELO points from Bellarmine to High Point. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), High Point moves from 19th to 17th nationally; Bellarmine goes from 60th to 60th.Game Stars
High Point
Asher Nolting
6.02 EGA
Davis Sampere
5.21 EGA
Koby Russell
3.74 EGA
Bellarmine
Jt Simonton
5.18 EGA
Riley Seay
4.21 EGA
Morgan Macko
3.24 EGA
Game of Interest #4High PointBellarmine1615LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 73★ ★The tension game score for this game was 73, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.High Point Min. Win Probability: 10%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that High Point had at any point during the game was 10.0%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 15★The victory means a transfer of 15 Lax-ELO points from Bellarmine to High Point. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), High Point moves from 19th to 17th nationally; Bellarmine goes from 60th to 60th.
Game of Interest #5MarylandOhio State109LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 73★ ★The tension game score for this game was 73, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Maryland Min. Win Probability: 11%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Maryland had at any point during the game was 11.6%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 16★The victory means a transfer of 16 Lax-ELO points from Ohio State to Maryland. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Maryland moves from 4th to 4th nationally; Ohio State goes from 12th to 13th.Game Stars
Maryland
Logan Wisnauskas
3.82 EGA
Jared Bernhardt
1.9 EGA
Anthony Demaio
1.64 EGA
Ohio State
Justin Inacio
4.0 EGA
Jack Myers
2.81 EGA
Tre Leclaire
2.65 EGA
Game of Interest #5MarylandOhio State109LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 73★ ★The tension game score for this game was 73, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Maryland Min. Win Probability: 11%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Maryland had at any point during the game was 11.6%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 16★The victory means a transfer of 16 Lax-ELO points from Ohio State to Maryland. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Maryland moves from 4th to 4th nationally; Ohio State goes from 12th to 13th.
Game of Interest #6HartfordBinghamton1215LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 78★ ★The tension game score for this game was 78, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Binghamton Min. Win Probability: 18%★ ★The lowest win probability that Binghamton had at any point during the game was 18.0%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 22★The victory means a transfer of 22 Lax-ELO points from Hartford to Binghamton. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Hartford moves from 61st to 61st nationally; Binghamton goes from 69th to 67th.Game Stars
Binghamton
Joe Licata
5.96 EGA
Andrew Arce
3.07 EGA
Jackson Rieger
2.36 EGA
Hartford
Owen Trepeta
3.68 EGA
Dylan Jinks
3.47 EGA
Ty Thompson
3.37 EGA
Game of Interest #6HartfordBinghamton1215LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 78★ ★The tension game score for this game was 78, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Binghamton Min. Win Probability: 18%★ ★The lowest win probability that Binghamton had at any point during the game was 18.0%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 22★The victory means a transfer of 22 Lax-ELO points from Hartford to Binghamton. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Hartford moves from 61st to 61st nationally; Binghamton goes from 69th to 67th.
Game of Interest #7Stony BrookVermont109LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 110★The tension game score for this game was 110, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Stony Brook Min. Win Probability: 1%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Stony Brook had at any point during the game was 1.5%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 19★The victory means a transfer of 19 Lax-ELO points from Vermont to Stony Brook. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Stony Brook moves from 48th to 46th nationally; Vermont goes from 16th to 23rd.Game Stars
Stony Brook
Layton Harrell
2.54 EGA
Ryland Rees
2.06 EGA
Mike Mccannell
2.02 EGA
Vermont
David Closterman
3.1 EGA
Alex Semler
2.5 EGA
Thomas Mcconvey
2.08 EGA
Game of Interest #7Stony BrookVermont109LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 110★The tension game score for this game was 110, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Stony Brook Min. Win Probability: 1%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Stony Brook had at any point during the game was 1.5%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 19★The victory means a transfer of 19 Lax-ELO points from Vermont to Stony Brook. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Stony Brook moves from 48th to 46th nationally; Vermont goes from 16th to 23rd.
When we are blessed with a day in which the slate of games numbers in the dozens, it is all but impossible to really keep track of all the goings on in D1 lacrosse. So we decided to put out a daily digest of the day that was. The idea here is to use some metrics that we can calculate for each game as a way to highlight the most meaningful or interesting matchups.
To rank games, we will be using three values:
Tension Game Score – a measure of how tight the game was. A back-and-forth match up where neither team is able to take control is going to have a lower tension score (i.e. smaller gap between the teams).
Min. Win Probability – the lowest win probability value that our model ascribed to the eventual winner during the course of the game. A game where the winner had to make a huge comeback is probably going to have a very low win probability (think about the moment that it seemed least likely that they’d come back).
Lax-ELO Transfer – a measure of how much an intridual game did to make us re-assess how good a certain team was. In a game where a favorite beats the underdog by as much as we thought they would, you don’t really update your priors about how good each team is. Those games would also transfer a relatively small number of Lax-ELO points.
We will present the metrics for each game, along with a star-based indicator to tell you how common or uncommon that outcome is. For example, a game in which the winning team had a win probability in the single digits is a rare occurence and would get 3 stars in that category.
We welcome your feedback, and we hope that this helps you to distill down the craziness of a full lacrosse slate into a more digestible list of highlights.