Our quantitative way to highlight the best games of a busy slate. See below for the explainer.
Game of Interest #1MaristQuinnipiac128LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 58★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 58, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Marist Min. Win Probability: 20%★ ★The lowest win probability that Marist had at any point during the game was 20.1%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 42★ ★The victory means a transfer of 42 Lax-ELO points from Quinnipiac to Marist. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Marist moves from 51st to 46th nationally; Quinnipiac goes from 34th to 40th.Game Stars
Marist
Jojo Pirreca
2.9 EGA
James Lyons
2.79 EGA
Jake Weinman
2.03 EGA
Quinnipiac
Mike Fletcher
4.51 EGA
Jake Tomsik
2.58 EGA
Matt Frost
2.23 EGA
Game of Interest #1MaristQuinnipiac128LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 58★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 58, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Marist Min. Win Probability: 20%★ ★The lowest win probability that Marist had at any point during the game was 20.1%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 42★ ★The victory means a transfer of 42 Lax-ELO points from Quinnipiac to Marist. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Marist moves from 51st to 46th nationally; Quinnipiac goes from 34th to 40th.
Game of Interest #2CanisiusDetroit118LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 64★ ★The tension game score for this game was 64, which indicates an fairly close battle.Canisius Min. Win Probability: 15%★ ★The lowest win probability that Canisius had at any point during the game was 15.6%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 34★ ★The victory means a transfer of 34 Lax-ELO points from Detroit to Canisius. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Canisius moves from 33rd to 32nd nationally; Detroit goes from 32nd to 34th.Game Stars
Canisius
Mario Caito
3.42 EGA
Daniel Balawejder
2.81 EGA
Layne Collins
2.65 EGA
Detroit
Matthew Vangalen
3.16 EGA
Brett Erskine
2.05 EGA
Alex Jarzembowski
1.74 EGA
Game of Interest #2CanisiusDetroit118LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 64★ ★The tension game score for this game was 64, which indicates an fairly close battle.Canisius Min. Win Probability: 15%★ ★The lowest win probability that Canisius had at any point during the game was 15.6%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 34★ ★The victory means a transfer of 34 Lax-ELO points from Detroit to Canisius. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Canisius moves from 33rd to 32nd nationally; Detroit goes from 32nd to 34th.
Game of Interest #3BryantHobart and William1112LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 39★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 39, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Hobart Min. Win Probability: 17%★ ★The lowest win probability that Hobart had at any point during the game was 17.5%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 3★The victory means a transfer of 3 Lax-ELO points from Bryant to Hobart. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Bryant moves from 48th to 48th nationally; Hobart and William goes from 30th to 30th.Game Stars
Hobart
Eric Holden
4.39 EGA
Chris Aslanian
3.15 EGA
Matthew Pedicine
3.05 EGA
Bryant
Zach Coffey
2.98 EGA
Trevor Weingarten
2.93 EGA
Nick Beeson
2.65 EGA
Game of Interest #3BryantHobart and William1112LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 39★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 39, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Hobart Min. Win Probability: 17%★ ★The lowest win probability that Hobart had at any point during the game was 17.5%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 3★The victory means a transfer of 3 Lax-ELO points from Bryant to Hobart. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Bryant moves from 48th to 48th nationally; Hobart and William goes from 30th to 30th.
Game of Interest #4BellarmineFurman1512LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 109★The tension game score for this game was 109, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Bellarmine Min. Win Probability: 4%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Bellarmine had at any point during the game was 4.1%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 34★ ★The victory means a transfer of 34 Lax-ELO points from Furman to Bellarmine. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Bellarmine moves from 61st to 60th nationally; Furman goes from 60th to 62nd.
Game of Interest #4BellarmineFurman1512LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 109★The tension game score for this game was 109, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Bellarmine Min. Win Probability: 4%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Bellarmine had at any point during the game was 4.1%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 34★ ★The victory means a transfer of 34 Lax-ELO points from Furman to Bellarmine. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Bellarmine moves from 61st to 60th nationally; Furman goes from 60th to 62nd.
Game of Interest #5UtahHartford1214LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 74★ ★The tension game score for this game was 74, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Hartford Min. Win Probability: 12%★ ★The lowest win probability that Hartford had at any point during the game was 12.7%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 18★The victory means a transfer of 18 Lax-ELO points from Utah to Hartford. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Utah moves from 52nd to 54th nationally; Hartford goes from 62nd to 60th.Game Stars
Hartford
Justin Tkachuk
5.41 EGA
Christian Paley
2.73 EGA
Hunter Krauss
2.22 EGA
Utah
Jimmy Perkins
5.62 EGA
Josh Stout
2.6 EGA
James Sexton
2.41 EGA
Game of Interest #5UtahHartford1214LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 74★ ★The tension game score for this game was 74, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Hartford Min. Win Probability: 12%★ ★The lowest win probability that Hartford had at any point during the game was 12.7%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 18★The victory means a transfer of 18 Lax-ELO points from Utah to Hartford. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Utah moves from 52nd to 54th nationally; Hartford goes from 62nd to 60th.
Game of Interest #6ArmyNavy98LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 77★ ★The tension game score for this game was 77, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Army Min. Win Probability: 9%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Army had at any point during the game was 9.9%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 16★The victory means a transfer of 16 Lax-ELO points from Navy to Army. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Army moves from 21st to 20th nationally; Navy goes from 37th to 40th.Game Stars
Army
Brendan Nichtern
3.64 EGA
Nate Jones
2.49 EGA
Connor Dewitt
2.4 EGA
Navy
Christian Daniel
4.09 EGA
Nick Barry
3.22 EGA
Nick Cole
2.31 EGA
Game of Interest #6ArmyNavy98LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 77★ ★The tension game score for this game was 77, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Army Min. Win Probability: 9%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Army had at any point during the game was 9.9%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 16★The victory means a transfer of 16 Lax-ELO points from Navy to Army. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Army moves from 21st to 20th nationally; Navy goes from 37th to 40th.
Game of Interest #7Mount St MarysWagner128LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 69★ ★The tension game score for this game was 69, which indicates an fairly close battle.Mount St Marys Min. Win Probability: 32%★The lowest win probability that Mount St Marys had at any point during the game was 32.6%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 35★ ★The victory means a transfer of 35 Lax-ELO points from Wagner to Mount St Marys. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Mount St Marys moves from 44th to 44th nationally; Wagner goes from 71st to 71st.Game Stars
Mount St Marys
Brendan Doyle
3.07 EGA
Jack Mangan
1.96 EGA
Luke Frankeny
1.91 EGA
Wagner
Nick Warren
3.63 EGA
Stephen Dwyer
3.23 EGA
Tyler Grady
1.92 EGA
Game of Interest #7Mount St MarysWagner128LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 69★ ★The tension game score for this game was 69, which indicates an fairly close battle.Mount St Marys Min. Win Probability: 32%★The lowest win probability that Mount St Marys had at any point during the game was 32.6%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 35★ ★The victory means a transfer of 35 Lax-ELO points from Wagner to Mount St Marys. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Mount St Marys moves from 44th to 44th nationally; Wagner goes from 71st to 71st.
When we are blessed with a day in which the slate of games numbers in the dozens, it is all but impossible to really keep track of all the goings on in D1 lacrosse. So we decided to put out a daily digest of the day that was. The idea here is to use some metrics that we can calculate for each game as a way to highlight the most meaningful or interesting matchups.
To rank games, we will be using three values:
Tension Game Score – a measure of how tight the game was. A back-and-forth match up where neither team is able to take control is going to have a lower tension score (i.e. smaller gap between the teams).
Min. Win Probability – the lowest win probability value that our model ascribed to the eventual winner during the course of the game. A game where the winner had to make a huge comeback is probably going to have a very low win probability (think about the moment that it seemed least likely that they’d come back).
Lax-ELO Transfer – a measure of how much an intridual game did to make us re-assess how good a certain team was. In a game where a favorite beats the underdog by as much as we thought they would, you don’t really update your priors about how good each team is. Those games would also transfer a relatively small number of Lax-ELO points.
We will present the metrics for each game, along with a star-based indicator to tell you how common or uncommon that outcome is. For example, a game in which the winning team had a win probability in the single digits is a rare occurence and would get 3 stars in that category.
We welcome your feedback, and we hope that this helps you to distill down the craziness of a full lacrosse slate into a more digestible list of highlights.