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Ohio State vs Penn State
Ohio State vs Penn State
April 07, 2019
 Q1Q2Q3Q4TotalOhio State31318Penn State343313
In-Game WP PageOhio State Team PagePenn State Team Page

Tale of the Tape

Stat CategoryOhio StatePenn StateGoals813Shots3726Shots on Goal2220Possessions3536Groundballs168Saves714Save%35%64%Shooting Pct22%50%Faceoffs1211Faceoff %52.2%47.8%Turnovers1210Turnover%34%28%

Everyone has a little bit to like about Penn State’s win. 64% save percentage suggests that Kneese and the defense were on point. Arceri held tough against Justin Inacio at x. The offense continued is world-beating ways with a 50% shooting rate and fairly miniscule 28% turnover rate.

Season Comparison

Penn State SeasonSeason-To-Datevs. Ohio StateOff. Efficiency37.3%36.1%Shooting Pct43%50%Faceoff %58.1%47.8%Turnover%34%28%T.O.P.53%43%Possession Length36.243.3Time to First Shot36.742.7Shots/Possession0.880.72

This was a good example of why fewer shots/possession can be a good thing. Penn State came in averaging .88 shots/possession. In this one, they had only .72. Shots/possession generally rises with offensive efficiency, and .72 (even .88) is a fairly low number.

But Penn State’s offense is different than most. In this one, the shots/possession number was lower because they shot so much better than normal (50% vs 43%). Penn State only took 26 shots in this game, but they made such a high percentage that there were very few chances for a back-up or a rebound. And of course, in this situation, that is a very good thing.

Season Comparison

Ohio State SeasonSeason-To-Datevs. Penn StateOff. Efficiency29.4%22.9%Shooting Pct36%22%Faceoff %60.4%52.2%Turnover%34%34%T.O.P.53%57%Possession Length43.358.2Time to First Shot38.537.5Shots/Possession0.861.06

I still don’t think we really have a grasp for who Ohio State was. It seemed like they were playing in a different dimension early in the season. Then the weird snow-out happened.

Over last two games, we’ve gotten a sense that Ohio State is not, perhaps, a top-5 team this year. But it would be somewhat unfair to completely write them off after 2 games, in the same way it wouldn’t have been wise to crown them after their 7-0 start.

Still, the numbers can help us to diagnose what Ohio State might need to do to get back to their winning ways. And it’s clearly an offensive issue. The defense did hold PSU to just 13 goals after all.

If I had to point to one area, it would be shooting. I noted above that Kneese had a great outing, stopping 14 Ohio State shots in total. This is a different game, especially coming out of halftime, if a few more of Ohio State’s shots had found net. If they’d shot their season average of 36%, they’d have been right in this one.

Quarter Breakdown

Penn State: Quarter BreakdownQ1Q2Q3Q4Goals3433Shots3977Possessions71298Offensive Efficiency42.9%33.3%33.3%37.5%Shooting %100%44%43%43%Turnover Rate28.6%33.3%11.1%37.5%Shots-on-Goal %100%67%100%57%Time-of-Possession27%51%38%58%Faceoff Win Rate14%83%43%67%Time/Possession36.3s38.9s38.2s61.6sTime to First Shot31.7s36.7s45.1s55.8sShots per Possession0.430.750.780.88Defensive Efficiency33.3%11.1%27.3%16.7%Save Pct62.5%66.7%57.1%75.0%

I noted on Twitter that the 4th quarter was a, shall we say, deliberate one for Penn State. The numbers changed a bit once the official game logs were posted, but the net effect is the same. Penn State’s average 4th quarter possession lasted a whopping 61.6 seconds.

The thing that made this so interesting to me was that their offensive efficiency didn’t suffer; they were still at 38%. That tends to be the trade-off with respect to clock-milking. Teams that want to slow the game and wind clock have a hard time getting into an effective offensive set at the end. Not Penn State.

To me, this is one of the single biggest reasons that their offense has been so effective. They seem to have the ability to kill clock AND still get good chances. Scary thought for any team that should find themselves looking up at a Nittany Lions lead.

Quarter Breakdown

Ohio State: Quarter BreakdownQ1Q2Q3Q4Goals3131Shots127108Possessions99116Offensive Efficiency33.3%11.1%27.3%16.7%Shooting %25%14%30%12%Turnover Rate22.2%33.3%27.3%66.7%Shots-on-Goal %67%43%70%50%Time-of-Possession73%49%62%42%Faceoff Win Rate86%17%57%33%Time/Possession74.9s50.1s50.1s60.0sTime to First Shot46.9s42.7s26.9s31.8sShots per Possession1.330.780.911.33Defensive Efficiency42.9%33.3%33.3%37.5%Save Pct0.0%33.3%57.1%25.0%

On the off chance that OSU meets Penn State again this year, they should prepare by only watching game-film from the 1st and 3rd quarters. In those two frames, the Buckeyes played Penn State to a 6-6 tie. (They lost the 2nd and 4th quarters by a combined 7-2 margin.)

The big thing that stands out there was the FO win rate. They ended up with a 4-possession advantage in the 1st and 3rd quarters compared to a 5-possession disadvantage the rest of the way. Simply put, getting extra possessions allowed Ohio State to negate some of the built-in advantages that the Penn State squad brings to all their games.

If they were to meet again, look for Ohio State to find ways to generate extra possessions, especially if they aren’t able to do it via the face-off game.

Let’s talk about Grant Ament

Stats: Grant AmentQ1Q2Q3Q4TotalGoals00022Assists13206Shots01034Shots on Goal00022Shooting PctN/A0%N/A67%50%Groundballs00000Turnovers00000EGA0.501.711.002.265.48

I think Grant Ament’s ankle is ok. Add another 6 assists to his season total. As I pointed out above, Ohio State enjoyed a possession advantage in the 1st and 3rd quarters. Perhaps it is not surprising that the 2nd and 4th quarters were when Ament really did his damage.

Best way to hang with Penn State: keep the ball out of their offense’s stick.

Let’s talk about Cole Willard

Stats: Cole WillardQ1Q2Q3Q4TotalGoals10113Assists00000Shots10113Shots on Goal10113Shooting Pct100%N/A100%100%100%Groundballs00000Turnovers00000EGA1.020.001.021.023.07

Talk about the model of efficiency. I wanted to include Willard here because of the absurdity of how clean his stat line was. 3 shots, 3 goals, no assists, no, turnovers, no GBs. Literally, all he did was score goals. And they were all unassisted.

This year, Willard hasn’t ranked in the top 5 of Penn State’s offensive stable, in terms of total EGA. Maybe he needs a bigger role?

 Q1Q2Q3Q4TotalOhio State31318Penn State343313
Win Prob.Ohio StatePenn State

Tale of the Tape

Ohio StatePenn StateGoals813Shots3726Shots on Goal2220Possessions3536Groundballs168Saves714Save%35%64%Shooting Pct22%50%Faceoffs1211Faceoff %52.2%47.8%Turnovers1210Turnover%34%28%

Everyone has a little bit to like about Penn State’s win. 64% save percentage suggests that Kneese and the defense were on point. Arceri held tough against Justin Inacio at x. The offense continued is world-beating ways with a 50% shooting rate and fairly miniscule 28% turnover rate.

Season Comparison

Season-To-Datevs. Ohio StateOff. Efficiency37.3%36.1%Shooting Pct43%50%Faceoff %58.1%47.8%Turnover%34%28%T.O.P.53%43%Possession Length36.243.3Time to First Shot36.742.7Shots/Possession0.880.72

This was a good example of why fewer shots/possession can be a good thing. Penn State came in averaging .88 shots/possession. In this one, they had only .72. Shots/possession generally rises with offensive efficiency, and .72 (even .88) is a fairly low number.

But Penn State’s offense is different than most. In this one, the shots/possession number was lower because they shot so much better than normal (50% vs 43%). Penn State only took 26 shots in this game, but they made such a high percentage that there were very few chances for a back-up or a rebound. And of course, in this situation, that is a very good thing.

Season Comparison

Season-To-Datevs. Penn StateOff. Efficiency29.4%22.9%Shooting Pct36%22%Faceoff %60.4%52.2%Turnover%34%34%T.O.P.53%57%Possession Length43.358.2Time to First Shot38.537.5Shots/Possession0.861.06

I still don’t think we really have a grasp for who Ohio State was. It seemed like they were playing in a different dimension early in the season. Then the weird snow-out happened.

Over last two games, we’ve gotten a sense that Ohio State is not, perhaps, a top-5 team this year. But it would be somewhat unfair to completely write them off after 2 games, in the same way it wouldn’t have been wise to crown them after their 7-0 start.

Still, the numbers can help us to diagnose what Ohio State might need to do to get back to their winning ways. And it’s clearly an offensive issue. The defense did hold PSU to just 13 goals after all.

If I had to point to one area, it would be shooting. I noted above that Kneese had a great outing, stopping 14 Ohio State shots in total. This is a different game, especially coming out of halftime, if a few more of Ohio State’s shots had found net. If they’d shot their season average of 36%, they’d have been right in this one.

Quarter Breakdown

Penn State: Quarter BreakdownQ1Q2Q3Q4Goals3433Shots3977Possessions71298Offensive Efficiency42.9%33.3%33.3%37.5%Shooting %100%44%43%43%Turnover Rate28.6%33.3%11.1%37.5%Shots-on-Goal %100%67%100%57%Time-of-Possession27%51%38%58%Faceoff Win Rate14%83%43%67%Time/Possession36.3s38.9s38.2s61.6sTime to First Shot31.7s36.7s45.1s55.8sShots per Possession0.430.750.780.88Defensive Efficiency33.3%11.1%27.3%16.7%Save Pct62.5%66.7%57.1%75.0%

I noted on Twitter that the 4th quarter was a, shall we say, deliberate one for Penn State. The numbers changed a bit once the official game logs were posted, but the net effect is the same. Penn State’s average 4th quarter possession lasted a whopping 61.6 seconds.

The thing that made this so interesting to me was that their offensive efficiency didn’t suffer; they were still at 38%. That tends to be the trade-off with respect to clock-milking. Teams that want to slow the game and wind clock have a hard time getting into an effective offensive set at the end. Not Penn State.

To me, this is one of the single biggest reasons that their offense has been so effective. They seem to have the ability to kill clock AND still get good chances. Scary thought for any team that should find themselves looking up at a Nittany Lions lead.

Quarter Breakdown

Ohio State: Quarter BreakdownQ1Q2Q3Q4Goals3131Shots127108Possessions99116Offensive Efficiency33.3%11.1%27.3%16.7%Shooting %25%14%30%12%Turnover Rate22.2%33.3%27.3%66.7%Shots-on-Goal %67%43%70%50%Time-of-Possession73%49%62%42%Faceoff Win Rate86%17%57%33%Time/Possession74.9s50.1s50.1s60.0sTime to First Shot46.9s42.7s26.9s31.8sShots per Possession1.330.780.911.33Defensive Efficiency42.9%33.3%33.3%37.5%Save Pct0.0%33.3%57.1%25.0%

On the off chance that OSU meets Penn State again this year, they should prepare by only watching game-film from the 1st and 3rd quarters. In those two frames, the Buckeyes played Penn State to a 6-6 tie. (They lost the 2nd and 4th quarters by a combined 7-2 margin.)

The big thing that stands out there was the FO win rate. They ended up with a 4-possession advantage in the 1st and 3rd quarters compared to a 5-possession disadvantage the rest of the way. Simply put, getting extra possessions allowed Ohio State to negate some of the built-in advantages that the Penn State squad brings to all their games.

If they were to meet again, look for Ohio State to find ways to generate extra possessions, especially if they aren’t able to do it via the face-off game.

Let’s talk about Grant Ament

 Q1Q2Q3Q4TotalGoals00022Assists13206Shots01034Shots on Goal00022Shooting PctN/A0%N/A67%50%Groundballs00000Turnovers00000EGA0.501.711.002.265.48

I think Grant Ament’s ankle is ok. Add another 6 assists to his season total. As I pointed out above, Ohio State enjoyed a possession advantage in the 1st and 3rd quarters. Perhaps it is not surprising that the 2nd and 4th quarters were when Ament really did his damage.

Best way to hang with Penn State: keep the ball out of their offense’s stick.

Let’s talk about Cole Willard

 Q1Q2Q3Q4TotalGoals10113Assists00000Shots10113Shots on Goal10113Shooting Pct100%N/A100%100%100%Groundballs00000Turnovers00000EGA1.020.001.021.023.07

Talk about the model of efficiency. I wanted to include Willard here because of the absurdity of how clean his stat line was. 3 shots, 3 goals, no assists, no, turnovers, no GBs. Literally, all he did was score goals. And they were all unassisted.

This year, Willard hasn’t ranked in the top 5 of Penn State’s offensive stable, in terms of total EGA. Maybe he needs a bigger role?

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