Our quantitative way to highlight the best games of a busy slate. See below for the explainer.
Game of Interest #1NavyColgate1611LaxWP Game PageColgate scored with 3:46 left in Q3 to take an 11-9 lead. That was the low point for Navy as far as win probability is concerned.
From that point though, the Mids came storming back, scoring the last 7 goals of the game to eventually claim a somewhat lop-sided victory.
The Navy offense was something of a revelation in this one, putting up a 39% efficiency mark against a Colgate defense that came in allowing goal on only 22.7% of their possessions.
Greyson Torain led the Mids with 8 points and an impressive 6.22 EGA mark. The performance bumps him up to #46 nationally in terms of cumulative EGA (among offensive players).Tension Game Score: 81★ ★The tension game score for this game was 81, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Navy Min. Win Probability: 11%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Navy had at any point during the game was 11.5%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 45★ ★The victory means a transfer of 45 Lax-ELO points from Colgate to Navy. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Navy moves from 45th to 37th nationally; Colgate goes from 40th to 49th.Game Stars
Navy
Greyson Torain
6.22 EGA
Ryan Wade
3.85 EGA
Nick Barry
3.43 EGA
Colgate
Malcolm Feeney
4.39 EGA
Griffin Brown
3.06 EGA
Brian Minicus
2.93 EGA
Game of Interest #1NavyColgate1611LaxWP Game PageColgate scored with 3:46 left in Q3 to take an 11-9 lead. That was the low point for Navy as far as win probability is concerned.
From that point though, the Mids came storming back, scoring the last 7 goals of the game to eventually claim a somewhat lop-sided victory.
The Navy offense was something of a revelation in this one, putting up a 39% efficiency mark against a Colgate defense that came in allowing goal on only 22.7% of their possessions.
Greyson Torain led the Mids with 8 points and an impressive 6.22 EGA mark. The performance bumps him up to #46 nationally in terms of cumulative EGA (among offensive players).Tension Game Score: 81★ ★The tension game score for this game was 81, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Navy Min. Win Probability: 11%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Navy had at any point during the game was 11.5%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 45★ ★The victory means a transfer of 45 Lax-ELO points from Colgate to Navy. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Navy moves from 45th to 37th nationally; Colgate goes from 40th to 49th.
Game of Interest #2MassachusettsHofstra910LaxWP Game PageDisappointing result for the Minutemen, which snapped their 6-game winning streak. Hofstra did more with less in this one. The Pride won just 30% of the faceoffs, but managed to generate a lot of second chances on offense.
Coming in, they’d averaged just .84 shots per possession. In this one, that figure was 1.08. Since they shot about as well as they have all year (25% vs 24% coming in), those extra chances ended up as extra goals.
For UMass, uncharacteristic sloppiness was the key culprit. They committed turnovers on nearly half of their offensive possessions. That negated a big faceoff advantage and gave the Pride a chance to complete the comeback.Tension Game Score: 70★ ★The tension game score for this game was 70, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Hofstra Min. Win Probability: 0%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Hofstra had at any point during the game was 0.3%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 15★The victory means a transfer of 15 Lax-ELO points from UMass to Hofstra. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Massachusetts moves from 7th to 10th nationally; Hofstra goes from 49th to 47th.Game Stars
Hofstra
Ryan Tierney
8.02 EGA
Dylan Mcintosh
1.86 EGA
Brian Herber
1.64 EGA
UMass
Tom Meyers
3.87 EGA
Chris Connolly
2.51 EGA
Isaac Paparo
2.37 EGA
Game of Interest #2MassachusettsHofstra910LaxWP Game PageDisappointing result for the Minutemen, which snapped their 6-game winning streak. Hofstra did more with less in this one. The Pride won just 30% of the faceoffs, but managed to generate a lot of second chances on offense.
Coming in, they’d averaged just .84 shots per possession. In this one, that figure was 1.08. Since they shot about as well as they have all year (25% vs 24% coming in), those extra chances ended up as extra goals.
For UMass, uncharacteristic sloppiness was the key culprit. They committed turnovers on nearly half of their offensive possessions. That negated a big faceoff advantage and gave the Pride a chance to complete the comeback.Tension Game Score: 70★ ★The tension game score for this game was 70, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Hofstra Min. Win Probability: 0%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Hofstra had at any point during the game was 0.3%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 15★The victory means a transfer of 15 Lax-ELO points from UMass to Hofstra. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Massachusetts moves from 7th to 10th nationally; Hofstra goes from 49th to 47th.
Game of Interest #3AlbanyVermont910LaxWP Game PageWhen the Great Danes scored to go up 9-8 with just under 6 minutes left in Q4, our win probability model gave them a roughly 63% chance to win the game.
Of course, as you can see from the final score, the lead did not hold up. Vermont scored the final two goals to emerge with the 10-9 victory. The win keeps them firmly in the mix for the America East title.
This was a defensive slugfest for two teams better known for offensive prowess in recent years. Both teams’ offenses ended up with total efficiency marks that were 4% percentage points worse than their normal output. Sometimes, when you see that, turnovers are to blame. Not in this one.
Both defensive coordinators probably walked away feeling pretty good about their units. But UVM’s probably felt better.Tension Game Score: 53★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 53, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Vermont Min. Win Probability: 9%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Vermont had at any point during the game was 9.1%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 8★The victory means a transfer of 8 Lax-ELO points from Albany to Vermont. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Albany moves from 20th to 23rd nationally; Vermont goes from 25th to 24th.Game Stars
Vermont
Sal Iaria
3.69 EGA
Thomas Mcconvey
3.48 EGA
David Closterman
3.1 EGA
Albany
Tehoka Nanticoke
2.49 EGA
Jakob Patterson
2.21 EGA
Sean Eccles
1.95 EGA
Game of Interest #3AlbanyVermont910LaxWP Game PageWhen the Great Danes scored to go up 9-8 with just under 6 minutes left in Q4, our win probability model gave them a roughly 63% chance to win the game.
Of course, as you can see from the final score, the lead did not hold up. Vermont scored the final two goals to emerge with the 10-9 victory. The win keeps them firmly in the mix for the America East title.
This was a defensive slugfest for two teams better known for offensive prowess in recent years. Both teams’ offenses ended up with total efficiency marks that were 4% percentage points worse than their normal output. Sometimes, when you see that, turnovers are to blame. Not in this one.
Both defensive coordinators probably walked away feeling pretty good about their units. But UVM’s probably felt better.Tension Game Score: 53★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 53, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Vermont Min. Win Probability: 9%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Vermont had at any point during the game was 9.1%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 8★The victory means a transfer of 8 Lax-ELO points from Albany to Vermont. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Albany moves from 20th to 23rd nationally; Vermont goes from 25th to 24th.
Game of Interest #4Mount St MarysUtah1615LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 68★ ★The tension game score for this game was 68, which indicates an fairly close battle.Mount St Marys Min. Win Probability: 11%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Mount St Marys had at any point during the game was 11.1%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 17★The victory means a transfer of 17 Lax-ELO points from Utah to Mount St Marys. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Mount St Marys moves from 48th to 44th nationally; Utah goes from 50th to 52nd.Game Stars
Utah
Jimmy Perkins
3.19 EGA
James Sexton
2.56 EGA
Jake Cantlon
1.44 EGA
Mount St Marys
Jack Mangan
2.34 EGA
Chris Dipretoro
2.2 EGA
Brenden Mccarthy
1.83 EGA
Game of Interest #4Mount St MarysUtah1615LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 68★ ★The tension game score for this game was 68, which indicates an fairly close battle.Mount St Marys Min. Win Probability: 11%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Mount St Marys had at any point during the game was 11.1%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 17★The victory means a transfer of 17 Lax-ELO points from Utah to Mount St Marys. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Mount St Marys moves from 48th to 44th nationally; Utah goes from 50th to 52nd.
Game of Interest #5North CarolinaVirginia1011LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 41★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 41, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Virginia Min. Win Probability: 18%★ ★The lowest win probability that Virginia had at any point during the game was 18.7%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 6★The victory means a transfer of 6 Lax-ELO points from North Carolina to Virginia. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), North Carolina moves from 23rd to 26th nationally; Virginia goes from 10th to 12th.Game Stars
Virginia
Michael Kraus
7.15 EGA
Matt Moore
4.34 EGA
Petey Lasalla
3.57 EGA
North Carolina
Timmy Kelly
2.24 EGA
Nicky Solomon
1.91 EGA
Alex Trippi
1.57 EGA
Game of Interest #5North CarolinaVirginia1011LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 41★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 41, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Virginia Min. Win Probability: 18%★ ★The lowest win probability that Virginia had at any point during the game was 18.7%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 6★The victory means a transfer of 6 Lax-ELO points from North Carolina to Virginia. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), North Carolina moves from 23rd to 26th nationally; Virginia goes from 10th to 12th.
Game of Interest #6Hobart and WilliamSaint Joseph’s1112LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 58★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 58, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Saint Joseph’s Min. Win Probability: 12%★ ★The lowest win probability that Saint Joseph’s had at any point during the game was 12.5%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 10★The victory means a transfer of 10 Lax-ELO points from Hobart to Saint Joseph’s. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Hobart and William moves from 26th to 29th nationally; Saint Joseph’s goes from 38th to 35th.Game Stars
Saint Joseph’s
Zach Cole
4.2 EGA
Ryan Doran
3.04 EGA
Nate Patterson
2.56 EGA
Hobart
Chris Aslanian
2.84 EGA
Justin Scott
2.61 EGA
Eric Holden
2.48 EGA
Game of Interest #6Hobart and WilliamSaint Joseph’s1112LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 58★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 58, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Saint Joseph’s Min. Win Probability: 12%★ ★The lowest win probability that Saint Joseph’s had at any point during the game was 12.5%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 10★The victory means a transfer of 10 Lax-ELO points from Hobart to Saint Joseph’s. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Hobart and William moves from 26th to 29th nationally; Saint Joseph’s goes from 38th to 35th.
Game of Interest #7Boston UArmy1513LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 94★ ★The tension game score for this game was 94, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Boston U Min. Win Probability: 12%★ ★The lowest win probability that Boston U had at any point during the game was 12.4%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 28★ ★The victory means a transfer of 28 Lax-ELO points from Army to Boston U. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Boston U moves from 22nd to 18th nationally; Army goes from 14th to 21st.Game Stars
Boston U
Jake Cates
5.06 EGA
Sean Christman
4.7 EGA
Chris Gray
3.39 EGA
Army
Brendan Nichtern
5.1 EGA
Matt Manown
2.77 EGA
Miles Silva
2.21 EGA
Game of Interest #7Boston UArmy1513LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 94★ ★The tension game score for this game was 94, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Boston U Min. Win Probability: 12%★ ★The lowest win probability that Boston U had at any point during the game was 12.4%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 28★ ★The victory means a transfer of 28 Lax-ELO points from Army to Boston U. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Boston U moves from 22nd to 18th nationally; Army goes from 14th to 21st.
When we are blessed with a day in which the slate of games numbers in the dozens, it is all but impossible to really keep track of all the goings on in D1 lacrosse. So we decided to put out a daily digest of the day that was. The idea here is to use some metrics that we can calculate for each game as a way to highlight the most meaningful or interesting matchups.
To rank games, we will be using three values:
Tension Game Score – a measure of how tight the game was. A back-and-forth match up where neither team is able to take control is going to have a lower tension score (i.e. smaller gap between the teams).
Min. Win Probability – the lowest win probability value that our model ascribed to the eventual winner during the course of the game. A game where the winner had to make a huge comeback is probably going to have a very low win probability (think about the moment that it seemed least likely that they’d come back).
Lax-ELO Transfer – a measure of how much an intridual game did to make us re-assess how good a certain team was. In a game where a favorite beats the underdog by as much as we thought they would, you don’t really update your priors about how good each team is. Those games would also transfer a relatively small number of Lax-ELO points.
We will present the metrics for each game, along with a star-based indicator to tell you how common or uncommon that outcome is. For example, a game in which the winning team had a win probability in the single digits is a rare occurence and would get 3 stars in that category.
We welcome your feedback, and we hope that this helps you to distill down the craziness of a full lacrosse slate into a more digestible list of highlights.