Daily Digest: Mar 30, 2019
Daily Digest: Mar 30, 2019
Our quantitative way to highlight the best games of a busy slate. See below for the explainer.
Game of Interest #1
Detroit
Marist1211LaxWP Game PageThe Titans snagged the game-of-the-day (according to the model) title with a come-from-behind victory over Marist. Detroit was down 3 with ten minutes to go, but they stormed back to score the final 4 goals to take this one.
DetroitMarist1211LaxWP Game PageThe Titans snagged the game-of-the-day (according to the model) title with a come-from-behind victory over Marist. Detroit was down 3 with ten minutes to go, but they stormed back to score the final 4 goals to take this one. It largely seems like the result of a frantic push that Marist couldn’t stand up to. In the last 10 minutes Detroit took 2 full shots per possession (average is a little more than 1), which tells me that they were doing a great job of backing up shots and grabbing rebounds.
They also flipped the switch on face-offs, winning the last 4 after going 8 of 23 to start the game.
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Game of Interest #1DetroitMarist1211LaxWP Game PageThe Titans snagged the game-of-the-day (according to the model) title with a come-from-behind victory over Marist. Detroit was down 3 with ten minutes to go, but they stormed back to score the final 4 goals to take this one.
DetroitMarist1211LaxWP Game PageThe Titans snagged the game-of-the-day (according to the model) title with a come-from-behind victory over Marist. Detroit was down 3 with ten minutes to go, but they stormed back to score the final 4 goals to take this one. It largely seems like the result of a frantic push that Marist couldn’t stand up to. In the last 10 minutes Detroit took 2 full shots per possession (average is a little more than 1), which tells me that they were doing a great job of backing up shots and grabbing rebounds.
They also flipped the switch on face-offs, winning the last 4 after going 8 of 23 to start the game.
Game of Interest #2
Brown
Princeton1410LaxWP Game PageEmotional let-down after the big win over their former coach? Hard to argue with that assessment.
BrownPrinceton1410LaxWP Game PageEmotional let-down after the big win over their former coach? Hard to argue with that assessment.Tough outing for Princeton after knocking off Denver in a mid-week game last week. Ryan Aughavin had the top stat line for Brown in helping the Bears take down the Tigers. Ivy League is fun this year.
Tension Game Score: 90★ ★The tension game score for this game was 90, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Brown Min. Win Probability: 13%★ ★The lowest win probability that Brown had at any point during the game was 13%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 41★ ★The victory means a transfer of 41 Lax-ELO points from Princeton to Brown. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Brown moves from 38th to 33rd nationally; Princeton goes from 27th to 35th.Game Stars
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Game of Interest #2BrownPrinceton1410LaxWP Game PageEmotional let-down after the big win over their former coach? Hard to argue with that assessment.
BrownPrinceton1410LaxWP Game PageEmotional let-down after the big win over their former coach? Hard to argue with that assessment.Tough outing for Princeton after knocking off Denver in a mid-week game last week. Ryan Aughavin had the top stat line for Brown in helping the Bears take down the Tigers. Ivy League is fun this year.
Tension Game Score: 90★ ★The tension game score for this game was 90, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Brown Min. Win Probability: 13%★ ★The lowest win probability that Brown had at any point during the game was 13%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 41★ ★The victory means a transfer of 41 Lax-ELO points from Princeton to Brown. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Brown moves from 38th to 33rd nationally; Princeton goes from 27th to 35th.Game of Interest #3
Yale
Penn1213LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 79★ ★The tension game score for this game was 79, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Penn Min. Win Probability: 0%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Penn had at any point during the game was 0%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 14★The victory means a transfer of 14 Lax-ELO points from Yale to Penn. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Yale moves from 1st to 1st nationally; Penn goes from 22nd to 24th.Game Stars
YalePenn1213LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 79★ ★The tension game score for this game was 79, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Penn Min. Win Probability: 0%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Penn had at any point during the game was 0%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 14★The victory means a transfer of 14 Lax-ELO points from Yale to Penn. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Yale moves from 1st to 1st nationally; Penn goes from 22nd to 24th.Game Stars
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Game of Interest #3YalePenn1213LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 79★ ★The tension game score for this game was 79, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Penn Min. Win Probability: 0%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Penn had at any point during the game was 0%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 14★The victory means a transfer of 14 Lax-ELO points from Yale to Penn. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Yale moves from 1st to 1st nationally; Penn goes from 22nd to 24th.
YalePenn1213LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 79★ ★The tension game score for this game was 79, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Penn Min. Win Probability: 0%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Penn had at any point during the game was 0%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 14★The victory means a transfer of 14 Lax-ELO points from Yale to Penn. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Yale moves from 1st to 1st nationally; Penn goes from 22nd to 24th.Game of Interest #4
Quinnipiac
Siena1310LaxWP Game PageMid-way through the 3rd quarter, Siena had a 9-6 lead over Quinnipiac. QU out-scored them 7-1 the rest of the way to grab the victory.
QuinnipiacSiena1310LaxWP Game PageMid-way through the 3rd quarter, Siena had a 9-6 lead over Quinnipiac. QU out-scored them 7-1 the rest of the way to grab the victory.The defense keyed the turn-around. In building their lead, Siena turned the ball over on 22% of their possessions. In losing the lead, that figure was 60%. 60!!!
The Quinnipiac offense picked it up too. They didn’t play faster, but they shot better (17% vs 58% during the comeback). All of it added up to a big come-from-behind win.
Tension Game Score: 93★The tension game score for this game was 93, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Quinnipiac Min. Win Probability: 7%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Quinnipiac had at any point during the game was 7%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 32★ ★The victory means a transfer of 32 Lax-ELO points from Siena to Quinnipiac. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Quinnipiac moves from 35th to 31st nationally; Siena goes from 54th to 58th.Game Stars
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Game of Interest #4QuinnipiacSiena1310LaxWP Game PageMid-way through the 3rd quarter, Siena had a 9-6 lead over Quinnipiac. QU out-scored them 7-1 the rest of the way to grab the victory.
QuinnipiacSiena1310LaxWP Game PageMid-way through the 3rd quarter, Siena had a 9-6 lead over Quinnipiac. QU out-scored them 7-1 the rest of the way to grab the victory.The defense keyed the turn-around. In building their lead, Siena turned the ball over on 22% of their possessions. In losing the lead, that figure was 60%. 60!!!
The Quinnipiac offense picked it up too. They didn’t play faster, but they shot better (17% vs 58% during the comeback). All of it added up to a big come-from-behind win.
Tension Game Score: 93★The tension game score for this game was 93, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Quinnipiac Min. Win Probability: 7%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Quinnipiac had at any point during the game was 7%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 32★ ★The victory means a transfer of 32 Lax-ELO points from Siena to Quinnipiac. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Quinnipiac moves from 35th to 31st nationally; Siena goes from 54th to 58th.Game of Interest #5
Bellarmine
Mercer1613LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 86★ ★The tension game score for this game was 86, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Bellarmine Min. Win Probability: 20%★ ★The lowest win probability that Bellarmine had at any point during the game was 20%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 34★ ★The victory means a transfer of 34 Lax-ELO points from Mercer to Bellarmine. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Bellarmine moves from 67th to 65th nationally; Mercer goes from 66th to 69th.Game Stars
BellarmineMercer1613LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 86★ ★The tension game score for this game was 86, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Bellarmine Min. Win Probability: 20%★ ★The lowest win probability that Bellarmine had at any point during the game was 20%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 34★ ★The victory means a transfer of 34 Lax-ELO points from Mercer to Bellarmine. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Bellarmine moves from 67th to 65th nationally; Mercer goes from 66th to 69th.Game Stars
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Game of Interest #5BellarmineMercer1613LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 86★ ★The tension game score for this game was 86, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Bellarmine Min. Win Probability: 20%★ ★The lowest win probability that Bellarmine had at any point during the game was 20%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 34★ ★The victory means a transfer of 34 Lax-ELO points from Mercer to Bellarmine. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Bellarmine moves from 67th to 65th nationally; Mercer goes from 66th to 69th.
BellarmineMercer1613LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 86★ ★The tension game score for this game was 86, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Bellarmine Min. Win Probability: 20%★ ★The lowest win probability that Bellarmine had at any point during the game was 20%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 34★ ★The victory means a transfer of 34 Lax-ELO points from Mercer to Bellarmine. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Bellarmine moves from 67th to 65th nationally; Mercer goes from 66th to 69th.When we are blessed with a day in which the slate of games numbers in the dozens, it is all but impossible to really keep track of all the goings on in D1 lacrosse. So we decided to put out a daily digest of the day that was. The idea here is to use some metrics that we can calculate for each game as a way to highlight the most meaningful or interesting matchups.
To rank games, we will be using three values:
- Tension Game Score – a measure of how tight the game was. A back-and-forth match up where neither team is able to take control is going to have a lower tension score (i.e. smaller gap between the teams).
- Min. Win Probability – the lowest win probability value that our model ascribed to the eventual winner during the course of the game. A game where the winner had to make a huge comeback is probably going to have a very low win probability (think about the moment that it seemed least likely that they’d come back).
- Lax-ELO Transfer – a measure of how much an intridual game did to make us re-assess how good a certain team was. In a game where a favorite beats the underdog by as much as we thought they would, you don’t really update your priors about how good each team is. Those games would also transfer a relatively small number of Lax-ELO points.
We will present the metrics for each game, along with a star-based indicator to tell you how common or uncommon that outcome is. For example, a game in which the winning team had a win probability in the single digits is a rare occurence and would get 3 stars in that category.
We welcome your feedback, and we hope that this helps you to distill down the craziness of a full lacrosse slate into a more digestible list of highlights.
