Our quantitative way to highlight the best games of a busy slate. See below for the explainer.
Game of Interest #1RutgersSyracuse1418LaxWP Game PageTight game through about 51 minutes and then Syracuse just took the air out of the game. They had possession for 6:53 of the final 8:31. While Syracuse was scoring 5 straight goals, Rutgers only had 2 possessions.
Interestingly, Syracuse was able to combine a very methodical pace with a very efficient offense and a dominating FOGO to take this one. Scary combination for the rest of D1 if that continues.Tension Game Score: 73★ ★The tension game score for this game was 73, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Syracuse Min. Win Probability: 5%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Syracuse had at any point during the game was 5%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 18★The victory means a transfer of 18 Lax-ELO points from Rutgers to Syracuse. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Rutgers moves from 21st to 27th nationally; Syracuse goes from 26th to 20th.Game Stars
Syracuse
Nate Solomon
4.61 EGA
Brendan Curry
4.14 EGA
Jamie Trimboli
3.86 EGA
Rutgers
Adam Charalambides
5.52 EGA
Kieran Mullins
5.03 EGA
Casey Rose
3.15 EGA
Game of Interest #1RutgersSyracuse1418LaxWP Game PageTight game through about 51 minutes and then Syracuse just took the air out of the game. They had possession for 6:53 of the final 8:31. While Syracuse was scoring 5 straight goals, Rutgers only had 2 possessions.
Interestingly, Syracuse was able to combine a very methodical pace with a very efficient offense and a dominating FOGO to take this one. Scary combination for the rest of D1 if that continues.Tension Game Score: 73★ ★The tension game score for this game was 73, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Syracuse Min. Win Probability: 5%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Syracuse had at any point during the game was 5%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 18★The victory means a transfer of 18 Lax-ELO points from Rutgers to Syracuse. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Rutgers moves from 21st to 27th nationally; Syracuse goes from 26th to 20th.
Game of Interest #2JacksonvilleBellarmine118LaxWP Game PageJacksonville came into this season with some fairly sky-high expectations. Expectations that have not played out, partly because of how difficult their schedule has turned out to be.
Don’t be surprised if this is the start of a run in the SoCon for the Dolphins. The opponent-adjusted metrics like them a lot more than the record would indicate.Tension Game Score: 73★ ★The tension game score for this game was 73, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Jacksonville Min. Win Probability: 36%★The lowest win probability that Jacksonville had at any point during the game was 36%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 34★ ★The victory means a transfer of 34 Lax-ELO points from Bellarmine to Jacksonville. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Jacksonville moves from 60th to 56th nationally; Bellarmine goes from 64th to 67th.Game Stars
Jacksonville
Evan Tyler
3.39 EGA
Jack Dolan
2.26 EGA
Alec Drosos
2.23 EGA
Bellarmine
Landon Trout
3.71 EGA
Turner Lockyear
3.09 EGA
Riley Seay
2.48 EGA
Game of Interest #2JacksonvilleBellarmine118LaxWP Game PageJacksonville came into this season with some fairly sky-high expectations. Expectations that have not played out, partly because of how difficult their schedule has turned out to be.
Don’t be surprised if this is the start of a run in the SoCon for the Dolphins. The opponent-adjusted metrics like them a lot more than the record would indicate.Tension Game Score: 73★ ★The tension game score for this game was 73, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Jacksonville Min. Win Probability: 36%★The lowest win probability that Jacksonville had at any point during the game was 36%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 34★ ★The victory means a transfer of 34 Lax-ELO points from Bellarmine to Jacksonville. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Jacksonville moves from 60th to 56th nationally; Bellarmine goes from 64th to 67th.
Game of Interest #3Notre DameVirginia1113LaxWP Game PageRead our RecapWe went through this game in more detail (check out the Recap via the link below), but it was really a case of Jekyll/Hyde for Notre Dame.
For 41 minutes, they dominated this one. For 19 minutes, they got dominated. Unfortunately for ND, they didn’t rack up a big enough margin during their period of domination and the Cavs were able to come away with a big comeback victory.Tension Game Score: 94★The tension game score for this game was 94, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Virginia Min. Win Probability: 4%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Virginia had at any point during the game was 4%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 15★The victory means a transfer of 15 Lax-ELO points from Notre Dame to Virginia. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Notre Dame moves from 12th to 14th nationally; Virginia goes from 25th to 23rd.Game Stars
Virginia
Matt Moore
4.15 EGA
Dox Aitken
3.96 EGA
Ryan Conrad
3.63 EGA
Notre Dame
Charles Leonard
5.62 EGA
Wheaton Jackoboice
2.56 EGA
Brian Willetts
2.46 EGA
Game of Interest #3Notre DameVirginia1113LaxWP Game PageRead our RecapWe went through this game in more detail (check out the Recap via the link below), but it was really a case of Jekyll/Hyde for Notre Dame.
For 41 minutes, they dominated this one. For 19 minutes, they got dominated. Unfortunately for ND, they didn’t rack up a big enough margin during their period of domination and the Cavs were able to come away with a big comeback victory.Tension Game Score: 94★The tension game score for this game was 94, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Virginia Min. Win Probability: 4%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Virginia had at any point during the game was 4%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 15★The victory means a transfer of 15 Lax-ELO points from Notre Dame to Virginia. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Notre Dame moves from 12th to 14th nationally; Virginia goes from 25th to 23rd.
Game of Interest #4BryantMount St Marys710LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 68★ ★The tension game score for this game was 68, which indicates an fairly close battle.Mount St Marys Min. Win Probability: 31%★The lowest win probability that Mount St Marys had at any point during the game was 31%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 22★The victory means a transfer of 22 Lax-ELO points from Bryant to Mount St Marys. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Bryant moves from 42nd to 44th nationally; Mount St Marys goes from 55th to 55th.Game Stars
Mount St Marys
Sam Stephan
3.66 EGA
Joe Bethke
2.48 EGA
Luke Frankeny
2.42 EGA
Bryant
Marc O’Rourke
3.41 EGA
James Stoler
3.31 EGA
Mason Balch
2.46 EGA
Game of Interest #4BryantMount St Marys710LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 68★ ★The tension game score for this game was 68, which indicates an fairly close battle.Mount St Marys Min. Win Probability: 31%★The lowest win probability that Mount St Marys had at any point during the game was 31%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 22★The victory means a transfer of 22 Lax-ELO points from Bryant to Mount St Marys. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Bryant moves from 42nd to 44th nationally; Mount St Marys goes from 55th to 55th.
Game of Interest #5DelawareJohns Hopkins1012LaxWP Game PageReally good one here between the blue East Coast bird species. It was your classic game of runs. Hopkins scored to go up 8-6 with 3:30 left in Q3. Delaware scored the next 4 goals to go up 10-8 with 8:38 left in Q4. At the height of the run, the Blue Hens win probability stood at just about 90%.
But then Hopkins rolled off the next 4 goals to end the game with a two-goal victory. Delaware has been a top-5 defense this season, so the Hopkins’ runs are nothing to sneeze at.Tension Game Score: 74★ ★The tension game score for this game was 74, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Johns Hopkins Min. Win Probability: 11%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Johns Hopkins had at any point during the game was 11%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 11★The victory means a transfer of 11 Lax-ELO points from Delaware to Johns Hopkins. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Delaware moves from 23rd to 28th nationally; Johns Hopkins goes from 23rd to 21st.Game Stars
Johns Hopkins
Kyle Marr
4.32 EGA
Kyle Prouty
3.67 EGA
Cole Williams
3.47 EGA
Delaware
Joe Eisele
4.25 EGA
Charlie Kitchen
3.22 EGA
Tye Kurtz
2.13 EGA
Game of Interest #5DelawareJohns Hopkins1012LaxWP Game PageReally good one here between the blue East Coast bird species. It was your classic game of runs. Hopkins scored to go up 8-6 with 3:30 left in Q3. Delaware scored the next 4 goals to go up 10-8 with 8:38 left in Q4. At the height of the run, the Blue Hens win probability stood at just about 90%.
But then Hopkins rolled off the next 4 goals to end the game with a two-goal victory. Delaware has been a top-5 defense this season, so the Hopkins’ runs are nothing to sneeze at.Tension Game Score: 74★ ★The tension game score for this game was 74, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Johns Hopkins Min. Win Probability: 11%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Johns Hopkins had at any point during the game was 11%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 11★The victory means a transfer of 11 Lax-ELO points from Delaware to Johns Hopkins. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Delaware moves from 23rd to 28th nationally; Johns Hopkins goes from 23rd to 21st.
Game of Interest #6ArmyHoly Cross76LaxWP Game PageLow scoring affair in this one between Army and Holy Cross. Army currently sits as the #1 defense in the country and the 44th ranked offense, so that is to be expected I suppose.
As a fan though, there is something about a tension filled game where the next goal could be the difference. And that is heightened in a game when scoring chances are available but goals are not. Tension Game Score: 55★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 55, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Army Min. Win Probability: 29%★ ★The lowest win probability that Army had at any point during the game was 29%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 15★The victory means a transfer of 15 Lax-ELO points from Holy Cross to Army. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Army moves from 17th to 17th nationally; Holy Cross goes from 56th to 58th.Game Stars
Army
Miles Silva
3.62 EGA
Nate Jones
3.08 EGA
Brendan Nichtern
0.96 EGA
Holy Cross
Dan O’Connell
4.11 EGA
Kevin Kodzis
3.58 EGA
Justin Lynskey
3.29 EGA
Game of Interest #6ArmyHoly Cross76LaxWP Game PageLow scoring affair in this one between Army and Holy Cross. Army currently sits as the #1 defense in the country and the 44th ranked offense, so that is to be expected I suppose.
As a fan though, there is something about a tension filled game where the next goal could be the difference. And that is heightened in a game when scoring chances are available but goals are not. Tension Game Score: 55★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 55, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Army Min. Win Probability: 29%★ ★The lowest win probability that Army had at any point during the game was 29%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 15★The victory means a transfer of 15 Lax-ELO points from Holy Cross to Army. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Army moves from 17th to 17th nationally; Holy Cross goes from 56th to 58th.
Game of Interest #7Air ForceMercer208LaxWP Game PageThis game makes the list because of what it does to our perceptions of Air Force. 54 ELO points were transferred from Mercer to Air Force in this one. As a result, the Falcons now look like a top-20 team.
Coming off the off-field issues they’ve faced, this is quite a turn-around. Largely thanks to a stellar defense, Air Force has compiled a 5-2 record and looks like they are going to challenge for SoCon supremacy.Tension Game Score: 178★The tension game score for this game was 178, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Air Force Min. Win Probability: 79%★The lowest win probability that Air Force had at any point during the game was 79%, which tells us that the eventual victory was never really in doubt.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 56★ ★ ★The victory means a transfer of 56 Lax-ELO points from Mercer to Air Force. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Air Force moves from 29th to 18th nationally; Mercer goes from 68th to 71st.Game Stars
Air Force
Trey Lervick
6.38 EGA
Trent Harper
4.03 EGA
Cameron Carter
3.41 EGA
Mercer
Sean Goldsmith
2.53 EGA
Michael Quinn
2.1 EGA
Luke Saad
1.92 EGA
Game of Interest #7Air ForceMercer208LaxWP Game PageThis game makes the list because of what it does to our perceptions of Air Force. 54 ELO points were transferred from Mercer to Air Force in this one. As a result, the Falcons now look like a top-20 team.
Coming off the off-field issues they’ve faced, this is quite a turn-around. Largely thanks to a stellar defense, Air Force has compiled a 5-2 record and looks like they are going to challenge for SoCon supremacy.Tension Game Score: 178★The tension game score for this game was 178, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Air Force Min. Win Probability: 79%★The lowest win probability that Air Force had at any point during the game was 79%, which tells us that the eventual victory was never really in doubt.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 56★ ★ ★The victory means a transfer of 56 Lax-ELO points from Mercer to Air Force. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Air Force moves from 29th to 18th nationally; Mercer goes from 68th to 71st.
When we are blessed with a day in which the slate of games numbers in the dozens, it is all but impossible to really keep track of all the goings on in D1 lacrosse. So we decided to put out a daily digest of the day that was. The idea here is to use some metrics that we can calculate for each game as a way to highlight the most meaningful or interesting matchups.
To rank games, we will be using three values:
Tension Game Score – a measure of how tight the game was. A back-and-forth match up where neither team is able to take control is going to have a lower tension score (i.e. smaller gap between the teams).
Min. Win Probability – the lowest win probability value that our model ascribed to the eventual winner during the course of the game. A game where the winner had to make a huge comeback is probably going to have a very low win probability (think about the moment that it seemed least likely that they’d come back).
Lax-ELO Transfer – a measure of how much an intridual game did to make us re-assess how good a certain team was. In a game where a favorite beats the underdog by as much as we thought they would, you don’t really update your priors about how good each team is. Those games would also transfer a relatively small number of Lax-ELO points.
We will present the metrics for each game, along with a star-based indicator to tell you how common or uncommon that outcome is. For example, a game in which the winning team had a win probability in the single digits is a rare occurence and would get 3 stars in that category.
We welcome your feedback, and we hope that this helps you to distill down the craziness of a full lacrosse slate into a more digestible list of highlights.
Rutgers
Syracuse1418LaxWP Game PageTight game through about 51 minutes and then Syracuse just took the air out of the game. They had possession for 6:53 of the final 8:31. While Syracuse was scoring 5 straight goals, Rutgers only had 2 possessions.
Jacksonville
Bellarmine118LaxWP Game PageJacksonville came into this season with some fairly sky-high expectations. Expectations that have not played out, partly because of how difficult their schedule has turned out to be.
Notre Dame
Virginia1113LaxWP Game PageRead our RecapWe went through this game in more detail (check out the Recap via the link below), but it was really a case of Jekyll/Hyde for Notre Dame.
Bryant
Mount St Marys710LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 68★ ★The tension game score for this game was 68, which indicates an fairly close battle.Mount St Marys Min. Win Probability: 31%★The lowest win probability that Mount St Marys had at any point during the game was 31%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 22★The victory means a transfer of 22 Lax-ELO points from Bryant to Mount St Marys. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Bryant moves from 42nd to 44th nationally; Mount St Marys goes from 55th to 55th.Game Stars
Delaware
Johns Hopkins1012LaxWP Game PageReally good one here between the blue East Coast bird species. It was your classic game of runs. Hopkins scored to go up 8-6 with 3:30 left in Q3. Delaware scored the next 4 goals to go up 10-8 with 8:38 left in Q4. At the height of the run, the Blue Hens win probability stood at just about 90%.
Army
Holy Cross76LaxWP Game PageLow scoring affair in this one between Army and Holy Cross. Army currently sits as the #1 defense in the country and the 44th ranked offense, so that is to be expected I suppose.
Air Force
Mercer208LaxWP Game PageThis game makes the list because of what it does to our perceptions of Air Force. 54 ELO points were transferred from Mercer to Air Force in this one. As a result, the Falcons now look like a top-20 team.
