Daily Digest: Mar 12, 2019
Daily Digest: Mar 12, 2019
Our quantitative way to highlight the best games of a busy slate. See below for the explainer.
Game of Interest #1
Lehigh
Rutgers1310LaxWP Game PageRead our RecapThis was billed as one of the top mid-week games of the year, and it did not disappoint. Scarlet Knights and Mountain Hawks gave us a great one. Rutgers had control of this one…until they didn’t. With 3:47 left in Q3, the Scarlet Knights had an 85% win probability.
LehighRutgers1310LaxWP Game PageRead our RecapThis was billed as one of the top mid-week games of the year, and it did not disappoint. Scarlet Knights and Mountain Hawks gave us a great one. Rutgers had control of this one…until they didn’t. With 3:47 left in Q3, the Scarlet Knights had an 85% win probability. Over the last 18:47, Lehigh outscored Rutgers 8-2. Somehow, everything to better for the Mountain Hawks. Their FO % went from 44% to 82%. Their turnover rate dropped from 50% to 33%. They even shot better, improving from 29% to 50%.
Lehigh’s season may depend on how well they can play the rest of the way like they did in the last 19 minutes of this one.
Tension Game Score: 64★ ★The tension game score for this game was 64, which indicates an fairly close battle.Lehigh Min. Win Probability: 6%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Lehigh had at any point during the game was 6%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 35★ ★The victory means a transfer of 35 Lax-ELO points from Rutgers to Lehigh. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Lehigh moves from 28th to 18th nationally; Rutgers goes from 16th to 21st.Game Stars
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Game of Interest #1LehighRutgers1310LaxWP Game PageRead our RecapThis was billed as one of the top mid-week games of the year, and it did not disappoint. Scarlet Knights and Mountain Hawks gave us a great one. Rutgers had control of this one…until they didn’t. With 3:47 left in Q3, the Scarlet Knights had an 85% win probability.
LehighRutgers1310LaxWP Game PageRead our RecapThis was billed as one of the top mid-week games of the year, and it did not disappoint. Scarlet Knights and Mountain Hawks gave us a great one. Rutgers had control of this one…until they didn’t. With 3:47 left in Q3, the Scarlet Knights had an 85% win probability. Over the last 18:47, Lehigh outscored Rutgers 8-2. Somehow, everything to better for the Mountain Hawks. Their FO % went from 44% to 82%. Their turnover rate dropped from 50% to 33%. They even shot better, improving from 29% to 50%.
Lehigh’s season may depend on how well they can play the rest of the way like they did in the last 19 minutes of this one.
Tension Game Score: 64★ ★The tension game score for this game was 64, which indicates an fairly close battle.Lehigh Min. Win Probability: 6%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Lehigh had at any point during the game was 6%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 35★ ★The victory means a transfer of 35 Lax-ELO points from Rutgers to Lehigh. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Lehigh moves from 28th to 18th nationally; Rutgers goes from 16th to 21st.Game of Interest #2
Fairfield
Bryant1211LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 53★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 53, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Fairfield Min. Win Probability: 10%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Fairfield had at any point during the game was 10%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 19★The victory means a transfer of 19 Lax-ELO points from Bryant to Fairfield. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Fairfield moves from 68th to 67th nationally; Bryant goes from 40th to 42nd.Game Stars
FairfieldBryant1211LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 53★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 53, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Fairfield Min. Win Probability: 10%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Fairfield had at any point during the game was 10%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 19★The victory means a transfer of 19 Lax-ELO points from Bryant to Fairfield. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Fairfield moves from 68th to 67th nationally; Bryant goes from 40th to 42nd.Game Stars
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Game of Interest #2FairfieldBryant1211LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 53★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 53, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Fairfield Min. Win Probability: 10%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Fairfield had at any point during the game was 10%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 19★The victory means a transfer of 19 Lax-ELO points from Bryant to Fairfield. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Fairfield moves from 68th to 67th nationally; Bryant goes from 40th to 42nd.
FairfieldBryant1211LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 53★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 53, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Fairfield Min. Win Probability: 10%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Fairfield had at any point during the game was 10%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 19★The victory means a transfer of 19 Lax-ELO points from Bryant to Fairfield. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Fairfield moves from 68th to 67th nationally; Bryant goes from 40th to 42nd.Game of Interest #3
Cleveland State
Lafayette109LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 105★The tension game score for this game was 105, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Cleveland State Min. Win Probability: 3%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Cleveland State had at any point during the game was 3%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 16★The victory means a transfer of 16 Lax-ELO points from Lafayette to Cleveland State. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Cleveland State moves from 50th to 49th nationally; Lafayette goes from 61st to 61st.Game Stars
Cleveland StateLafayette109LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 105★The tension game score for this game was 105, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Cleveland State Min. Win Probability: 3%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Cleveland State had at any point during the game was 3%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 16★The victory means a transfer of 16 Lax-ELO points from Lafayette to Cleveland State. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Cleveland State moves from 50th to 49th nationally; Lafayette goes from 61st to 61st.Game Stars
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Game of Interest #3Cleveland StateLafayette109LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 105★The tension game score for this game was 105, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Cleveland State Min. Win Probability: 3%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Cleveland State had at any point during the game was 3%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 16★The victory means a transfer of 16 Lax-ELO points from Lafayette to Cleveland State. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Cleveland State moves from 50th to 49th nationally; Lafayette goes from 61st to 61st.
Cleveland StateLafayette109LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 105★The tension game score for this game was 105, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Cleveland State Min. Win Probability: 3%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Cleveland State had at any point during the game was 3%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 16★The victory means a transfer of 16 Lax-ELO points from Lafayette to Cleveland State. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Cleveland State moves from 50th to 49th nationally; Lafayette goes from 61st to 61st.Game of Interest #4
Army
Binghamton156LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 148★The tension game score for this game was 148, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Army Min. Win Probability: 60%★The lowest win probability that Army had at any point during the game was 60%, which tells us that the eventual victory was never really in doubt.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 52★ ★ ★The victory means a transfer of 52 Lax-ELO points from Binghamton to Army. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Army moves from 31st to 17th nationally; Binghamton goes from 61st to 68th.Game Stars
ArmyBinghamton156LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 148★The tension game score for this game was 148, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Army Min. Win Probability: 60%★The lowest win probability that Army had at any point during the game was 60%, which tells us that the eventual victory was never really in doubt.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 52★ ★ ★The victory means a transfer of 52 Lax-ELO points from Binghamton to Army. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Army moves from 31st to 17th nationally; Binghamton goes from 61st to 68th.Game Stars
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Game of Interest #4ArmyBinghamton156LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 148★The tension game score for this game was 148, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Army Min. Win Probability: 60%★The lowest win probability that Army had at any point during the game was 60%, which tells us that the eventual victory was never really in doubt.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 52★ ★ ★The victory means a transfer of 52 Lax-ELO points from Binghamton to Army. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Army moves from 31st to 17th nationally; Binghamton goes from 61st to 68th.
ArmyBinghamton156LaxWP Game PageTension Game Score: 148★The tension game score for this game was 148, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Army Min. Win Probability: 60%★The lowest win probability that Army had at any point during the game was 60%, which tells us that the eventual victory was never really in doubt.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 52★ ★ ★The victory means a transfer of 52 Lax-ELO points from Binghamton to Army. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Army moves from 31st to 17th nationally; Binghamton goes from 61st to 68th.When we are blessed with a day in which the slate of games numbers in the dozens, it is all but impossible to really keep track of all the goings on in D1 lacrosse. So we decided to put out a daily digest of the day that was. The idea here is to use some metrics that we can calculate for each game as a way to highlight the most meaningful or interesting matchups.
To rank games, we will be using three values:
- Tension Game Score – a measure of how tight the game was. A back-and-forth match up where neither team is able to take control is going to have a lower tension score (i.e. smaller gap between the teams).
- Min. Win Probability – the lowest win probability value that our model ascribed to the eventual winner during the course of the game. A game where the winner had to make a huge comeback is probably going to have a very low win probability (think about the moment that it seemed least likely that they’d come back).
- Lax-ELO Transfer – a measure of how much an intridual game did to make us re-assess how good a certain team was. In a game where a favorite beats the underdog by as much as we thought they would, you don’t really update your priors about how good each team is. Those games would also transfer a relatively small number of Lax-ELO points.
We will present the metrics for each game, along with a star-based indicator to tell you how common or uncommon that outcome is. For example, a game in which the winning team had a win probability in the single digits is a rare occurence and would get 3 stars in that category.
We welcome your feedback, and we hope that this helps you to distill down the craziness of a full lacrosse slate into a more digestible list of highlights.
