Daily Digest: Mar 10, 2019
Daily Digest: Mar 10, 2019
Our quantitative way to highlight the best games of a busy slate. See below for the explainer.
Game of Interest #1
Brown
Virginia1314See Our RecapTension Game Score: 118★The tension game score for this game was 118, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Virginia Min. Win Probability: 1%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Virginia had at any point during the game was 1%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 6★The victory means a transfer of 6 Lax-ELO points from Brown to Virginia. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Brown moves from 35th to 34th nationally; Virginia goes from 27th to 22nd.
BrownVirginia1314See Our RecapTension Game Score: 118★The tension game score for this game was 118, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Virginia Min. Win Probability: 1%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Virginia had at any point during the game was 1%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 6★The victory means a transfer of 6 Lax-ELO points from Brown to Virginia. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Brown moves from 35th to 34th nationally; Virginia goes from 27th to 22nd.Game of Interest #1BrownVirginia1314See Our RecapTension Game Score: 118★The tension game score for this game was 118, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Virginia Min. Win Probability: 1%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Virginia had at any point during the game was 1%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 6★The victory means a transfer of 6 Lax-ELO points from Brown to Virginia. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Brown moves from 35th to 34th nationally; Virginia goes from 27th to 22nd.
BrownVirginia1314See Our RecapTension Game Score: 118★The tension game score for this game was 118, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Virginia Min. Win Probability: 1%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Virginia had at any point during the game was 1%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 6★The victory means a transfer of 6 Lax-ELO points from Brown to Virginia. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Brown moves from 35th to 34th nationally; Virginia goes from 27th to 22nd.Game of Interest #2
Yale
Michigan1711See Our RecapTension Game Score: 122★The tension game score for this game was 122, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Yale Min. Win Probability: 52%★The lowest win probability that Yale had at any point during the game was 52%, which tells us that the eventual victory was never really in doubt.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 45★ ★The victory means a transfer of 45 Lax-ELO points from Michigan to Yale. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Yale moves from 5th to 4th nationally; Michigan goes from 19th to 36th.
YaleMichigan1711See Our RecapTension Game Score: 122★The tension game score for this game was 122, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Yale Min. Win Probability: 52%★The lowest win probability that Yale had at any point during the game was 52%, which tells us that the eventual victory was never really in doubt.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 45★ ★The victory means a transfer of 45 Lax-ELO points from Michigan to Yale. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Yale moves from 5th to 4th nationally; Michigan goes from 19th to 36th.Game of Interest #2YaleMichigan1711See Our RecapTension Game Score: 122★The tension game score for this game was 122, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Yale Min. Win Probability: 52%★The lowest win probability that Yale had at any point during the game was 52%, which tells us that the eventual victory was never really in doubt.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 45★ ★The victory means a transfer of 45 Lax-ELO points from Michigan to Yale. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Yale moves from 5th to 4th nationally; Michigan goes from 19th to 36th.
YaleMichigan1711See Our RecapTension Game Score: 122★The tension game score for this game was 122, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Yale Min. Win Probability: 52%★The lowest win probability that Yale had at any point during the game was 52%, which tells us that the eventual victory was never really in doubt.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 45★ ★The victory means a transfer of 45 Lax-ELO points from Michigan to Yale. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Yale moves from 5th to 4th nationally; Michigan goes from 19th to 36th.Game of Interest #3
Villanova
Drexel1015See Our RecapTension Game Score: 152★The tension game score for this game was 152, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Drexel Min. Win Probability: 14%★ ★The lowest win probability that Drexel had at any point during the game was 14%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 27★The victory means a transfer of 27 Lax-ELO points from Villanova to Drexel. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Villanova moves from 33rd to 37th nationally; Drexel goes from 50th to 45th.
VillanovaDrexel1015See Our RecapTension Game Score: 152★The tension game score for this game was 152, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Drexel Min. Win Probability: 14%★ ★The lowest win probability that Drexel had at any point during the game was 14%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 27★The victory means a transfer of 27 Lax-ELO points from Villanova to Drexel. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Villanova moves from 33rd to 37th nationally; Drexel goes from 50th to 45th.Game of Interest #3VillanovaDrexel1015See Our RecapTension Game Score: 152★The tension game score for this game was 152, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Drexel Min. Win Probability: 14%★ ★The lowest win probability that Drexel had at any point during the game was 14%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 27★The victory means a transfer of 27 Lax-ELO points from Villanova to Drexel. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Villanova moves from 33rd to 37th nationally; Drexel goes from 50th to 45th.
VillanovaDrexel1015See Our RecapTension Game Score: 152★The tension game score for this game was 152, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Drexel Min. Win Probability: 14%★ ★The lowest win probability that Drexel had at any point during the game was 14%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 27★The victory means a transfer of 27 Lax-ELO points from Villanova to Drexel. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Villanova moves from 33rd to 37th nationally; Drexel goes from 50th to 45th.Game of Interest #4
Penn State
Jacksonville2411See Our RecapTension Game Score: 171★The tension game score for this game was 171, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Penn State Min. Win Probability: 60%★The lowest win probability that Penn State had at any point during the game was 60%, which tells us that the eventual victory was never really in doubt.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 57★ ★ ★The victory means a transfer of 57 Lax-ELO points from Jacksonville to Penn State. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Penn State moves from 4th to 2nd nationally; Jacksonville goes from 55th to 59th.
Penn StateJacksonville2411See Our RecapTension Game Score: 171★The tension game score for this game was 171, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Penn State Min. Win Probability: 60%★The lowest win probability that Penn State had at any point during the game was 60%, which tells us that the eventual victory was never really in doubt.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 57★ ★ ★The victory means a transfer of 57 Lax-ELO points from Jacksonville to Penn State. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Penn State moves from 4th to 2nd nationally; Jacksonville goes from 55th to 59th.Game of Interest #4Penn StateJacksonville2411See Our RecapTension Game Score: 171★The tension game score for this game was 171, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Penn State Min. Win Probability: 60%★The lowest win probability that Penn State had at any point during the game was 60%, which tells us that the eventual victory was never really in doubt.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 57★ ★ ★The victory means a transfer of 57 Lax-ELO points from Jacksonville to Penn State. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Penn State moves from 4th to 2nd nationally; Jacksonville goes from 55th to 59th.
Penn StateJacksonville2411See Our RecapTension Game Score: 171★The tension game score for this game was 171, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Penn State Min. Win Probability: 60%★The lowest win probability that Penn State had at any point during the game was 60%, which tells us that the eventual victory was never really in doubt.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 57★ ★ ★The victory means a transfer of 57 Lax-ELO points from Jacksonville to Penn State. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Penn State moves from 4th to 2nd nationally; Jacksonville goes from 55th to 59th.Game of Interest #5
Towson
Cornell1118See Our RecapTension Game Score: 164★The tension game score for this game was 164, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Cornell Min. Win Probability: 23%★ ★The lowest win probability that Cornell had at any point during the game was 23%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 22★The victory means a transfer of 22 Lax-ELO points from Towson to Cornell. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Towson moves from 9th to 11th nationally; Cornell goes from 10th to 9th.
TowsonCornell1118See Our RecapTension Game Score: 164★The tension game score for this game was 164, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Cornell Min. Win Probability: 23%★ ★The lowest win probability that Cornell had at any point during the game was 23%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 22★The victory means a transfer of 22 Lax-ELO points from Towson to Cornell. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Towson moves from 9th to 11th nationally; Cornell goes from 10th to 9th.Game of Interest #5TowsonCornell1118See Our RecapTension Game Score: 164★The tension game score for this game was 164, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Cornell Min. Win Probability: 23%★ ★The lowest win probability that Cornell had at any point during the game was 23%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 22★The victory means a transfer of 22 Lax-ELO points from Towson to Cornell. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Towson moves from 9th to 11th nationally; Cornell goes from 10th to 9th.
TowsonCornell1118See Our RecapTension Game Score: 164★The tension game score for this game was 164, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Cornell Min. Win Probability: 23%★ ★The lowest win probability that Cornell had at any point during the game was 23%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 22★The victory means a transfer of 22 Lax-ELO points from Towson to Cornell. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Towson moves from 9th to 11th nationally; Cornell goes from 10th to 9th.When we are blessed with a day in which the slate of games numbers in the dozens, it is all but impossible to really keep track of all the goings on in D1 lacrosse. So we decided to put out a daily digest of the day that was. The idea here is to use some metrics that we can calculate for each game as a way to highlight the most meaningful or interesting matchups.
To rank games, we will be using three values:
- Tension Game Score – a measure of how tight the game was. A back-and-forth match up where neither team is able to take control is going to have a lower tension score (i.e. smaller gap between the teams).
- Min. Win Probability – the lowest win probability value that our model ascribed to the eventual winner during the course of the game. A game where the winner had to make a huge comeback is probably going to have a very low win probability (think about the moment that it seemed least likely that they’d come back).
- Lax-ELO Transfer – a measure of how much an intridual game did to make us re-assess how good a certain team was. In a game where a favorite beats the underdog by as much as we thought they would, you don’t really update your priors about how good each team is. Those games would also transfer a relatively small number of Lax-ELO points.
We will present the metrics for each game, along with a star-based indicator to tell you how common or uncommon that outcome is. For example, a game in which the winning team had a win probability in the single digits is a rare occurence and would get 3 stars in that category.
We welcome your feedback, and we hope that this helps you to distill down the craziness of a full lacrosse slate into a more digestible list of highlights.
