Daily Digest: Mar 9, 2019
Daily Digest: Mar 9, 2019
Our quantitative way to highlight the best games of a busy slate. See below for the explainer.
Game of Interest #1
Sacred Heart
Hartford1612See Our RecapMax Tuttle continues to be one of the best players in the country that gets the least amount of attention. As of this writing, he is the 7th most productive offensive player in the country. (His teammate, Joe Saggese, is ranked #5 by the way).
Sacred HeartHartford1612See Our RecapMax Tuttle continues to be one of the best players in the country that gets the least amount of attention. As of this writing, he is the 7th most productive offensive player in the country. (His teammate, Joe Saggese, is ranked #5 by the way).The team, as a whole is still middling (44th per Lax-ELO), but this is an offense that has some firepower. And they needed it to earn the win over still-winless Hartford. Hartford was up 9-7 at halftime, and just before the half, Sacred Heart’s win probability was only about 13%.
The comeback made this game interesting and earned it a spot on the list.
Tension Game Score: 80★ ★The tension game score for this game was 80, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Sacred Heart Min. Win Probability: 13%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Sacred Heart had at any point during the game was 13%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 36★ ★The victory means a transfer of 36 Lax-ELO points from Hartford to Sacred Heart. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Sacred Heart moves from 47th to 44th nationally; Hartford goes from 69th to 70th.Game Stars
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Game of Interest #1Sacred HeartHartford1612See Our RecapMax Tuttle continues to be one of the best players in the country that gets the least amount of attention. As of this writing, he is the 7th most productive offensive player in the country. (His teammate, Joe Saggese, is ranked #5 by the way).
Sacred HeartHartford1612See Our RecapMax Tuttle continues to be one of the best players in the country that gets the least amount of attention. As of this writing, he is the 7th most productive offensive player in the country. (His teammate, Joe Saggese, is ranked #5 by the way).The team, as a whole is still middling (44th per Lax-ELO), but this is an offense that has some firepower. And they needed it to earn the win over still-winless Hartford. Hartford was up 9-7 at halftime, and just before the half, Sacred Heart’s win probability was only about 13%.
The comeback made this game interesting and earned it a spot on the list.
Tension Game Score: 80★ ★The tension game score for this game was 80, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Sacred Heart Min. Win Probability: 13%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Sacred Heart had at any point during the game was 13%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 36★ ★The victory means a transfer of 36 Lax-ELO points from Hartford to Sacred Heart. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Sacred Heart moves from 47th to 44th nationally; Hartford goes from 69th to 70th.Game of Interest #2
Johns Hopkins
Syracuse1014See Our RecapThis was an extremely close, tight, back-and-forth game for 3 quarters. Then the 4th quarter happened. Hopkins clammed up. Syracuse got hot on offense.
Johns HopkinsSyracuse1014See Our RecapThis was an extremely close, tight, back-and-forth game for 3 quarters. Then the 4th quarter happened. Hopkins clammed up. Syracuse got hot on offense.Before you know it, the barn-burner became a blow out.
Tension Game Score: 74★ ★The tension game score for this game was 74, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Syracuse Min. Win Probability: 14%★ ★The lowest win probability that Syracuse had at any point during the game was 14%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 19★The victory means a transfer of 19 Lax-ELO points from Johns Hopkins to Syracuse. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Johns Hopkins moves from 19th to 26th nationally; Syracuse goes from 29th to 23rd.Game Stars
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Game of Interest #2Johns HopkinsSyracuse1014See Our RecapThis was an extremely close, tight, back-and-forth game for 3 quarters. Then the 4th quarter happened. Hopkins clammed up. Syracuse got hot on offense.
Johns HopkinsSyracuse1014See Our RecapThis was an extremely close, tight, back-and-forth game for 3 quarters. Then the 4th quarter happened. Hopkins clammed up. Syracuse got hot on offense.Before you know it, the barn-burner became a blow out.
Tension Game Score: 74★ ★The tension game score for this game was 74, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Syracuse Min. Win Probability: 14%★ ★The lowest win probability that Syracuse had at any point during the game was 14%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 19★The victory means a transfer of 19 Lax-ELO points from Johns Hopkins to Syracuse. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Johns Hopkins moves from 19th to 26th nationally; Syracuse goes from 29th to 23rd.Game of Interest #3
Canisius
Robert Morris128See Our RecapThis game was not interesting in many of the traditional senses. It wasn’t particularly close. It wasn’t between too highly ranked teams. If anything, this game making the list provides some insight into how an ELO system works.
CanisiusRobert Morris128See Our RecapThis game was not interesting in many of the traditional senses. It wasn’t particularly close. It wasn’t between too highly ranked teams. If anything, this game making the list provides some insight into how an ELO system works.At the end of last season, Robert Morris cruised into the NCAA tournament and gave Maryland a scare in the first round. As a result, they entered this season ranked fairly high (10th I believe).
Because ELO systems are fairly slow to incorporate new information, the slow start to Bobby Mo’s season is just starting to make a dent in their ELO rating. This game ranks highly amongst the others because of how much it forces us to adjust our perspective of Robert Morris.
So while the national rankings probably weren’t shocked by this outcome, the ELO system was more than others.
Tension Game Score: 117★The tension game score for this game was 117, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Canisius Min. Win Probability: 23%★ ★The lowest win probability that Canisius had at any point during the game was 23%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 44★ ★The victory means a transfer of 44 Lax-ELO points from Robert Morris to Canisius. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Canisius moves from 55th to 45th nationally; Robert Morris goes from 15th to 22nd.Game Stars
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Game of Interest #3CanisiusRobert Morris128See Our RecapThis game was not interesting in many of the traditional senses. It wasn’t particularly close. It wasn’t between too highly ranked teams. If anything, this game making the list provides some insight into how an ELO system works.
CanisiusRobert Morris128See Our RecapThis game was not interesting in many of the traditional senses. It wasn’t particularly close. It wasn’t between too highly ranked teams. If anything, this game making the list provides some insight into how an ELO system works.At the end of last season, Robert Morris cruised into the NCAA tournament and gave Maryland a scare in the first round. As a result, they entered this season ranked fairly high (10th I believe).
Because ELO systems are fairly slow to incorporate new information, the slow start to Bobby Mo’s season is just starting to make a dent in their ELO rating. This game ranks highly amongst the others because of how much it forces us to adjust our perspective of Robert Morris.
So while the national rankings probably weren’t shocked by this outcome, the ELO system was more than others.
Tension Game Score: 117★The tension game score for this game was 117, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Canisius Min. Win Probability: 23%★ ★The lowest win probability that Canisius had at any point during the game was 23%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 44★ ★The victory means a transfer of 44 Lax-ELO points from Robert Morris to Canisius. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Canisius moves from 55th to 45th nationally; Robert Morris goes from 15th to 22nd.Game of Interest #4
Bryant
Stony Brook89See Our RecapTension Game Score: 45★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 45, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Stony Brook Min. Win Probability: 29%★ ★The lowest win probability that Stony Brook had at any point during the game was 29%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 10★The victory means a transfer of 10 Lax-ELO points from Bryant to Stony Brook. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Bryant moves from 38th to 40th nationally; Stony Brook goes from 54th to 52nd.Game Stars
BryantStony Brook89See Our RecapTension Game Score: 45★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 45, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Stony Brook Min. Win Probability: 29%★ ★The lowest win probability that Stony Brook had at any point during the game was 29%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 10★The victory means a transfer of 10 Lax-ELO points from Bryant to Stony Brook. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Bryant moves from 38th to 40th nationally; Stony Brook goes from 54th to 52nd.Game Stars
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Game of Interest #4BryantStony Brook89See Our RecapTension Game Score: 45★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 45, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Stony Brook Min. Win Probability: 29%★ ★The lowest win probability that Stony Brook had at any point during the game was 29%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 10★The victory means a transfer of 10 Lax-ELO points from Bryant to Stony Brook. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Bryant moves from 38th to 40th nationally; Stony Brook goes from 54th to 52nd.
BryantStony Brook89See Our RecapTension Game Score: 45★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 45, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Stony Brook Min. Win Probability: 29%★ ★The lowest win probability that Stony Brook had at any point during the game was 29%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 10★The victory means a transfer of 10 Lax-ELO points from Bryant to Stony Brook. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Bryant moves from 38th to 40th nationally; Stony Brook goes from 54th to 52nd.Game of Interest #5
Georgetown
Fairfield196See Our RecapTension Game Score: 158★The tension game score for this game was 158, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Georgetown Min. Win Probability: 76%★The lowest win probability that Georgetown had at any point during the game was 76%, which tells us that the eventual victory was never really in doubt.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 57★ ★ ★The victory means a transfer of 57 Lax-ELO points from Fairfield to Georgetown. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Georgetown moves from 13th to 7th nationally; Fairfield goes from 62nd to 68th.Game Stars
GeorgetownFairfield196See Our RecapTension Game Score: 158★The tension game score for this game was 158, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Georgetown Min. Win Probability: 76%★The lowest win probability that Georgetown had at any point during the game was 76%, which tells us that the eventual victory was never really in doubt.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 57★ ★ ★The victory means a transfer of 57 Lax-ELO points from Fairfield to Georgetown. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Georgetown moves from 13th to 7th nationally; Fairfield goes from 62nd to 68th.Game Stars
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Game of Interest #5GeorgetownFairfield196See Our RecapTension Game Score: 158★The tension game score for this game was 158, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Georgetown Min. Win Probability: 76%★The lowest win probability that Georgetown had at any point during the game was 76%, which tells us that the eventual victory was never really in doubt.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 57★ ★ ★The victory means a transfer of 57 Lax-ELO points from Fairfield to Georgetown. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Georgetown moves from 13th to 7th nationally; Fairfield goes from 62nd to 68th.
GeorgetownFairfield196See Our RecapTension Game Score: 158★The tension game score for this game was 158, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Georgetown Min. Win Probability: 76%★The lowest win probability that Georgetown had at any point during the game was 76%, which tells us that the eventual victory was never really in doubt.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 57★ ★ ★The victory means a transfer of 57 Lax-ELO points from Fairfield to Georgetown. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Georgetown moves from 13th to 7th nationally; Fairfield goes from 62nd to 68th.When we are blessed with a day in which the slate of games numbers in the dozens, it is all but impossible to really keep track of all the goings on in D1 lacrosse. So we decided to put out a daily digest of the day that was. The idea here is to use some metrics that we can calculate for each game as a way to highlight the most meaningful or interesting matchups.
To rank games, we will be using three values:
- Tension Game Score – a measure of how tight the game was. A back-and-forth match up where neither team is able to take control is going to have a lower tension score (i.e. smaller gap between the teams).
- Min. Win Probability – the lowest win probability value that our model ascribed to the eventual winner during the course of the game. A game where the winner had to make a huge comeback is probably going to have a very low win probability (think about the moment that it seemed least likely that they’d come back).
- Lax-ELO Transfer – a measure of how much an intridual game did to make us re-assess how good a certain team was. In a game where a favorite beats the underdog by as much as we thought they would, you don’t really update your priors about how good each team is. Those games would also transfer a relatively small number of Lax-ELO points.
We will present the metrics for each game, along with a star-based indicator to tell you how common or uncommon that outcome is. For example, a game in which the winning team had a win probability in the single digits is a rare occurence and would get 3 stars in that category.
We welcome your feedback, and we hope that this helps you to distill down the craziness of a full lacrosse slate into a more digestible list of highlights.
