Daily Digest: Mar 2, 2019
Daily Digest: Mar 2, 2019
Our quantitative way to highlight the best games of a busy slate. See below for the explainer.
Game of Interest #1ManhattanBryant98See Our RecapTension Game Score: 63★ ★The tension game score for this game was 63, which indicates an fairly close battle.Manhattan Min. Win Probability: 6%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Manhattan had at any point during the game was 6%, which means that this was a “happensacoupletimesayear” type comeback.LaxELO Points Transfer: 19★The victory means a transfer of 19 LaxELO points from Bryant to Manhattan. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Manhattan moves from 69th to 66th nationally; Bryant goes from 33rd to 39th.
Game of Interest #1ManhattanBryant98See Our RecapTension Game Score: 63★ ★The tension game score for this game was 63, which indicates an fairly close battle.Manhattan Min. Win Probability: 6%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Manhattan had at any point during the game was 6%, which means that this was a “happensacoupletimesayear” type comeback.LaxELO Points Transfer: 19★The victory means a transfer of 19 LaxELO points from Bryant to Manhattan. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Manhattan moves from 69th to 66th nationally; Bryant goes from 33rd to 39th.
Game of Interest #2VirginiaSyracuse1514See Our RecapTension Game Score: 81★ ★The tension game score for this game was 81, which indicates a game that was more swingy than tight throughout.Virginia Min. Win Probability: 1%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Virginia had at any point during the game was 1%, which means that this was a “happensacoupletimesayear” type comeback.LaxELO Points Transfer: 17★The victory means a transfer of 17 LaxELO points from Syracuse to Virginia. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Virginia moves from 30th to 22nd nationally; Syracuse goes from 22nd to 27th.Game Stars


Game of Interest #2VirginiaSyracuse1514See Our RecapTension Game Score: 81★ ★The tension game score for this game was 81, which indicates a game that was more swingy than tight throughout.Virginia Min. Win Probability: 1%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Virginia had at any point during the game was 1%, which means that this was a “happensacoupletimesayear” type comeback.LaxELO Points Transfer: 17★The victory means a transfer of 17 LaxELO points from Syracuse to Virginia. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Virginia moves from 30th to 22nd nationally; Syracuse goes from 22nd to 27th.
Game of Interest #3PennPenn State1415See Our RecapTension Game Score: 41★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 41, which indicates an extremely close nailbiter.Penn State Min. Win Probability: 14%★ ★The lowest win probability that Penn State had at any point during the game was 14%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.LaxELO Points Transfer: 2★The victory means a transfer of 2 LaxELO points from Penn to Penn State. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Penn moves from 41st to 40th nationally; Penn State goes from 6th to 6th.Game Stars


Game of Interest #3PennPenn State1415See Our RecapTension Game Score: 41★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 41, which indicates an extremely close nailbiter.Penn State Min. Win Probability: 14%★ ★The lowest win probability that Penn State had at any point during the game was 14%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.LaxELO Points Transfer: 2★The victory means a transfer of 2 LaxELO points from Penn to Penn State. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Penn moves from 41st to 40th nationally; Penn State goes from 6th to 6th.
Game of Interest #4MassachusettsYale1112See Our RecapTension Game Score: 89★ ★The tension game score for this game was 89, which indicates a game that was more swingy than tight throughout.Yale Min. Win Probability: 0%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Yale had at any point during the game was 0%, which means that this was a “happensacoupletimesayear” type comeback.LaxELO Points Transfer: 3★The victory means a transfer of 3 LaxELO points from UMass to Yale. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Massachusetts moves from 25th to 30th nationally; Yale goes from 4th to 5th.Game Stars


Game of Interest #4MassachusettsYale1112See Our RecapTension Game Score: 89★ ★The tension game score for this game was 89, which indicates a game that was more swingy than tight throughout.Yale Min. Win Probability: 0%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Yale had at any point during the game was 0%, which means that this was a “happensacoupletimesayear” type comeback.LaxELO Points Transfer: 3★The victory means a transfer of 3 LaxELO points from UMass to Yale. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Massachusetts moves from 25th to 30th nationally; Yale goes from 4th to 5th.
Game of Interest #5Hobart and WilliamBinghamton167See Our RecapTension Game Score: 146★The tension game score for this game was 146, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Hobart Min. Win Probability: 34%★The lowest win probability that Hobart had at any point during the game was 34%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.LaxELO Points Transfer: 54★ ★ ★The victory means a transfer of 54 LaxELO points from Binghamton to Hobart. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Hobart and William moves from 38th to 20th nationally; Binghamton goes from 55th to 63rd.Game Stars


Game of Interest #5Hobart and WilliamBinghamton167See Our RecapTension Game Score: 146★The tension game score for this game was 146, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Hobart Min. Win Probability: 34%★The lowest win probability that Hobart had at any point during the game was 34%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.LaxELO Points Transfer: 54★ ★ ★The victory means a transfer of 54 LaxELO points from Binghamton to Hobart. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Hobart and William moves from 38th to 20th nationally; Binghamton goes from 55th to 63rd.
When we are blessed with a day in which the slate of games numbers in the dozens, it is all but impossible to really keep track of all the goings on in D1 lacrosse. So we decided to put out a daily digest of the day that was. The idea here is to use some metrics that we can calculate for each game as a way to highlight the most meaningful or interesting matchups.
To rank games, we will be using three values:
 Tension Game Score – a measure of how tight the game was. A backandforth match up where neither team is able to take control is going to have a lower tension score (i.e. smaller gap between the teams).
 Min. Win Probability – the lowest win probability value that our model ascribed to the eventual winner during the course of the game. A game where the winner had to make a huge comeback is probably going to have a very low win probability (think about the moment that it seemed least likely that they’d come back).
 LaxELO Transfer – a measure of how much an intridual game did to make us reassess how good a certain team was. In a game where a favorite beats the underdog by as much as we thought they would, you don’t really update your priors about how good each team is. Those games would also transfer a relatively small number of LaxELO points.
We will present the metrics for each game, along with a starbased indicator to tell you how common or uncommon that outcome is. For example, a game in which the winning team had a win probability in the single digits is a rare occurence and would get 3 stars in that category.
We welcome your feedback, and we hope that this helps you to distill down the craziness of a full lacrosse slate into a more digestible list of highlights.