Daily Digest: Feb 26, 2019
Daily Digest: Feb 26, 2019
Our quantitative way to highlight the best games of a busy slate. See below for the explainer.
Game of Interest #1GeorgetownMount St Marys1311See Our RecapTension Game Score: 74★ ★The tension game score for this game was 74, which indicates a game that was more swingy than tight throughout.Georgetown Min. Win Probability: 26%★ ★The lowest win probability that Georgetown had at any point during the game was 26%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.LaxELO Points Transfer: 24★The victory means a transfer of 24 LaxELO points from Mount St Marys to Georgetown. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Georgetown moves from 28th to 29th nationally; Mount St Marys goes from 63rd to 63rd.Game Stars


Game of Interest #1GeorgetownMount St Marys1311See Our RecapTension Game Score: 74★ ★The tension game score for this game was 74, which indicates a game that was more swingy than tight throughout.Georgetown Min. Win Probability: 26%★ ★The lowest win probability that Georgetown had at any point during the game was 26%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.LaxELO Points Transfer: 24★The victory means a transfer of 24 LaxELO points from Mount St Marys to Georgetown. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Georgetown moves from 28th to 29th nationally; Mount St Marys goes from 63rd to 63rd.
Game of Interest #2MaristHartford1413See Our RecapTension Game Score: 53★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 53, which indicates an extremely close nailbiter.Marist Min. Win Probability: 11%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Marist had at any point during the game was 11%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.LaxELO Points Transfer: 16★The victory means a transfer of 16 LaxELO points from Hartford to Marist. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Marist moves from 57th to 57th nationally; Hartford goes from 65th to 65th.Game Stars


Game of Interest #2MaristHartford1413See Our RecapTension Game Score: 53★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 53, which indicates an extremely close nailbiter.Marist Min. Win Probability: 11%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Marist had at any point during the game was 11%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.LaxELO Points Transfer: 16★The victory means a transfer of 16 LaxELO points from Hartford to Marist. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Marist moves from 57th to 57th nationally; Hartford goes from 65th to 65th.
Game of Interest #3Holy CrossHarvard1110See Our RecapTension Game Score: 109★The tension game score for this game was 109, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Holy Cross Min. Win Probability: 2%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Holy Cross had at any point during the game was 2%, which means that this was a “happensacoupletimesayear” type comeback.LaxELO Points Transfer: 18★The victory means a transfer of 18 LaxELO points from Harvard to Holy Cross. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Holy Cross moves from 61st to 59th nationally; Harvard goes from 44th to 49th.Game Stars


Game of Interest #3Holy CrossHarvard1110See Our RecapTension Game Score: 109★The tension game score for this game was 109, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Holy Cross Min. Win Probability: 2%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Holy Cross had at any point during the game was 2%, which means that this was a “happensacoupletimesayear” type comeback.LaxELO Points Transfer: 18★The victory means a transfer of 18 LaxELO points from Harvard to Holy Cross. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Holy Cross moves from 61st to 59th nationally; Harvard goes from 44th to 49th.
Game of Interest #4WagnerMonmouth79See Our RecapTension Game Score: 49★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 49, which indicates an extremely close nailbiter.Monmouth Min. Win Probability: 26%★ ★The lowest win probability that Monmouth had at any point during the game was 26%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.LaxELO Points Transfer: 6★The victory means a transfer of 6 LaxELO points from Wagner to Monmouth. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Wagner moves from 67th to 67th nationally; Monmouth goes from 46th to 46th.Game Stars


Game of Interest #4WagnerMonmouth79See Our RecapTension Game Score: 49★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 49, which indicates an extremely close nailbiter.Monmouth Min. Win Probability: 26%★ ★The lowest win probability that Monmouth had at any point during the game was 26%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.LaxELO Points Transfer: 6★The victory means a transfer of 6 LaxELO points from Wagner to Monmouth. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Wagner moves from 67th to 67th nationally; Monmouth goes from 46th to 46th.
When we are blessed with a day in which the slate of games numbers in the dozens, it is all but impossible to really keep track of all the goings on in D1 lacrosse. So we decided to put out a daily digest of the day that was. The idea here is to use some metrics that we can calculate for each game as a way to highlight the most meaningful or interesting matchups.
To rank games, we will be using three values:
 Tension Game Score – a measure of how tight the game was. A backandforth match up where neither team is able to take control is going to have a lower tension score (i.e. smaller gap between the teams).
 Min. Win Probability – the lowest win probability value that our model ascribed to the eventual winner during the course of the game. A game where the winner had to make a huge comeback is probably going to have a very low win probability (think about the moment that it seemed least likely that they’d come back).
 LaxELO Transfer – a measure of how much an intridual game did to make us reassess how good a certain team was. In a game where a favorite beats the underdog by as much as we thought they would, you don’t really update your priors about how good each team is. Those games would also transfer a relatively small number of LaxELO points.
We will present the metrics for each game, along with a starbased indicator to tell you how common or uncommon that outcome is. For example, a game in which the winning team had a win probability in the single digits is a rare occurence and would get 3 stars in that category.
We welcome your feedback, and we hope that this helps you to distill down the craziness of a full lacrosse slate into a more digestible list of highlights.