Our quantitative way to highlight the best games of a busy slate. See below for the explainer.
Game of Interest #1UtahAir Force65See Our RecapTension Game Score: 53★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 53, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Utah Min. Win Probability: 16%★ ★The lowest win probability that Utah had at any point during the game was 16%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 17★The victory means a transfer of 17 Lax-ELO points from Air Force to Utah. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Utah moves from 50th to 47th nationally; Air Force goes from 40th to 42nd.Game Stars
Utah
Josh Stout
1.79 EGA
Jimmy Perkins
1.47 EGA
Jake Stout
1.24 EGA
Air Force
Matthew O’Rourk
1.46 EGA
Jack Flynn
1.17 EGA
Trey Lervick
1.14 EGA
Game of Interest #1UtahAir Force65See Our RecapTension Game Score: 53★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 53, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Utah Min. Win Probability: 16%★ ★The lowest win probability that Utah had at any point during the game was 16%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 17★The victory means a transfer of 17 Lax-ELO points from Air Force to Utah. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Utah moves from 50th to 47th nationally; Air Force goes from 40th to 42nd.
Game of Interest #2LehighCornell914See Our RecapTension Game Score: 92★ ★The tension game score for this game was 92, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Cornell Min. Win Probability: 15%★ ★The lowest win probability that Cornell had at any point during the game was 15%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 10★The victory means a transfer of 10 Lax-ELO points from Lehigh to Cornell. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Lehigh moves from 36th to 37th nationally; Cornell goes from 9th to 8th.Game Stars
Cornell
Jeff Teat
4.86 EGA
John Piatelli
3.69 EGA
Clarke Petterson
2.98 EGA
Lehigh
Alex Tumminello
2.62 EGA
Teddy Leggett
2.34 EGA
Cole Kirst
1.48 EGA
Game of Interest #2LehighCornell914See Our RecapTension Game Score: 92★ ★The tension game score for this game was 92, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Cornell Min. Win Probability: 15%★ ★The lowest win probability that Cornell had at any point during the game was 15%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 10★The victory means a transfer of 10 Lax-ELO points from Lehigh to Cornell. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Lehigh moves from 36th to 37th nationally; Cornell goes from 9th to 8th.
Game of Interest #3ArmySyracuse810See Our RecapTension Game Score: 94★ ★The tension game score for this game was 94, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Syracuse Min. Win Probability: 38%★The lowest win probability that Syracuse had at any point during the game was 38%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 12★The victory means a transfer of 12 Lax-ELO points from Army to Syracuse. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Army moves from 22nd to 24th nationally; Syracuse goes from 30th to 23rd.Game Stars
Syracuse
Jacob Buttermore
2.72 EGA
Nate Solomon
2.52 EGA
David Lipka
2.52 EGA
Army
Matt Manown
2.24 EGA
Alex Alacqua
2.12 EGA
Brendan Nichtern
1.96 EGA
Game of Interest #3ArmySyracuse810See Our RecapTension Game Score: 94★ ★The tension game score for this game was 94, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Syracuse Min. Win Probability: 38%★The lowest win probability that Syracuse had at any point during the game was 38%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 12★The victory means a transfer of 12 Lax-ELO points from Army to Syracuse. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Army moves from 22nd to 24th nationally; Syracuse goes from 30th to 23rd.
Game of Interest #4HamptonFurman626See Our RecapTension Game Score: 168★The tension game score for this game was 168, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Furman Min. Win Probability: 49%★The lowest win probability that Furman had at any point during the game was 49%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 33★ ★The victory means a transfer of 33 Lax-ELO points from Hampton to Furman. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Hampton moves from 61st to 69th nationally; Furman goes from 61st to 58th.Game Stars
Furman
David Williamson
4.15 EGA
John Holcomb
3.11 EGA
Jimmy Harrington
2.97 EGA
Hampton
Lonnie Jones
2.42 EGA
D Willams-Sturdivant
1.7 EGA
Pierce Johnson
1.44 EGA
Game of Interest #4HamptonFurman626See Our RecapTension Game Score: 168★The tension game score for this game was 168, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Furman Min. Win Probability: 49%★The lowest win probability that Furman had at any point during the game was 49%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 33★ ★The victory means a transfer of 33 Lax-ELO points from Hampton to Furman. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Hampton moves from 61st to 69th nationally; Furman goes from 61st to 58th.
Game of Interest #5Cleveland StateDenver816See Our RecapTension Game Score: 143★The tension game score for this game was 143, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Denver Min. Win Probability: 62%★The lowest win probability that Denver had at any point during the game was 62%, which tells us that the eventual victory was never really in doubt.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 5★The victory means a transfer of 5 Lax-ELO points from Cleveland State to Denver. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Cleveland State moves from 54th to 55th nationally; Denver goes from 5th to 5th.Game Stars
Denver
Ethan Walker
5.05 EGA
Ellis Geis
3.81 EGA
Alex Simmons
2.79 EGA
Cleveland State
Michael Wilson
3.18 EGA
Tristan Hanna
2.74 EGA
Michael Harris
2.16 EGA
Game of Interest #5Cleveland StateDenver816See Our RecapTension Game Score: 143★The tension game score for this game was 143, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Denver Min. Win Probability: 62%★The lowest win probability that Denver had at any point during the game was 62%, which tells us that the eventual victory was never really in doubt.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 5★The victory means a transfer of 5 Lax-ELO points from Cleveland State to Denver. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Cleveland State moves from 54th to 55th nationally; Denver goes from 5th to 5th.
When we are blessed with a day in which the slate of games numbers in the dozens, it is all but impossible to really keep track of all the goings on in D1 lacrosse. So we decided to put out a daily digest of the day that was. The idea here is to use some metrics that we can calculate for each game as a way to highlight the most meaningful or interesting matchups.
To rank games, we will be using three values:
Tension Game Score – a measure of how tight the game was. A back-and-forth match up where neither team is able to take control is going to have a lower tension score (i.e. smaller gap between the teams).
Min. Win Probability – the lowest win probability value that our model ascribed to the eventual winner during the course of the game. A game where the winner had to make a huge comeback is probably going to have a very low win probability (think about the moment that it seemed least likely that they’d come back).
Lax-ELO Transfer – a measure of how much an intridual game did to make us re-assess how good a certain team was. In a game where a favorite beats the underdog by as much as we thought they would, you don’t really update your priors about how good each team is. Those games would also transfer a relatively small number of Lax-ELO points.
We will present the metrics for each game, along with a star-based indicator to tell you how common or uncommon that outcome is. For example, a game in which the winning team had a win probability in the single digits is a rare occurence and would get 3 stars in that category.
We welcome your feedback, and we hope that this helps you to distill down the craziness of a full lacrosse slate into a more digestible list of highlights.