Daily Digest: Feb 23, 2019
Daily Digest: Feb 23, 2019
Our quantitative way to highlight the best games of a busy slate. See below for the explainer.
Game of Interest #1
Massachusetts
Harvard129See Our RecapThis one was tied 7-7 after 3 quarters. Harvard then scored the first goal of the 4th. At that point, the Crimson had a roughly 70% chance to win the game.
MassachusettsHarvard129See Our RecapThis one was tied 7-7 after 3 quarters. Harvard then scored the first goal of the 4th. At that point, the Crimson had a roughly 70% chance to win the game. The Minutemen obviously had other ideas. UMass rolled off a 4-goal run which ended with them up 11-8 with 5 minutes left and a win probability of about 97%.
Tension Game Score: 64★ ★The tension game score for this game was 64, which indicates an fairly close battle.UMass Min. Win Probability: 20%★ ★The lowest win probability that UMass had at any point during the game was 20%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 34★ ★The victory means a transfer of 34 Lax-ELO points from Harvard to UMass. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Massachusetts moves from 37th to 27th nationally; Harvard goes from 40th to 44th.Game Stars
|
|
||||||||||||||||
Game of Interest #1MassachusettsHarvard129See Our RecapThis one was tied 7-7 after 3 quarters. Harvard then scored the first goal of the 4th. At that point, the Crimson had a roughly 70% chance to win the game.
MassachusettsHarvard129See Our RecapThis one was tied 7-7 after 3 quarters. Harvard then scored the first goal of the 4th. At that point, the Crimson had a roughly 70% chance to win the game. The Minutemen obviously had other ideas. UMass rolled off a 4-goal run which ended with them up 11-8 with 5 minutes left and a win probability of about 97%.
Tension Game Score: 64★ ★The tension game score for this game was 64, which indicates an fairly close battle.UMass Min. Win Probability: 20%★ ★The lowest win probability that UMass had at any point during the game was 20%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 34★ ★The victory means a transfer of 34 Lax-ELO points from Harvard to UMass. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Massachusetts moves from 37th to 27th nationally; Harvard goes from 40th to 44th.Game of Interest #2
Towson
Georgetown148See Our RecapStrong day for the Towson defense in this one. They held Georgetown to only 21% shooting. Alex Woodall helped the Tigers to a 61% to 31% time-of-possession advantage.
TowsonGeorgetown148See Our RecapStrong day for the Towson defense in this one. They held Georgetown to only 21% shooting. Alex Woodall helped the Tigers to a 61% to 31% time-of-possession advantage.This is still a patient Tigers offense though. They took a full 44 seconds to get to their first shot (on average), compared to 31 seconds for the Hoyas.
Nothing in this game contradicts the story that Towson is a much improved team that will be a force in the CAA and beyond this year.
Tension Game Score: 88★ ★The tension game score for this game was 88, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Towson Min. Win Probability: 38%★The lowest win probability that Towson had at any point during the game was 38%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 48★ ★ ★The victory means a transfer of 48 Lax-ELO points from Georgetown to Towson. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Towson moves from 15th to 11th nationally; Georgetown goes from 17th to 28th.Game Stars
|
|
||||||||||||||||
Game of Interest #2TowsonGeorgetown148See Our RecapStrong day for the Towson defense in this one. They held Georgetown to only 21% shooting. Alex Woodall helped the Tigers to a 61% to 31% time-of-possession advantage.
TowsonGeorgetown148See Our RecapStrong day for the Towson defense in this one. They held Georgetown to only 21% shooting. Alex Woodall helped the Tigers to a 61% to 31% time-of-possession advantage.This is still a patient Tigers offense though. They took a full 44 seconds to get to their first shot (on average), compared to 31 seconds for the Hoyas.
Nothing in this game contradicts the story that Towson is a much improved team that will be a force in the CAA and beyond this year.
Tension Game Score: 88★ ★The tension game score for this game was 88, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Towson Min. Win Probability: 38%★The lowest win probability that Towson had at any point during the game was 38%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 48★ ★ ★The victory means a transfer of 48 Lax-ELO points from Georgetown to Towson. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Towson moves from 15th to 11th nationally; Georgetown goes from 17th to 28th.Game of Interest #3
Virginia
Princeton1211See Our RecapPrinceton took 55 shots in this game, 35 of which were on net. Virginia only had 22 shots that made it through to the keeper. 24 saves from Patrick Burkinshaw has to go down as one of the biggest performances for a keeper so far this year.
VirginiaPrinceton1211See Our RecapPrinceton took 55 shots in this game, 35 of which were on net. Virginia only had 22 shots that made it through to the keeper. 24 saves from Patrick Burkinshaw has to go down as one of the biggest performances for a keeper so far this year. Holding the Tigers to 11 goals is an impressive feat when you consider how they’ve been running up the score on teams so far. And considering that Princeton won more groundballs, had fewer turnovers, and had large T.O.P. advantage, goalie play was about the only thing giving UVA a chance in this one.
Tension Game Score: 57★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 57, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Virginia Min. Win Probability: 14%★ ★The lowest win probability that Virginia had at any point during the game was 14%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 18★The victory means a transfer of 18 Lax-ELO points from Princeton to Virginia. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Virginia moves from 33rd to 32nd nationally; Princeton goes from 11th to 14th.Game Stars
|
|
||||||||||||||||
Game of Interest #3VirginiaPrinceton1211See Our RecapPrinceton took 55 shots in this game, 35 of which were on net. Virginia only had 22 shots that made it through to the keeper. 24 saves from Patrick Burkinshaw has to go down as one of the biggest performances for a keeper so far this year.
VirginiaPrinceton1211See Our RecapPrinceton took 55 shots in this game, 35 of which were on net. Virginia only had 22 shots that made it through to the keeper. 24 saves from Patrick Burkinshaw has to go down as one of the biggest performances for a keeper so far this year. Holding the Tigers to 11 goals is an impressive feat when you consider how they’ve been running up the score on teams so far. And considering that Princeton won more groundballs, had fewer turnovers, and had large T.O.P. advantage, goalie play was about the only thing giving UVA a chance in this one.
Tension Game Score: 57★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 57, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Virginia Min. Win Probability: 14%★ ★The lowest win probability that Virginia had at any point during the game was 14%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 18★The victory means a transfer of 18 Lax-ELO points from Princeton to Virginia. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Virginia moves from 33rd to 32nd nationally; Princeton goes from 11th to 14th.Game of Interest #4
Siena
Massachusetts-Lowell1615See Our RecapYou read that right: 1%. That is the win probability our model calculated for Siena with 55 seconds left in this one. This one made our list because Siena was down, and almost out, but came back to win.
SienaMassachusetts-Lowell1615See Our RecapYou read that right: 1%. That is the win probability our model calculated for Siena with 55 seconds left in this one. This one made our list because Siena was down, and almost out, but came back to win.Sometimes these lower-conference games can fly under the radar. But when there is a notable achievement, like coming back from a 1% win probability, we want to highlight it.
Tension Game Score: 132★The tension game score for this game was 132, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Siena Min. Win Probability: 1%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Siena had at any point during the game was 1%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 18★The victory means a transfer of 18 Lax-ELO points from UMass-Lowell to Siena. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Siena moves from 69th to 69th nationally; Massachusetts-Lowell goes from 56th to 55th.Game Stars
|
|
||||||||||||||||
Game of Interest #4SienaMassachusetts-Lowell1615See Our RecapYou read that right: 1%. That is the win probability our model calculated for Siena with 55 seconds left in this one. This one made our list because Siena was down, and almost out, but came back to win.
SienaMassachusetts-Lowell1615See Our RecapYou read that right: 1%. That is the win probability our model calculated for Siena with 55 seconds left in this one. This one made our list because Siena was down, and almost out, but came back to win.Sometimes these lower-conference games can fly under the radar. But when there is a notable achievement, like coming back from a 1% win probability, we want to highlight it.
Tension Game Score: 132★The tension game score for this game was 132, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Siena Min. Win Probability: 1%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Siena had at any point during the game was 1%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 18★The victory means a transfer of 18 Lax-ELO points from UMass-Lowell to Siena. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Siena moves from 69th to 69th nationally; Massachusetts-Lowell goes from 56th to 55th.Game of Interest #5
Dartmouth
Bryant56See Our RecapTension Game Score: 49★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 49, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Bryant Min. Win Probability: 44%★The lowest win probability that Bryant had at any point during the game was 44%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 2★The victory means a transfer of 2 Lax-ELO points from Dartmouth to Bryant. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Dartmouth moves from 68th to 68th nationally; Bryant goes from 29th to 25th.Game Stars
DartmouthBryant56See Our RecapTension Game Score: 49★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 49, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Bryant Min. Win Probability: 44%★The lowest win probability that Bryant had at any point during the game was 44%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 2★The victory means a transfer of 2 Lax-ELO points from Dartmouth to Bryant. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Dartmouth moves from 68th to 68th nationally; Bryant goes from 29th to 25th.Game Stars
|
|
||||||||||||||||
Game of Interest #5DartmouthBryant56See Our RecapTension Game Score: 49★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 49, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Bryant Min. Win Probability: 44%★The lowest win probability that Bryant had at any point during the game was 44%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 2★The victory means a transfer of 2 Lax-ELO points from Dartmouth to Bryant. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Dartmouth moves from 68th to 68th nationally; Bryant goes from 29th to 25th.
DartmouthBryant56See Our RecapTension Game Score: 49★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 49, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Bryant Min. Win Probability: 44%★The lowest win probability that Bryant had at any point during the game was 44%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 2★The victory means a transfer of 2 Lax-ELO points from Dartmouth to Bryant. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Dartmouth moves from 68th to 68th nationally; Bryant goes from 29th to 25th.When we are blessed with a day in which the slate of games numbers in the dozens, it is all but impossible to really keep track of all the goings on in D1 lacrosse. So we decided to put out a daily digest of the day that was. The idea here is to use some metrics that we can calculate for each game as a way to highlight the most meaningful or interesting matchups.
To rank games, we will be using three values:
- Tension Game Score – a measure of how tight the game was. A back-and-forth match up where neither team is able to take control is going to have a lower tension score (i.e. smaller gap between the teams).
- Min. Win Probability – the lowest win probability value that our model ascribed to the eventual winner during the course of the game. A game where the winner had to make a huge comeback is probably going to have a very low win probability (think about the moment that it seemed least likely that they’d come back).
- Lax-ELO Transfer – a measure of how much an intridual game did to make us re-assess how good a certain team was. In a game where a favorite beats the underdog by as much as we thought they would, you don’t really update your priors about how good each team is. Those games would also transfer a relatively small number of Lax-ELO points.
We will present the metrics for each game, along with a star-based indicator to tell you how common or uncommon that outcome is. For example, a game in which the winning team had a win probability in the single digits is a rare occurence and would get 3 stars in that category.
We welcome your feedback, and we hope that this helps you to distill down the craziness of a full lacrosse slate into a more digestible list of highlights.
