Our quantitative way to highlight the best games of a busy slate. See below for the explainer.
Game of Interest #1LafayetteManhattan135See Our RecapAt the end of the first quarter, the score was tied at 2 goals apiece, and it looked like we were going to be treated to a good one. The final tension score (114) proves otherwise. This game was not close.And you don’t have to look farther than the second quarter to understand why. Lafayette put on a real blitz, winning the quarter 7-2 and taking a commanding lead over the Jaspers.Everything after the half was just a formality.Tension Game Score: 114★The tension game score for this game was 114, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Lafayette Min. Win Probability: 39%★The lowest win probability that Lafayette had at any point during the game was 39%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 54★ ★ ★The victory means a transfer of 54 Lax-ELO points from Manhattan to Lafayette. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Lafayette moves from 65th to 59th nationally; Manhattan goes from 64th to 71st.Game Stars
Lafayette
George Enman
3.85 EGA
Bryan Hess
3.04 EGA
Conor Walters
2.98 EGA
Manhattan
Sean Mackinney
2.37 EGA
Parker Giarratana
2.2 EGA
Luke Hanson
1.18 EGA
Game of Interest #1LafayetteManhattan135See Our RecapAt the end of the first quarter, the score was tied at 2 goals apiece, and it looked like we were going to be treated to a good one. The final tension score (114) proves otherwise. This game was not close.
And you don’t have to look farther than the second quarter to understand why. Lafayette put on a real blitz, winning the quarter 7-2 and taking a commanding lead over the Jaspers.
Everything after the half was just a formality.Tension Game Score: 114★The tension game score for this game was 114, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Lafayette Min. Win Probability: 39%★The lowest win probability that Lafayette had at any point during the game was 39%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 54★ ★ ★The victory means a transfer of 54 Lax-ELO points from Manhattan to Lafayette. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Lafayette moves from 65th to 59th nationally; Manhattan goes from 64th to 71st.
Game of Interest #2DrexelMichigan1716See Our RecapMichigan dominated most of the traditional statistical categories in this one. They took more shots, had more possession, won more faceoffs, and grabbed more groundballs. The one area where they did not dominate was shooting percentage. For the game, they shot 32% while the Drexel Dragons shot 38%. And it was especially pronounced in the 2nd half, when Drexel connected on 44% of their shots, while Michigan only managed 28%.Perhaps it’s obvious, but you can do everything right, but if you don’t put the ball in the net, you will not win.Tension Game Score: 134★The tension game score for this game was 134, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Drexel Min. Win Probability: 8%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Drexel had at any point during the game was 8%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 18★The victory means a transfer of 18 Lax-ELO points from Michigan to Drexel. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Drexel moves from 51st to 47th nationally; Michigan goes from 32nd to 36th.Game Stars
Drexel
Reid Bowering
5.36 EGA
Nick Fox
4.53 EGA
Collin Mailman
3.65 EGA
Michigan
Alex Buckanavage
5.37 EGA
Kevin Mack
4.63 EGA
Avery Myers
4.46 EGA
Game of Interest #2DrexelMichigan1716See Our RecapMichigan dominated most of the traditional statistical categories in this one. They took more shots, had more possession, won more faceoffs, and grabbed more groundballs. The one area where they did not dominate was shooting percentage. For the game, they shot 32% while the Drexel Dragons shot 38%. And it was especially pronounced in the 2nd half, when Drexel connected on 44% of their shots, while Michigan only managed 28%.
Perhaps it’s obvious, but you can do everything right, but if you don’t put the ball in the net, you will not win.Tension Game Score: 134★The tension game score for this game was 134, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Drexel Min. Win Probability: 8%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Drexel had at any point during the game was 8%, which means that this was a “happens-a-couple-times-a-year” type comeback.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 18★The victory means a transfer of 18 Lax-ELO points from Michigan to Drexel. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Drexel moves from 51st to 47th nationally; Michigan goes from 32nd to 36th.
Game of Interest #3CanisiusFurman1012See Our RecapFurman was just a bit better in this one. They shot a bit better, they took a little better care of the ball, and they shot a little bit better and they saved a slightly higher percentage of their opponents shots. About the only thing that they didn’t do better was faceoffs, where Canisius won 16 out of 26.The win probability chart looks pretty boring, but that is mostly because of where the runs came. Since Furman took a 5-goal lead early in the 2nd half, the best Canisius could do was to try and chip away at it. Obviously, from a win probability perspective, even though they eventually cut it to 2, this game was never really in doubt. Frankly, this game probably doesn’t make the highlight list on a more interesting night.Tension Game Score: 96★ ★The tension game score for this game was 96, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Furman Min. Win Probability: 48%★The lowest win probability that Furman had at any point during the game was 48%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 17★The victory means a transfer of 17 Lax-ELO points from Canisius to Furman. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Canisius moves from 49th to 52nd nationally; Furman goes from 62nd to 62nd.Game Stars
Furman
William Holcomb
2.91 EGA
Jarrett Birch
2.91 EGA
Anders Erickson
1.96 EGA
Canisius
Jacob Buck
3.65 EGA
Carter Stefaniak
2.79 EGA
Mario Caito
2.14 EGA
Game of Interest #3CanisiusFurman1012See Our RecapFurman was just a bit better in this one. They shot a bit better, they took a little better care of the ball, and they shot a little bit better and they saved a slightly higher percentage of their opponents shots. About the only thing that they didn’t do better was faceoffs, where Canisius won 16 out of 26.
The win probability chart looks pretty boring, but that is mostly because of where the runs came. Since Furman took a 5-goal lead early in the 2nd half, the best Canisius could do was to try and chip away at it. Obviously, from a win probability perspective, even though they eventually cut it to 2, this game was never really in doubt. Frankly, this game probably doesn’t make the highlight list on a more interesting night.Tension Game Score: 96★ ★The tension game score for this game was 96, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Furman Min. Win Probability: 48%★The lowest win probability that Furman had at any point during the game was 48%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 17★The victory means a transfer of 17 Lax-ELO points from Canisius to Furman. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Canisius moves from 49th to 52nd nationally; Furman goes from 62nd to 62nd.
Game of Interest #4Holy CrossMassachusetts-Lowell127See Our RecapTension Game Score: 172★The tension game score for this game was 172, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Holy Cross Min. Win Probability: 37%★ ★The lowest win probability that Holy Cross had at any point during the game was 37%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 47★ ★The victory means a transfer of 47 Lax-ELO points from UMass-Lowell to Holy Cross. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Holy Cross moves from 68th to 60th nationally; Massachusetts-Lowell goes from 50th to 56th.Game Stars
Holy Cross
Kevin Kodzis
5.46 EGA
Drew Babiak
3.75 EGA
Connor Waldron
2.4 EGA
UMass-Lowell
Jake Lining
2.23 EGA
Domenic Giachello
1.79 EGA
Cory Highfield
1.53 EGA
Game of Interest #4Holy CrossMassachusetts-Lowell127See Our RecapTension Game Score: 172★The tension game score for this game was 172, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Holy Cross Min. Win Probability: 37%★ ★The lowest win probability that Holy Cross had at any point during the game was 37%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 47★ ★The victory means a transfer of 47 Lax-ELO points from UMass-Lowell to Holy Cross. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Holy Cross moves from 68th to 60th nationally; Massachusetts-Lowell goes from 50th to 56th.
Game of Interest #5Boston USacred Heart1611See Our RecapTension Game Score: 174★The tension game score for this game was 174, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Boston U Min. Win Probability: 40%★The lowest win probability that Boston U had at any point during the game was 40%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 43★ ★The victory means a transfer of 43 Lax-ELO points from Sacred Heart to Boston U. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Boston U moves from 29th to 19th nationally; Sacred Heart goes from 41st to 49th.Game Stars
Boston U
Chris Gray
5.39 EGA
James Burr
3.83 EGA
Brendan Homire
2.62 EGA
Sacred Heart
Max Tuttle
3.35 EGA
Joe Saggese
2.84 EGA
Joseph Cipoletti
2.32 EGA
Game of Interest #5Boston USacred Heart1611See Our RecapTension Game Score: 174★The tension game score for this game was 174, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Boston U Min. Win Probability: 40%★The lowest win probability that Boston U had at any point during the game was 40%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 43★ ★The victory means a transfer of 43 Lax-ELO points from Sacred Heart to Boston U. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Boston U moves from 29th to 19th nationally; Sacred Heart goes from 41st to 49th.
When we are blessed with a day in which the slate of games numbers in the dozens, it is all but impossible to really keep track of all the goings on in D1 lacrosse. So we decided to put out a daily digest of the day that was. The idea here is to use some metrics that we can calculate for each game as a way to highlight the most meaningful or interesting matchups.
To rank games, we will be using three values:
Tension Game Score – a measure of how tight the game was. A back-and-forth match up where neither team is able to take control is going to have a lower tension score (i.e. smaller gap between the teams).
Min. Win Probability – the lowest win probability value that our model ascribed to the eventual winner during the course of the game. A game where the winner had to make a huge comeback is probably going to have a very low win probability (think about the moment that it seemed least likely that they’d come back).
Lax-ELO Transfer – a measure of how much an intridual game did to make us re-assess how good a certain team was. In a game where a favorite beats the underdog by as much as we thought they would, you don’t really update your priors about how good each team is. Those games would also transfer a relatively small number of Lax-ELO points.
We will present the metrics for each game, along with a star-based indicator to tell you how common or uncommon that outcome is. For example, a game in which the winning team had a win probability in the single digits is a rare occurence and would get 3 stars in that category.
We welcome your feedback, and we hope that this helps you to distill down the craziness of a full lacrosse slate into a more digestible list of highlights.