When we are blessed with a day in which the slate of games numbers in the dozens, it is all but impossible to really keep track of all the goings on in D1 lacrosse. So we decided to put out a daily digest of the day that was. The idea here is to use some metrics that we can calculate for each game as a way to highlight the most meaningful or interesting matchups.
To rank games, we will be using three values:
Tension Game Score – a measure of how tight the game was. A back-and-forth match up where neither team is able to take control is going to have a lower tension score (i.e. smaller gap between the teams).
Min. Win Probability – the lowest win probability value that our model ascribed to the eventual winner during the course of the game. A game where the winner had to make a huge comeback is probably going to have a very low win probability (think about the moment that it seemed least likely that they’d come back).
Lax-ELO Transfer – a measure of how much an intridual game did to make us re-assess how good a certain team was. In a game where a favorite beats the underdog by as much as we thought they would, you don’t really update your priors about how good each team is. Those games would also transfer a relatively small number of Lax-ELO points.
We will present the metrics for each game, along with a star-based indicator to tell you how common or uncommon that outcome is. For example, a game in which the winning team had a win probability in the single digits is a rare occurence and would get 3 stars in that category.
We welcome your feedback, and we hope that this helps you to distill down the craziness of a full lacrosse slate into a more digestible list of highlights.
Daily Digest: Feb 16, 2019
Daily Digest: Feb 16, 2019
Game of Interest #1RichmondBucknell1311See Our RecapThis game is a great example of why coaches stress ball security so much. With 2 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, Richmond was down 8-6. Over the final 17 minutes of the game, they outscored the Bison 7 to 3 en route to a 2-goal victory. The big difference for the Spiders: turnovers.
Up until that split point, both teams were roughly equivalent in terms of ball security. Both had 9 turnovers and just about 50% of the possession. After that split point though, the Spiders really cleaned it up. They had only 4 turnovers over the final 17 minutes, while holding the ball for 57% of the remaining time.
Simply put, they controlled the ball better than Bucknell did, and that allowed them to mount the comeback.
Tension Game Score: 62★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 62, which indicates an fairly close battle.Richmond Min. Win Probability: 19%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Richmond had at any point during the game was 19%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 27★The victory means a transfer of 27 Lax-ELO points from Bucknell to Richmond. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Richmond moves from 22nd to 18th nationally; Bucknell goes from 15th to 23rd.
Game of Interest #1RichmondBucknell1311See Our RecapThis game is a great example of why coaches stress ball security so much. With 2 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, Richmond was down 8-6. Over the final 17 minutes of the game, they outscored the Bison 7 to 3 en route to a 2-goal victory. The big difference for the Spiders: turnovers.
Up until that split point, both teams were roughly equivalent in terms of ball security. Both had 9 turnovers and just about 50% of the possession. After that split point though, the Spiders really cleaned it up. They had only 4 turnovers over the final 17 minutes, while holding the ball for 57% of the remaining time.
Simply put, they controlled the ball better than Bucknell did, and that allowed them to mount the comeback.
Tension Game Score: 62★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 62, which indicates an fairly close battle.Richmond Min. Win Probability: 19%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that Richmond had at any point during the game was 19%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 27★The victory means a transfer of 27 Lax-ELO points from Bucknell to Richmond. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Richmond moves from 22nd to 18th nationally; Bucknell goes from 15th to 23rd.
Game of Interest #2CanisiusMercer1310See Our RecapTension Game Score: 76★ ★The tension game score for this game was 76, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Canisius Min. Win Probability: 21%★ ★The lowest win probability that Canisius had at any point during the game was 21%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 33★ ★The victory means a transfer of 33 Lax-ELO points from Mercer to Canisius. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Canisius moves from 55th to 49th nationally; Mercer goes from 69th to 71st.
Game of Interest #2CanisiusMercer1310See Our RecapTension Game Score: 76★ ★The tension game score for this game was 76, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.Canisius Min. Win Probability: 21%★ ★The lowest win probability that Canisius had at any point during the game was 21%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 33★ ★The victory means a transfer of 33 Lax-ELO points from Mercer to Canisius. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Canisius moves from 55th to 49th nationally; Mercer goes from 69th to 71st.
Game of Interest #3High PointDrexel1514See Our RecapTension Game Score: 86★ ★The tension game score for this game was 86, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.High Point Min. Win Probability: 11%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that High Point had at any point during the game was 11%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 16★The victory means a transfer of 16 Lax-ELO points from Drexel to High Point. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), High Point moves from 29th to 27th nationally; Drexel goes from 49th to 51st.
Game of Interest #3High PointDrexel1514See Our RecapTension Game Score: 86★ ★The tension game score for this game was 86, which indicates a game that was more swing-y than tight throughout.High Point Min. Win Probability: 11%★ ★ ★The lowest win probability that High Point had at any point during the game was 11%, which suggests that you would not fault those that switched over to something more compelling.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 16★The victory means a transfer of 16 Lax-ELO points from Drexel to High Point. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), High Point moves from 29th to 27th nationally; Drexel goes from 49th to 51st.
Game of Interest #4Robert MorrisGeorgetown1114See Our RecapTension Game Score: 50★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 50, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Georgetown Min. Win Probability: 28%★ ★The lowest win probability that Georgetown had at any point during the game was 28%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 18★The victory means a transfer of 18 Lax-ELO points from Robert Morris to Georgetown. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Robert Morris moves from 10th to 13th nationally; Georgetown goes from 14th to 15th.
Game of Interest #4Robert MorrisGeorgetown1114See Our RecapTension Game Score: 50★ ★ ★The tension game score for this game was 50, which indicates an extremely close nail-biter.Georgetown Min. Win Probability: 28%★ ★The lowest win probability that Georgetown had at any point during the game was 28%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 18★The victory means a transfer of 18 Lax-ELO points from Robert Morris to Georgetown. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Robert Morris moves from 10th to 13th nationally; Georgetown goes from 14th to 15th.
Game of Interest #5PrincetonMonmouth237See Our RecapTension Game Score: 197★The tension game score for this game was 197, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Princeton Min. Win Probability: 47%★The lowest win probability that Princeton had at any point during the game was 47%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 69★ ★ ★The victory means a transfer of 69 Lax-ELO points from Monmouth to Princeton. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Princeton moves from 21st to 11th nationally; Monmouth goes from 28th to 44th.
Game of Interest #5PrincetonMonmouth237See Our RecapTension Game Score: 197★The tension game score for this game was 197, which means that it was not a very tight affair for the most part.Princeton Min. Win Probability: 47%★The lowest win probability that Princeton had at any point during the game was 47%, which means that while things never get truly dire, this was an uphill battle.Lax-ELO Points Transfer: 69★ ★ ★The victory means a transfer of 69 Lax-ELO points from Monmouth to Princeton. As a result of this transfer (and the rest of the games played), Princeton moves from 21st to 11th nationally; Monmouth goes from 28th to 44th.