1. CU77
    April 28, 2017 @ 4:09 pm

    Re Princeton: I think you’re confusing cause & effect. Princeton went quickly in games they were losing because they needed to catch up! A better vertical axis, IMO, would be time-averaged score differential; then I’d expect a positive correlation for all teams.


    • CU77
      April 28, 2017 @ 4:31 pm

      Even better would be goal differential at that moment vs time to first shot.


      • Zack
        May 1, 2017 @ 8:43 pm

        This is a great suggestion. You are right that the current approach will include garbage time possessions that may or may not reflect the team’s strategy. I created a second plot for Princeton that only includes possessions where either A) it’s after halftime and the score is tied or B) it’s before halftime and the score is within 1. The idea was to restrict the chart to only possessions where Princeton wouldn’t be impacted by the time/score so that the “strategy” could come through.

        In short, the Tiger losses are still the games where their average first shot came with fewer seconds of the possession having elapsed. I’ll continue to refine this analysis, but thanks again for the suggestion.


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